A5003421733- Climate variability and models
- Atmospheric and Environmental Gas Dynamics
- Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations
- Climate Change Policy and Economics
- Atmospheric chemistry and aerosols
- Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones Research
- Global Energy and Sustainability Research
- Energy, Environment, and Transportation Policies
- Flood Risk Assessment and Management
- Energy and Environment Impacts
- Scientific Computing and Data Management
- Agriculture Sustainability and Environmental Impact
- Atmospheric Ozone and Climate
- Fire effects on ecosystems
- Climate change impacts on agriculture
- Land Use and Ecosystem Services
- Geophysics and Gravity Measurements
- Cryospheric studies and observations
- Science and Climate Studies
- Hydrological Forecasting Using AI
- Hydrology and Drought Analysis
- Climate Change Communication and Perception
- Insurance and Financial Risk Management
- Ionosphere and magnetosphere dynamics
- Climate Change and Health Impacts
University of Oxford
2017-2025
Royal National Lifeboat Institution
1995
Abstract. Disastrous bushfires during the last months of 2019 and January 2020 affected Australia, raising question to what extent risk these fires was exacerbated by anthropogenic climate change. To answer for southeastern where were particularly severe, affecting people ecosystems, we use a physically based index fire weather, Fire Weather Index; long-term observations heat drought; 11 large ensembles state-of-the-art models. We find trends in Index fifth-generation European Centre...
Abstract. Simple climate models can be valuable if they are able to replicate aspects of complex fully coupled earth system models. Larger ensembles produced, enabling a probabilistic view future change. A simple emissions-based model, FAIR, is presented, which calculates atmospheric concentrations greenhouse gases and effective radiative forcing (ERF) from gases, aerosols, ozone other agents. Model runs constrained observed temperature change 1880 2016 produce range projections under the...
Abstract. Reduced-complexity climate models (RCMs) are critical in the policy and decision making space, directly used within multiple Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports to complement results of more comprehensive Earth system models. To date, evaluation RCMs has been limited a few independent studies. Here we introduce systematic form Reduced Complexity Model Intercomparison Project (RCMIP). We expect RCMIP will extend over phases, with Phase 1 being first. In 1, focus...
Abstract Heatwaves are becoming more frequent under climate change and can lead to thousands of excess deaths. Adaptation extreme weather events often occurs in response an event, with communities learning fast following unexpectedly impactful events. Using value statistics, here we show where regional temperature records statistically likely be exceeded, therefore might at-risk. In 31% regions examined, the observed daily maximum record is exceptional. Climate models suggest that similar...
Abstract. Here we present an update to the FaIR model for use in probabilistic future climate and scenario exploration, integrated assessment, policy analysis, education. In this have focussed on identifying a minimum level of structural complexity model. The result is set six equations, five which correspond standard impulse response used greenhouse gas (GHG) metric calculations IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report, plus one additional physically motivated equation represent state-dependent...
Over the last decades, climate science has evolved rapidly across multiple expert domains. Our best tools to capture state-of-the-art knowledge in an internally self-consistent modeling framework are increasingly complex fully coupled Earth System Models (ESMs). However, computational limitations and structural rigidity of ESMs mean that full range uncertainties domains difficult with alone. The choice instead more computationally efficient reduced complexity models (RCMs), which...
Abstract Nearly three billion people in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) rely on polluting fuels, resulting millions of avoidable deaths annually. Polluting fuels also emit short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs) greenhouse gases (GHGs). Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) grid-based electricity are scalable alternatives to but have raised health concerns. Here, we compare emissions impacts a business-as-usual household cooking fuel trajectory four large-scale transitions and/or grid 77 LMICs....
Abstract The 2021 Pacific Northwest heatwave was so extreme as to challenge conventional statistical and climate-model-based approaches weather attribution. However, state-of-the-art operational prediction systems are demonstrably able simulate the detailed physics of heatwave. Here, we leverage these show that human influence on climate made this event at least 8 [2–50] times more likely. At current rate global warming, likelihood such an is doubling every 20 [10–50] years. Given...
Abstract. Disastrous bushfires during the last months of 2019 and January 2020 affected Australia, raising question to what extent risk these fires was exacerbated by anthropogenic climate change. To answer for southeastern where were particularly severe, affecting people ecosystems, we use a physically-based index fire weather, Fire Weather Index, long-term observations heat drought, eleven large ensembles state-of-the-art models. In agreement with previous analyses find that extremes have...
© 2020 American Meteorological Society. For information regarding reuse of this content and general copyright information, consult the AMS Copyright Policy (www.ametsoc.org/PUBSReuseLicenses).CORRESPONDING AUTHOR: Nicholas J. Leach, leach@stx.ox.ac.ukA supplement to article is available online (10.1175/BAMS-D-19-0201.2)
Significance The question of how humans have influenced individual extreme weather events is both scientifically and socially important. However, deficiencies in climate models’ representations key mechanisms within the process chains that drive reduce our confidence estimates human influence on events. We propose using forecast models successfully predicted event could increase robustness such estimates. Using a successful means we can be confident model able to faithfully represent...
