A5081432859- Climate variability and models
- Flood Risk Assessment and Management
- Climate Change and Health Impacts
- Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations
- Hydrology and Drought Analysis
- Climate change impacts on agriculture
- Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones Research
- Agricultural risk and resilience
- Disaster Management and Resilience
- Climate Change, Adaptation, Migration
- Fire effects on ecosystems
- Tree-ring climate responses
- ICT in Developing Communities
- Forensic Fingerprint Detection Methods
- Space Science and Extraterrestrial Life
- Poverty, Education, and Child Welfare
- Video Analysis and Summarization
- Wind and Air Flow Studies
- Digital Games and Media
- Insurance and Financial Risk Management
- International Development and Aid
- Sustainability and Climate Change Governance
- Urban Green Space and Health
- Evaluation and Performance Assessment
- Climate Change and Geoengineering
Climate Centre
2014-2023
University of Twente
2021-2023
American Red Cross
2013-2022
Institute of Development Studies
2017
University of Technology Sydney
2017
Norwegian University of Life Sciences
2017
During August 25–30, 2017, Hurricane Harvey stalled over Texas and caused extreme precipitation, particularly Houston the surrounding area on 26–28. This resulted in extensive flooding with 80 fatalities large economic costs. It was an extremely rare event: return period of highest observed three-day precipitation amount, 1043.4 mm 3dy−1 at Baytown, is more than 9000 years (97.5% one-sided confidence interval) periods exceeded 1000 yr (750 3dy−1) a current climate. Observations since 1880...
Abstract. Disastrous bushfires during the last months of 2019 and January 2020 affected Australia, raising question to what extent risk these fires was exacerbated by anthropogenic climate change. To answer for southeastern where were particularly severe, affecting people ecosystems, we use a physically based index fire weather, Fire Weather Index; long-term observations heat drought; 11 large ensembles state-of-the-art models. We find trends in Index fifth-generation European Centre...
Abstract. Towards the end of June 2021, temperature records were broken by several degrees Celsius in cities Pacific Northwest areas US and Canada, leading to spikes sudden deaths sharp increases emergency calls hospital visits for heat-related illnesses. Here we present a multi-model, multi-method attribution analysis investigate extent which human-induced climate change has influenced probability intensity extreme heat waves this region. Based on observations, modelling classical...
Abstract. Over the last few years, methods have been developed to answer questions on effect of global warming recent extreme events. Many “event attribution” studies now performed, a sizeable fraction even within weeks event, increase usefulness results. In doing these analyses, it has become apparent that attribution itself is only one step an extended process leads from observation event successfully communicated statement. this paper we detail protocol was by World Weather Attribution...
The last few years have seen an explosion of interest in extreme event attribution, the science estimating influence human activities or other factors on probability and characteristics observed weather climate event. This is driven by public interest, but also has practical applications decision-making after for raising awareness current future change impacts. World Weather Attribution (WWA) collaboration over 5 developed a methodology to answer these questions scientifically rigorous way...
Abstract. A stationary low pressure system and elevated levels of precipitable water provided a nearly continuous source precipitation over Louisiana, United States (US), starting around 10 August 2016. Precipitation was heaviest in the region broadly encompassing city Baton Rouge, with 3-day maximum found at station Livingston, LA (east Rouge), from 12 to 14 2016 (648.3 mm, 25.5 inches). The intense followed by inland flash flooding river subsequent days produced additional backwater...
Abstract. Towards the end of June 2021, temperature records were broken by several degrees Celsius in cities Pacific northwest areas U.S. and Canada, leading to spikes sudden deaths, sharp increases hospital visits for heat-related illnesses emergency calls. Here we present a multi-model, multi-method attribution analysis investigate what extent human-induced climate change has influenced probability intensity extreme heatwaves this region. Based on observations modeling, occurrence heatwave...
In July 2021 extreme rainfall across Western Europe caused severe flooding and substantial impacts, including over 200 fatalities extensive infrastructure damage within Germany the Benelux countries. After event, a hydrological assessment probabilistic event attribution analysis of data were initiated complemented by discussing vulnerability exposure context. The global mean surface temperature (GMST) served as covariate in generalised value distribution fitted to observational model data,...
Abstract As a direct consequence of extreme monsoon rainfall throughout the summer 2022 season Pakistan experienced worst flooding in its history. We employ probabilistic event attribution methodology as well detailed assessment dynamics to understand role climate change this event. Many available state-of-the-art models struggle simulate these characteristics. Those that pass our evaluation test generally show much smaller likelihood and intensity than trend we found observations. This...
