A5047035409- Flood Risk Assessment and Management
- Climate variability and models
- Climate change impacts on agriculture
- Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones Research
- Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations
- Hydrology and Drought Analysis
- Disaster Management and Resilience
- Climate Change, Adaptation, Migration
- Hydrology and Watershed Management Studies
- Agricultural risk and resilience
- Climate Change and Health Impacts
- Sustainability and Climate Change Governance
- Water resources management and optimization
- Climate Change Policy and Economics
- Insurance and Financial Risk Management
- Air Quality and Health Impacts
- Data-Driven Disease Surveillance
- Food Security and Socioeconomic Dynamics
- Disaster Response and Management
- Rangeland Management and Livestock Ecology
- Water-Energy-Food Nexus Studies
- Geographic Information Systems Studies
- Precipitation Measurement and Analysis
- Birth, Development, and Health
- HIV/AIDS Impact and Responses
Tufts University
2021-2025
Climate Centre
2016-2025
Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam
2015-2021
Columbia University
2015-2021
Universidad Tecnológica del Perú
2020-2021
Higher Institute of Technologies and Applied Sciences
2004
Significance Understanding the vulnerability of societies around world is crucial for understanding historical trends in flood risk and producing accurate projections fatalities losses. We reproduced river occurrence using daily climate data period 1980–2010 quantified natural socioeconomic contributions to trends. show that losses as a share exposed population gross domestic product are decreasing with rising income. also there tendency convergence levels between low- high-income countries....
ABSTRACT While seasonal outlooks have been operational for many years, until recently the extended‐range timescale referred to as subseasonal‐to‐seasonal ( S2S ) has received little attention. prediction fills gap between short‐range weather and long‐range outlooks. Decisions in a range of sectors are made this lead time; therefore, there is strong demand new generation forecasts. International efforts under way identify key sources predictability, improve forecast skill operationalize...
Abstract. Disaster risk reduction efforts traditionally focus on long-term preventative measures or post-disaster response. Outside of these, there are many short-term actions, such as evacuation, that can be implemented in the period time between a warning and potential disaster to reduce impacts. However, this precious window opportunity is regularly overlooked case climate weather forecasts, which indicate heightened but rarely used initiate action. Barriers range from protracted debate...
Abstract. Extreme flooding impacts millions of people that live within the Amazon floodplain. Global hydrological models (GHMs) are frequently used to assess and inform management flood risk, but knowledge on skill available is required their use development. This paper presents an intercomparison eight different GHMs freely from collaborators Flood Partnership (GFP) for simulating floods in basin. To gain insight into strengths shortcomings each model, we ability reproduce daily annual peak...
Humanitarian organizations have a crucial role in response and relief efforts after floods. The effectiveness of disaster is contingent on accurate timely information regarding the location, timing impacts event. Here we show how two near-real-time data sources, satellite observations water coverage flood-related social media activity from Twitter, can be used to support rapid response, using case-studies Philippines Pakistan. For these countries analyze organizations, Global Flood Detection...
Every year riverine flooding affects millions of people in developing countries, due to the large population exposure floodplains and lack adequate flood protection measures. Preparedness monitoring are effective ways reduce risk. State-of-the-art technologies relying on satellite remote sensing as well numerical hydrological weather predictions can detect monitor severe events at a global scale. This paper describes emerging role Global Flood Partnership (GFP), network scientists, users,...
Climate resilience is increasingly prioritized by international development agencies and national governments. However, current approaches to informing communities of future climate risk are problematic. The predominant focus on end‐of‐century projections neglects more pressing concerns, which relate the management shorter‐term risks variability, constitutes a substantial opportunity cost for limited financial human resources available tackle challenges. When long‐term view genuinely...
Abstract This paper proposes a heat-wave definition for Bangladesh that could be used to trigger preparedness measures in heat early warning system (HEWS) and explores the climate mechanisms associated with waves. A HEWS requires of waves is both related human health outcomes forecastable. No such has been developed Bangladesh. Using generalized additive regression model, proposed elevated minimum maximum daily temperatures over 95th percentile 3 consecutive days, confirming importance...
Southeast Brazil experienced profound water shortages in 2014/15. Anthropogenic climate change is not found to be a major influence on the hazard, whereas increasing population and consumption increased vulnerability.
