A5005516068- Climate variability and models
- Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations
- Flood Risk Assessment and Management
- Hydrology and Drought Analysis
- Hydrology and Watershed Management Studies
- Cryospheric studies and observations
- Climate Change and Health Impacts
- Scientific Computing and Data Management
- Cardiovascular Function and Risk Factors
- Climate change impacts on agriculture
- Medical Imaging Techniques and Applications
- Cancer, Hypoxia, and Metabolism
- Distributed and Parallel Computing Systems
- Cloud Computing and Resource Management
- Remote Sensing and LiDAR Applications
- Water-Energy-Food Nexus Studies
- Water resources management and optimization
- Oceanographic and Atmospheric Processes
- Atmospheric and Environmental Gas Dynamics
- Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones Research
- Peatlands and Wetlands Ecology
- Fire effects on ecosystems
- Lymphoma Diagnosis and Treatment
- Infrastructure Resilience and Vulnerability Analysis
- Ionosphere and magnetosphere dynamics
Clifton Hospital
2024
At Bristol
2022-2024
University of Bristol
2018-2022
Cabot (United States)
2019
University of Oxford
2015-2018
Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation
2013-2015
CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere
2013-2014
Collaboration for Australian Weather and Climate Research
2013
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory
2013
The Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator coupled model (ACCESS-CM) has been developed at the Centre for Weather Research (CAWCR), a partnership between CSIRO 1 Bureau of Meteorology.It is built by coupling UK Met Office atmospheric unified (UM), other sub-models as required, to ACCESS ocean model, which consists NOAA/GFDL 2 MOM4p1 LANL 3 sea-ice CICE4.1,under CERFACS 4 OASIS3.2-5coupling framework.The primary goal ACCESS-CM development provide climate community with new...
Abstract Elevation data are fundamental to many applications, especially in geosciences. The latest global elevation contains forest and building artifacts that limit its usefulness for applications require precise terrain heights, particular flood simulation. Here, we use machine learning remove buildings forests from the Copernicus Digital Model produce, first time, a map of with removed at 1 arc second (∼30 m) grid spacing. We train our correction algorithm on unique set reference 12...
Abstract. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has accepted the invitation from UNFCCC to provide a special report impacts of global warming 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels and related greenhouse-gas emission pathways. Many current experiments in, for example, Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP), are not specifically designed informing this report. Here, we document design half degree additional warming, projections, prognosis (HAPPI) experiment. HAPPI provides...
Abstract. On 19 May 2016 the afternoon temperature reached 51.0 °C in Phalodi northwest of India – a new record for highest observed maximum India. The previous year, widely reported very lethal heat wave occurred southeast, Andhra Pradesh and Telangana, killing thousands people. In both cases it was assumed that probability severity waves are increasing due to global warming, as they do other parts world. However, we not find positive trends year most since 1970s (except spurious missing...
Abstract Augmenting previous papers about the exceptional 2011–2015 California drought, we offer new perspectives on “snow drought” that extended into Oregon in 2014 and Washington 2015. Over 80% of measurement sites west 115°W experienced record low snowpack 2015, estimate a return period 400–1000 years for California's under questionable assumption stationarity. Hydrologic modeling supports conclusion 2015 was most severe by wide margin. Using crowd‐sourced superensemble regional climate...
ABSTRACT In 2016 and continuing into 2017, Kenya experienced drought conditions, with over 3 million people in need of food aid due to low rainfall during 2016. Whenever extreme events like this happen, questions are raised about the role climate change how natural variability such as El Niño ‐ Southern Oscillation influenced likelihood intensity event. Here we aim quantify relative contributions different drivers by applying three independent methodologies event attribution. Analysing...
On 4–6 December 2015, storm Desmond caused very heavy rainfall in Northern England and Southern Scotland which led to widespread flooding. A week after the event we provided an initial assessment of influence anthropogenic climate change on likelihood one-day precipitation events averaged over area encompassing using data methods available immediately occurred. The analysis was based three independent extreme attribution: historical observed trends, coupled model simulations a large ensemble...
Southeast Brazil experienced profound water shortages in 2014/15. Anthropogenic climate change is not found to be a major influence on the hazard, whereas increasing population and consumption increased vulnerability.
Abstract Global flood mapping has developed rapidly over the past decade, but previous approaches have limited scope, function, and accuracy. These limitations restrict applicability fundamental science questions that can be answered with existing model frameworks. Harnessing recently available data modeling methods, this paper presents a new global ∼30 m resolution Flood Map (GFM) complete coverage of fluvial, pluvial, coastal perils, for any return period or climate scenario, including...
There are two versions of global coupled climate models developed at the Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research (CAWCR) participating in phase 5 Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP5), namely ACCESS1.0 AC-CESS1.3.This paper describes CMIP5 experimental configuration AC-CESS forcings historical future scenario runs.We also present an initial analysis model results, concentrating on changes surface air temperature hydrologic cycle, sensitivity.Both somewhat underestimate...
