A5051679222- Climate variability and models
- Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations
- Hydrology and Drought Analysis
- Flood Risk Assessment and Management
- Climate Change and Health Impacts
- Climate change impacts on agriculture
- Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones Research
- Climate Change, Adaptation, Migration
- Disaster Management and Resilience
- Tree-ring climate responses
- Urban Heat Island Mitigation
- Hydrology and Watershed Management Studies
- Sustainability and Climate Change Governance
- Forensic Fingerprint Detection Methods
- Climate change and permafrost
- Climate Change and Geoengineering
- Insurance and Financial Risk Management
- Aeolian processes and effects
- Fire effects on ecosystems
- Indian Economic and Social Development
- Plant Water Relations and Carbon Dynamics
- Space exploration and regulation
- Space Science and Extraterrestrial Life
- Hydrological Forecasting Using AI
- Climate Change Policy and Economics
Climate Centre
2016-2023
Columbia University
2023
Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute
2018-2020
South African Tuberculosis Vaccine Initiative
2020
University of Cape Town
2020
University of Oxford
2018-2020
Kenya Wildlife Service
2020
Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique
2018
Milieux environnementaux, transferts et interactions dans les hydrosystèmes et les sols
2018
Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines
2018
During August 25–30, 2017, Hurricane Harvey stalled over Texas and caused extreme precipitation, particularly Houston the surrounding area on 26–28. This resulted in extensive flooding with 80 fatalities large economic costs. It was an extremely rare event: return period of highest observed three-day precipitation amount, 1043.4 mm 3dy−1 at Baytown, is more than 9000 years (97.5% one-sided confidence interval) periods exceeded 1000 yr (750 3dy−1) a current climate. Observations since 1880...
Abstract. Disastrous bushfires during the last months of 2019 and January 2020 affected Australia, raising question to what extent risk these fires was exacerbated by anthropogenic climate change. To answer for southeastern where were particularly severe, affecting people ecosystems, we use a physically based index fire weather, Fire Weather Index; long-term observations heat drought; 11 large ensembles state-of-the-art models. We find trends in Index fifth-generation European Centre...
Abstract. Towards the end of June 2021, temperature records were broken by several degrees Celsius in cities Pacific Northwest areas US and Canada, leading to spikes sudden deaths sharp increases emergency calls hospital visits for heat-related illnesses. Here we present a multi-model, multi-method attribution analysis investigate extent which human-induced climate change has influenced probability intensity extreme heat waves this region. Based on observations, modelling classical...
The last few years have seen an explosion of interest in extreme event attribution, the science estimating influence human activities or other factors on probability and characteristics observed weather climate event. This is driven by public interest, but also has practical applications decision-making after for raising awareness current future change impacts. World Weather Attribution (WWA) collaboration over 5 developed a methodology to answer these questions scientifically rigorous way...
In the period 2015–2017, Western Cape region has suffered from three consecutive years of below average rainfall—leading to a prolonged drought and acute water shortages, most prominently in city Town. After testing that precipitation deficit is primary driver behind reduced surface availability, we undertake multi-method attribution analysis for meteorological drought, defined terms 3 running mean averaged over area. The exact estimate return time event sensitive number stations whose data...
Abstract. A stationary low pressure system and elevated levels of precipitable water provided a nearly continuous source precipitation over Louisiana, United States (US), starting around 10 August 2016. Precipitation was heaviest in the region broadly encompassing city Baton Rouge, with 3-day maximum found at station Livingston, LA (east Rouge), from 12 to 14 2016 (648.3 mm, 25.5 inches). The intense followed by inland flash flooding river subsequent days produced additional backwater...
Abstract. Towards the end of June 2021, temperature records were broken by several degrees Celsius in cities Pacific northwest areas U.S. and Canada, leading to spikes sudden deaths, sharp increases hospital visits for heat-related illnesses emergency calls. Here we present a multi-model, multi-method attribution analysis investigate what extent human-induced climate change has influenced probability intensity extreme heatwaves this region. Based on observations modeling, occurrence heatwave...
In July 2021 extreme rainfall across Western Europe caused severe flooding and substantial impacts, including over 200 fatalities extensive infrastructure damage within Germany the Benelux countries. After event, a hydrological assessment probabilistic event attribution analysis of data were initiated complemented by discussing vulnerability exposure context. The global mean surface temperature (GMST) served as covariate in generalised value distribution fitted to observational model data,...
Abstract As a direct consequence of extreme monsoon rainfall throughout the summer 2022 season Pakistan experienced worst flooding in its history. We employ probabilistic event attribution methodology as well detailed assessment dynamics to understand role climate change this event. Many available state-of-the-art models struggle simulate these characteristics. Those that pass our evaluation test generally show much smaller likelihood and intensity than trend we found observations. This...
Abstract. On 19 May 2016 the afternoon temperature reached 51.0 °C in Phalodi northwest of India – a new record for highest observed maximum India. The previous year, widely reported very lethal heat wave occurred southeast, Andhra Pradesh and Telangana, killing thousands people. In both cases it was assumed that probability severity waves are increasing due to global warming, as they do other parts world. However, we not find positive trends year most since 1970s (except spurious missing...