From October 2020 to early 2023, Eastern Africa experienced five consecutive failed rainy seasons, resulting in the worst drought 40 years. This led harvest failures, livestock losses, water scarcity, and conflicts, leaving approximately 4.35 million people need of humanitarian aid. To understand role human-induced climate change drought, we analysed rainfall trends combined effect deficit with high temperatures Southern Horn covering parts southern Ethiopia, Somalia, eastern Kenya. We...
ABSTRACT In 2016 and continuing into 2017, Kenya experienced drought conditions, with over 3 million people in need of food aid due to low rainfall during 2016. Whenever extreme events like this happen, questions are raised about the role climate change how natural variability such as El Niño ‐ Southern Oscillation influenced likelihood intensity event. Here we aim quantify relative contributions different drivers by applying three independent methodologies event attribution. Analysing...
Nairobi, Kenya exhibits a wide variety of micro-climates and heterogeneous surfaces. Paved roads high-rise buildings interspersed with low vegetation typify the central business district, while large neighborhoods informal settlements or "slums" are characterized by dense, tin housing, little vegetation, limited access to public utilities services. To investigate how heat varies within we deployed high density observation network in 2015/2016 examine summertime temperature humidity. We show...
Abstract. Disastrous bushfires during the last months of 2019 and January 2020 affected Australia, raising question to what extent risk these fires was exacerbated by anthropogenic climate change. To answer for southeastern where were particularly severe, affecting people ecosystems, we use a physically-based index fire weather, Fire Weather Index, long-term observations heat drought, eleven large ensembles state-of-the-art models. In agreement with previous analyses find that extremes have...
Abstract. In the 2022 summer, western–central Europe and several other regions in northern extratropics experienced substantial soil moisture deficits wake of precipitation shortages elevated temperatures. Much has not witnessed a more severe drought since at least mid-20th century, raising question whether this is manifestation our warming climate. Here, we employ well-established statistical approach to attribute low summer human-induced climate change using observation-driven estimates...
Abstract. In the 2022 summer, West-Central Europe and several other northern-hemisphere mid-latitude regions experienced substantial soil moisture deficits in wake of precipitation shortages elevated temperatures. Much has not witnessed a more severe drought since at least mid-20th century, raising question whether this is manifestation our warming climate. Here, we employ well-established statistical approach to attribute low summer human-induced climate change, using observation-driven...
Humanitarian organizations are increasingly interested in using seasonal forecasts to prepare for and mitigate the impacts of potential disasters before they begin. El Niño teleconnections increase predictability flooding drought events Southern Eastern Africa, providing humanitarian stakeholders with advanced warning weather events. This study draws on evidence from key-informant interviews government officials five African countries (Zambia, Somalia, Kenya, Ethiopia, Malawi) better...
Abstract In March 2022, large parts over the north Indian plains including breadbasket region, and southern Pakistan began experiencing prolonged heat, which continued into May. The event was exacerbated due to prevailing dry conditions in resulting devastating consequences for public health agriculture. Using attribution methods, we analyse role of human-induced climate change altering chances such an event. To capture extent impacts, choose March–April average daily maximum temperature...
Abstract As global studies of climate change depict increasingly dire outcomes extreme heat, there is an urgent need to understand the appropriateness heatwave definitions and temperature datasets in different parts world. We carry out intercomparison CHIRTS gridded station-satellite dataset with three reanalysis products, ERA5, NCEP-DOE Reanalysis 2, MERRA2, assess biases absolute value heat events distribution events. find close agreement between all four magnitude temperatures, a cold...
Climate shocks contribute to a significant share of the humanitarian burden, and are key factor in increasing poverty food insecurity. Social protection is increasingly recognised as an instrument help build resilience climate risks through long-term, large-scale national systems. However, most experiences date have focused on social protection's role for chronic needs, or at best, shock-response, rather than anticipation prevention.This article argues that can support more effective...
Abstract Southern Madagascar recently experienced a severe food security crisis, made significantly worse by well below average rainfall from July 2019 to June 2021. This exceptional drought has affected region with high pre-existing levels of vulnerability insecurity (subsistence agriculture and pastoralism in the is rain-fed only), while impacts have been compounded further COVID-19 restrictions pest infestations. The rainy seasons both 2019/20 2020/21 saw just 60% normal across Grand...
Abstract. A stationary low pressure system and elevated levels of precipitable water provided a nearly continuous source precipitation over Louisiana, United States (U.S.) starting around 10 August, 2016. Precipitation was heaviest in the region broadly encompassing city Baton Rouge, with three-day maximum found at station Livingston, LA (east Rouge) from 12–14 2016 (648.3 mm, 25.5 inches). The intense followed by inland flash flooding river subsequent days produced additional backwater...