Abstract. Too often, credible scientific early warning information of increased disaster risk does not result in humanitarian action. With financial resources tilted heavily towards response after a disaster, managers have limited incentive and ability to process complex data, including uncertainties. These incentives are beginning change, with the advent several new forecast-based financing systems that provide funding based on forecast an extreme event. Given changing landscape, here we...
Abstract Extreme heat events impact people and ecosystems across the globe, they are becoming more frequent intense in a warming climate. Responses to span sectors geographic boundaries. Prior research has documented technologies or options that can be deployed manage extreme examples of how individuals, communities, governments other stakeholder groups adapting heat. However, comprehensive understanding current state implemented adaptations—where, why, what extent occurring—has not been...
Abstract Extreme weather and climate events associated with El Niño La Niña cause massive societal impacts. Therefore, observations forecasts are used around the world to prepare for such events. However, global warming has caused warm seem bigger than they are, while cold smaller, in commonly Niño3.4 index (sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies over 5 ∘ S–5 N, 120–170 W). We propose a simple elegant adjustment, defining relative as difference between original SST anomaly all tropical...
In 2017, Bangladesh experienced the worst floods in recent decades. Based on a forecast and pre-defined trigger level, Red Cross Crescent project distributed an unconditional cash grant of BDT 5000 (USD 60 equivalent) to 1039 poor households highly vulnerable, flood-prone communities Brahmaputra river basin before early flood peak. Systems that can deliver forecast-based grants are potential adaptation strategy deal with changes extreme events linked climate change. This paper presents...
East Africa experiences chronic food insecurity, with levels varying from year-to-year across the region. Given that much can be done to prevent this level of suffering before it happens, humanitarian agencies monitor early indicators insecurity trigger action. Forecasts total seasonal rainfall are one tool used and anticipate security outcomes. Factors beyond rainfall, such as conflict, key determinants whether lack become a problem. In paper, we present quantitative analysis isolates value...
Abstract Previous analyses of the possibility global breadbasket failures have extrapolated risks based on historical relationships between climate and yields. However, change is causing unprecedented events globally, which could exceed critical thresholds reduce yields, even if there no precedent. This means that we are likely underestimating to our food system. In case wheat, parts USA China show little relationship yields temperature, but extreme temperatures now possible physiological in...
Abstract. Probabilistic hydro-meteorological forecasts have over the last decades been used more frequently to communicate forecast uncertainty. This uncertainty is twofold, as it constitutes both an added value and a challenge for forecaster user of forecasts. Many authors demonstrated (economic) probabilistic deterministic across water sector (e.g. flood protection, hydroelectric power management navigation). However, richness information also source challenges operational uses, due...
Extreme temperatures are one of the leading causes death and disease in both developed developing countries, heat extremes projected to rise many regions. To reduce risk, heatwave plans cold weather have been effectively implemented around world. However, much world's population is not yet protected by such systems, including data-scarce but also highly vulnerable In this study, we assess at a global level where systems potential be effective reducing risk from temperature extremes,...
Empirical evidence shows that acting on early warnings can help humanitarian organizations reduce losses, damages and suffering while reducing costs. Available forecasts of extreme events provide the information required to automatically trigger preparedness measures, 'value information' approaches can, in principle, guide selection forecast thresholds make action preferable inaction. We acknowledge here that, for real-world situations, value approach accurately estimates only if key factors...
Within the humanitarian sector, there is a pressing need to scale up anticipatory action as climate change-related disasters increase. This article evaluates forecasts relating extreme weather events – rainfall, tropical cyclones, river flooding and storm surge in Myanmar Philippines assess feasibility of using such develop early warning systems responses. To make best use limited extant data, variety methods (reliability diagrams, hit rates, false alarm ratios, correlations) are employed....
Abstract Although conflict-affected populations are often exposed to and severely impacted by disasters, little is known about their perceptions practices concerning early warning action (EWEA) or how EWEA strategies can protect communities affected conflict- climate-related disasters. This particularly problematic as, due the multiple challenges posed conflict compound crises in these contexts, warnings of weather hazards do not translate actions. comprehensive literature review examined...
Abstract. In light of strong encouragement for disaster managers to use climate services flood preparation, we question whether seasonal rainfall forecasts should indeed be used as indicators the likelihood flooding. Here, investigate primary flooding at timescale across sub-Saharan Africa. Given sparsity hydrological observations, input bias-corrected reanalysis into Global Flood Awareness System identify floodiness. Results demonstrate that in some regions western, central, and eastern...