Abstract In northern and central Ethiopia, 2015 was a very dry year. Rainfall only from one-half to three-quarters of the usual amount, with both “belg” (February–May) “kiremt” rains (June–September) affected. The timing that did fall also erratic. Many crops failed, causing food shortages for many millions people. role climate change in probability drought like this is investigated, focusing on large-scale precipitation deficit February–September Ethiopia. Using gridded analysis combines...
ABSTRACT In 2016 and continuing into 2017, Kenya experienced drought conditions, with over 3 million people in need of food aid due to low rainfall during 2016. Whenever extreme events like this happen, questions are raised about the role climate change how natural variability such as El Niño ‐ Southern Oscillation influenced likelihood intensity event. Here we aim quantify relative contributions different drivers by applying three independent methodologies event attribution. Analysing...
Abstract Extreme weather and climate events associated with El Niño La Niña cause massive societal impacts. Therefore, observations forecasts are used around the world to prepare for such events. However, global warming has caused warm seem bigger than they are, while cold smaller, in commonly Niño3.4 index (sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies over 5 ∘ S–5 N, 120–170 W). We propose a simple elegant adjustment, defining relative as difference between original SST anomaly all tropical...
Abstract Since 2019, Central South America (CSA) has been reeling under drought conditions, with the last 4 months of 2022 receiving only 44% average total precipitation. Simultaneously to drought, a series record-breaking heat waves affected region. The rainfall deficit during October–November-December (OND) is highly correlated Niño3.4 index, indicating that OND partly driven by La Niña, as observed in previous droughts this To identify whether human-induced climate change was also driver...
Abstract. In August 2017 Bangladesh faced one of its worst river flooding events in recent history. This paper presents, for the first time, an attribution this precipitation-induced to anthropogenic climate change from a combined meteorological and hydrological perspective. Experiments were conducted with three observational datasets two models estimate changes extreme 10-day precipitation event frequency over Brahmaputra basin up present and, additionally, outlook 2 ∘C warming since...
Abstract. Several major storms pounded western Europe in January 2018, generating large damages and casualties. The two most impactful ones, Eleanor Friederike, are analysed here the context of climate change. Near surface wind speed station observations exhibit a decreasing trend frequency strong winds associated with such storms. High-resolution regional models, on other hand, show no up to now small increase storminess future due This shows that factors than change, which not caused...
Abstract. In the 2022 summer, western–central Europe and several other regions in northern extratropics experienced substantial soil moisture deficits wake of precipitation shortages elevated temperatures. Much has not witnessed a more severe drought since at least mid-20th century, raising question whether this is manifestation our warming climate. Here, we employ well-established statistical approach to attribute low summer human-induced climate change using observation-driven estimates...
Abstract The extreme precipitation that resulted in historic flooding central-northern France began 26 May 2016 and was linked to a large cutoff low. floods caused some casualties over billion euros damage. To objectively answer the question of whether anthropogenic climate change played role, near-real-time “rapid” attribution analysis performed, using well-established event methods, best available observational data, as many simulations possible within time frame. This study confirms...
Abstract The science of event attribution has emerged to routinely answer the question whether and what extent human-induced climate change altered likelihood intensity recently observed extreme weather events. In Europe a pilot program operationalize method started in November 2019, highlighting demand for timely information on role when it is needed most: direct aftermath an event. Independent studies are provided operationally or as academic studies, necessity good observational data...
With recent growth in funding and research on “resilience building”, interest climate services has risen dramatically. Included this trend is an increased emphasis the use of weather information for a range purposes across multiple scales. Non-governmental organisations (NGOs) other non-state actors Africa have responded accordingly, are increasingly acting as brokers, sometimes producers, part their activities. Drawing from Burkina Faso Ethiopia Building Resilience Adaptation to Climate...
Abstract. In the 2022 summer, West-Central Europe and several other northern-hemisphere mid-latitude regions experienced substantial soil moisture deficits in wake of precipitation shortages elevated temperatures. Much has not witnessed a more severe drought since at least mid-20th century, raising question whether this is manifestation our warming climate. Here, we employ well-established statistical approach to attribute low summer human-induced climate change, using observation-driven...
Abstract In March 2022, large parts over the north Indian plains including breadbasket region, and southern Pakistan began experiencing prolonged heat, which continued into May. The event was exacerbated due to prevailing dry conditions in resulting devastating consequences for public health agriculture. Using attribution methods, we analyse role of human-induced climate change altering chances such an event. To capture extent impacts, choose March–April average daily maximum temperature...
Abstract. The extreme precipitation that would result in historic flooding across areas of northeastern France and southern Germany began on May 26th when a large cut-off low spurred the development several slow moving pressure disturbances. took different forms each country. Warm humid air from south fueled sustained, large-scale, heavy rainfall over resulting significant river Seine Loire (and their tributaries), whereas rain came smaller clusters intense thunderstorms triggering flash...
Humanitarian organizations are increasingly interested in using seasonal forecasts to prepare for and mitigate the impacts of potential disasters before they begin. El Niño teleconnections increase predictability flooding drought events Southern Eastern Africa, providing humanitarian stakeholders with advanced warning weather events. This study draws on evidence from key-informant interviews government officials five African countries (Zambia, Somalia, Kenya, Ethiopia, Malawi) better...