A5039147696- Climate variability and models
- Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations
- Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones Research
- Flood Risk Assessment and Management
- Cryospheric studies and observations
- Geophysics and Gravity Measurements
- Climate change impacts on agriculture
- Precipitation Measurement and Analysis
- Climate Change and Health Impacts
- Ocean Waves and Remote Sensing
- Atmospheric and Environmental Gas Dynamics
- Atmospheric aerosols and clouds
- Ocean Acidification Effects and Responses
- Disaster Management and Resilience
- Landslides and related hazards
- Hydrology and Drought Analysis
- Hydrological Forecasting Using AI
Indian Institute of Technology Delhi
2020-2025
India Meteorological Department
2021-2025
Ministry of Earth Sciences
2017-2025
Government of India
2021-2024
National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting
2017-2022
Abstract A high resolution regional reanalysis of the Indian Monsoon Data Assimilation and Analysis (IMDAA) project is made available to researchers for deeper understanding monsoon its variability. This 12 km covering satellite-era from 1979 2018 using 4D-Var data assimilation method UK Met Unified Model presently highest atmospheric carried out region. Conventional satellite observations different sources are used, including surface upper air observations, which some were not used in any...
Abstract As a direct consequence of extreme monsoon rainfall throughout the summer 2022 season Pakistan experienced worst flooding in its history. We employ probabilistic event attribution methodology as well detailed assessment dynamics to understand role climate change this event. Many available state-of-the-art models struggle simulate these characteristics. Those that pass our evaluation test generally show much smaller likelihood and intensity than trend we found observations. This...
Abstract The Indian Monsoon Data Assimilation and Analysis (IMDAA) is a regional high‐resolution atmospheric reanalysis over the subcontinent. This India first of its kind produced by National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting Met Office, UK, in collaboration with Meteorological Department under Mission project Ministry Earth Sciences, Government India. runs from 1979 to 2018, span era modern meteorological satellites. article briefly describes IMDAA system discusses performance...
Abstract In March 2022, large parts over the north Indian plains including breadbasket region, and southern Pakistan began experiencing prolonged heat, which continued into May. The event was exacerbated due to prevailing dry conditions in resulting devastating consequences for public health agriculture. Using attribution methods, we analyse role of human-induced climate change altering chances such an event. To capture extent impacts, choose March–April average daily maximum temperature...
Abstract The southern Indian state of Kerala experienced exceptionally high rainfall during August 2018, which led to devastating floods in many parts the state. Prediction and early warning severe weather events vulnerable areas is crucial for disaster management agencies order protect life property. In recent years, state‐of‐the‐art numerical prediction (NWP) models have been used operationally predict over different spatial temporal scales. present paper, predictions based on National...
Abstract Developing a better scientific understanding of anthropogenic climate change and variability, especially the prediction/projection futures with useful temporal geographical resolution quantified uncertainties, using that knowledge to inform adaptation planning action will become crucially important in coming years. Generating such policy-relevant may be particularly for developing countries as India. It is this backdrop that, paper, we analyze future heat waves India by observations...
Human activities have been implicated in the observed increase Global Mean Surface Temperature. Over regional scales where climatic changes determine societal impacts and drive adaptation related decisions, detection attribution (D&A) of climate change can be challenging due to greater contribution internal variability, uncertainty regionally important forcings, errors models, larger observational many regions world. We examine causes annual seasonal surface air temperature (TAS) over...
Abstract National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting high‐resolution regional convective‐scale Unified Model with latest tropical science settings is used to evaluate vertical structure of cloud and precipitation over two prominent monsoon regions: Western Ghats (WG) Monsoon Core Zone (MCZ). radar reflectivity generated using Cloud Feedback Intercomparison Project Observation Simulator Package along CloudSat profiling sampled an active synoptic situation based on a new method...
Abstract A method is presented for deriving probabilistic medium‐range (1‐to‐2‐week) weather pattern forecasts India. This uses an existing set of 30 objectively derived daily patterns, which provide climatological representations unique states in the large‐scale circulation over Weather forecast probabilities are based on number ensemble members assigned to each pattern. Two summer monsoon case studies illustrate best use forecasting tool within guidance, such as highlighting most likely...
Countries adjoining the North Indian Ocean (NIO) region are among world's worst affected areas by tropical cyclones (TCs). An increase in frequency and intensity of TCs affecting this basin is noticed recent years. Timely accurate prediction a TC can lead to decrease damages life property caused cyclone. In times, forecasts tracks have improved due advancements resolution, data assimilation techniques physics Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models improvements model's initial condition....
This study examines the track and intensity forecasts of two typical Bay Bengal tropical cyclones (TC) ASANI MOCHA. The analysis various Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) model [ECMWF (European Centre for Medium range Forecast), NCEP (National Centers Environmental Prediction), NCUM Range Forecast-Unified Model), IMD (India Meteorological Department), HWRF (Hurricane Research Forecasting)], MME (Multi-model Ensemble), SCIP (Statistical Cyclone Intensity Prediction) model, OFCL (Official)...
There have been major advances in the last few decades our understanding of heavy rainfall during monsoon season due to substantial progress both observation and numerical modelling monsoon. All these resulted more accurate forecast short medium range, (upto five days) with 40% improvement accuracy recent years (2018-2022) as compared previous years. However, warning skill is not sufficient minimize damage lives property. It essential extend hazard systems (hazard models) then impact risk...
Abstract Human activities in terms of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and aerosols resulting from the combustion fossil fuels have been shown to affected temperature Earth on global continental scales. The surface air (TAS) over India has also observed be increasing last 100 years. Understanding underlying causes regional climate change can help developing appropriate mitigation adaptation strategies. Differentiating signals externally forced changes noise natural internal variability...
In this paper, we summarize findings from the Tenth International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones (IWTC-10) subgroup forecasting wind hazards and impacts. We found that new approaches to TC hazard forecasts continue be developed are becoming an increasingly common product offered by operational centres. To add greater context risk information for users, many research centres also working develop impact-based incorporate hazard, vulnerability, exposure data. Efforts tropical cyclone impact...
<p><strong>Abstract:</strong></p><p>During the summer of 2015, heatwave events claimed 2422 lives in India. Following that disaster, India’s National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA), formulated a Heat Action Plan to protect citizens and minimize fatalities. Improved forecasts from India Meteorological Department (IMD) together with NDMA’s heat action plan played major role reduction...