Abstract. Extreme weather events can have large impacts on society and, in many regions, are expected to change frequency and intensity with climate change. Owing the relatively short observational record, models useful tools as they allow for generation of a larger sample extreme events, attribute recent anthropogenic change, project changes such into future. The modelling system known weather@home, consisting global model (GCM) nested regional (RCM) driven by sea surface temperatures,...
Abstract The year 2014 broke the record for warmest yearly average temperature in Europe. Attributing how much this was due to anthropogenic climate change and it natural variability is a challenging question but one that important address. In study, we compare four event attribution methods. We look at risk ratio (RR) associated with event, over whole European region, as well its spatial distribution. Each method shows very strong influence on However, magnitude of RR strongly depends...
Current greenhouse gas mitigation ambition is consistent with ~3°C global mean warming above preindustrial levels. There a clear need to strengthen stabilize the climate at Paris Agreement goal of less than 2°C. We specify differences in city-level heat-related mortality between 3°C trajectory and 2° 1.5°C. Focusing on 15 U.S. cities where reliable health data are available, we show that ratcheting up achieve 2°C threshold could avoid 70 1980 annual deaths per city during extreme events...
On June 28, 2019, a temperature of 45·9°C was recorded at weather station in France, exceeding the country's previous record—set during infamous 2003 heatwave—by almost 2°C. The heatwave peaked over central and northern Europe, fuelled by very persistent planetary-scale Rossby wave (giant meanders upper-tropospheric winds), which turned into an omega block, so named because its shape resembles Greek letter (Ω). This blocking event led to hot air from Africa being transferred Europe...
Abstract Given the Paris Agreement it is imperative there greater understanding of consequences limiting global warming to target 1.5° and 2°C levels above preindustrial conditions. It challenging quantify changes across a small increment warming, so pattern-scaling approach may be considered. Here we investigate validity such an by comprehensively examining how well local temperatures trends in 1.5°C world predict at 2°C. Ensembles transient coupled climate simulations from multiple models...
Abstract Flood hazard is a global problem, but regions such as south Asia, where people’s livelihoods are highly dependent on water resources, can be affected disproportionally. The 2017 monsoon flooding in the Ganges–Brahmaputra–Meghna (GBM) basin, with record river levels observed, resulted ∼1200 deaths, and dramatic loss of crops infrastructure. recent Paris Agreement called for research into impacts avoided by stabilizing climate at 1.5 °C over 2 warming above pre-industrial conditions....
Within the last decade, extreme weather event attribution has emerged as a new field of science and garnered increasing attention from wider scientific community public. Numerous methods have been put forward to determine contribution anthropogenic climate change individual events. So far nearly all such analyses were done months after an happened. Here we present method which can assess fraction attributable risk severe due external driver in real-time. The builds on large ensemble...
Global and regional diagnostics are used to evaluate the ocean performance of Australian Community Climate Earth System Simulator coupled model (ACCESS-CM) contributions Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5). Two versions ACCESS-CM have been submitted CMIP; namely CSIRO-BOM ACCESS1.0 ACCESS1.3. Results from six core CMIP5 experiments (piControl, historical, rcp45, rcp85, 1pctCO2, abrupt4xCO2) evaluated for each two versions. Overall, both exhibit a reasonable stable representation...
Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) describe the earth surface’s topography and are an important source of information for applications physical modelling, engineering many others. Flood inundation where water flows determined by terrain slope, is also highly dependent on DEM quality. The most accurate DEMs currently available sourced from airborne LiDAR, however these only cover a small fraction globe, leaving majority globe satellite imagery. Satellite based have limitations...
Cloud computing is a mature technology that has already shown benefits for wide range of academic research domains that, in turn, utilize application design models. In this paper, we discuss the use cloud as tool to improve resources available climate science, presenting evaluation two different Each was customized way run public environments (hereafter computing) provided by three vendors: Amazon, Google and Microsoft. The adaptations procedures necessary models these are described....
Abstract. A convolution-based method of spectral nudging atmospheric fields is developed in the Australian Community Climate and Earth Systems Simulator (ACCESS) version 1.3 which uses UK Met Office Unified Model 7.3 as its component. The use convolutions allow for flexibility application to different grids. An approximation using one-dimensional applied, improving time taken by scheme 10–30 times compared with a two-dimensional convolution, without measurably degrading performance. Care...
Abstract Precipitation events cause disruption around the world and will be altered by climate change. However, different modeling approaches can result in future precipitation projections. The corresponding “method uncertainty” is rarely explicitly calculated impact studies major reports but substantially change estimated changes. A comparison across five commonly used activities shows that, for changes mean precipitation, less than half of regions analyzed had significant between present...
Abstract. On 19 May 2016 the afternoon temperature reached 51.0 ºC in Phalodi northwest of India, a new record for highest observed maximum India. The previous year, widely-reported very lethal heat wave occurred southeast, Andhra Pradesh and Telangana, killing thousands people. In both cases it was widely assumed that probability severity waves India are increasing due to global warming, as they do other parts world. However, we not find positive trends year most since 1970s (except...