Abstract The relationship between cumulative CO 2 emissions and ‐induced warming is determined by the Transient Climate Response to Emissions (TCRE), but total anthropogenic also depends on non‐CO forcing, complicating interpretation of budgets based alone. An alternative frame in terms ‐forcing‐equivalent (CO ‐fe) emissions—the that would yield a given radiative forcing pathway. Unlike conventional “CO ‐equivalent” emissions, these are directly related TCRE need fall zero stabilize warming:...
Abstract There is an urgent need for countries to transition their national food and land-use systems toward nutritional security, climate stability, environmental integrity. How can satisfy demands while jointly delivering the required transformative change achieve global sustainability targets? Here, we present a collaborative approach developed with FABLE—Food, Agriculture, Biodiversity, Land, Energy—Consortium reconcile both elements developing system pathways. This includes three key...
Abstract. Simple climate models (also known as emulators) have re-emerged critical tools for the analysis of policy. Emulators are efficient and highly parameterised, where parameters tunable to produce a diversity global mean surface temperature (GMST) response pathways given emission scenario. Only small fraction possible parameter combinations will historically consistent hindcasts, necessary condition trust in future projections. Alongside historical GMST, additional observed (e.g. ocean...
Abstract. Simple climate models can be valuable if they are able to replicate aspects of complex fully coupled earth system models. Larger ensembles produced, enabling a probabilistic view future change. A simple emissions-based model, FAIR, is presented which calculates atmospheric concentrations greenhouse gases and effective radiative forcing (ERF) from gases, aerosols, ozone precursors other agents. The ERFs integrated into global mean surface temperature Model runs constrained observed...
Abstract. Here we present results from the first phase of Reduced Complexity Model Intercomparison Project (RCMIP). RCMIP is a systematic examination reduced complexity climate models (RCMs), which are used to complement and extend insights more complex Earth System Models (ESMs), in particular those participating Sixth Coupled (CMIP6). In Phase 1 RCMIP, with 14 namely ACC2, AR5IR (2 3 box versions), CICERO-SCM, ESCIMO, FaIR, GIR, GREB, Hector, Held et al. two layer model, MAGICC, MCE, OSCAR...
Abstract Agricultural and environmental policies are being fundamentally reviewed redesigned in the UK following its exit from European Union. The government Devolved Administrations recognise that current land use is not sustainable there now an unprecedented opportunity to define a better strategy responds fully interconnected challenges of climate change, biodiversity loss development. This paper presents evidence three pathways (current trends, medium ambition, high ambition) mid-century...
Advancements in the fields of remote sensing, and high-performance computing have facilitated higher resolution coverage global flood risk maps. However, distribution availability streamflow from in-situ gauges is not uniformly distributed, posing significant challenges. Machine learning (ML) offers a powerful framework to augment datasets by leveraging diverse data sources, such as climate reanalysis, hydrological simulations. This study explores application ML techniques generate synthetic...
Extreme heat can substantially impact worker productivity, causing fatigue, loss of focus, and illness in the workplace. As extreme increases under climate change, substantial reductions labour productivity are expected. According to some models, economic costs from decreased will be larger than any other related impacts, corporations therefore interested understanding their potential exposure vulnerability stress future. Workplace regulations (e.g. ISO) epidemiological studies have...
Storm Eunice was a severe windstorm that impacted Central Europe in February 2022, causing over €2.5 Bn insured loss. It formed on cold front west of the Azores before undergoing explosive cyclogenesis and tracking across Europe, producing recorded wind gusts up to 55 ms-1. The contribution climate change storm dynamics severity examined by Ermis et al., who found counterfactual weather forecasts - given an identical initial synoptic setup had measurably increased...
Since 2004, methods for event attribution have been developed across many groups. Early studies showed that answers to questions are sensitively dependent on the framing of study used but recently storyline not compared in detail.Here, we compare three common attribution, alongside probabilistic method, based midlatitude cyclone Babet. This storm caused flooding UK and Ireland October 2023. The flow analogues, pseudo-global warming, forecast-based attribution. We discuss four might be asked...
High-impact low-likelihood extreme weather events and their impacts are of considerable interest to a variety stakeholders across both the public private sectors. Within financial sector, there has been focus on understanding how these kinds extremes may change in future, quantifying impact such changes. However, we suggest that significant effort is still needed fully assess present day risk from extremes, especially given recent increase apparently “unprecedented”...
The private sector and industry are increasingly accessing physical climate data to a) identify disclose risk as required by regulations b) seek estimate limit both present future economic impacts of on their business.Projections associated changes in estimates losses typically provided stakeholders isolation from the wider social systemic picture. Whilst individual can take some measures minimise hazards, a collective approach conjunction with local communities public may be more effective,...
The frequency and intensity of some extreme weather events, such as heatwaves,are increasing due to climate change, with significant implications for socio-economicsectors globally. This study focuses on the question how we quantify rate atwhich probability these severe events is changing, enhancing our ability tosupport effective adaptation strategies deepen understanding climatechange’s diverse impacts different regions populations. Our initial casestudy uses ECMWF’s...