A5076705497- Climate variability and models
- Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations
- Advanced Graph Theory Research
- Limits and Structures in Graph Theory
- Atmospheric and Environmental Gas Dynamics
- Climate Change Policy and Economics
- Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones Research
- Climate Change and Health Impacts
- Graph Labeling and Dimension Problems
- Hydrology and Drought Analysis
- Climate change impacts on agriculture
- Complexity and Algorithms in Graphs
- Flood Risk Assessment and Management
- Quantum Computing Algorithms and Architecture
- Geophysics and Gravity Measurements
- Plant Water Relations and Carbon Dynamics
- Crystallization and Solubility Studies
- Precipitation Measurement and Analysis
- Graph theory and applications
- X-ray Diffraction in Crystallography
- Geology and Paleoclimatology Research
- Water resources management and optimization
- Ecosystem dynamics and resilience
- Climate Change Communication and Perception
- demographic modeling and climate adaptation
The University of Melbourne
2016-2025
Australian Research Council
2017-2025
Collaboration for Australian Weather and Climate Research
2024-2025
ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science
2016-2025
D-Wave Systems (Canada)
2015-2025
UNSW Sydney
2012-2022
Benchmark Research (United States)
2020
Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam
2019
RFF-CMCC European Institute on Economics and the Environment
2019
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
2019
Abstract A workshop was held in Casablanca, Morocco, March 2012, to enhance knowledge of climate extremes and their changes the Arab region. This initiated intensive data compilation activities daily observational weather station from After conducting careful control processes ensure quality homogeneity data, indices for extreme temperatures precipitation were calculated. study examines temporal region with regard long‐term trends natural variability related ENSO NAO . We find consistent...
Attribution of extreme events is a challenging science and one that currently undergoing considerable evolution. In this paper are 19 analyses by 18 different research groups, often using quite methodologies, 12 occurred in 2012. addition to investigating the causes these events, multiple four high temperatures United States, record low levels Arctic sea ice, heavy rain northern Europe eastern Australia, provide an opportunity compare contrast strengths weaknesses various methodologies. The...
The last few years have seen an explosion of interest in extreme event attribution, the science estimating influence human activities or other factors on probability and characteristics observed weather climate event. This is driven by public interest, but also has practical applications decision-making after for raising awareness current future change impacts. World Weather Attribution (WWA) collaboration over 5 developed a methodology to answer these questions scientifically rigorous way...
Abstract The Paris Agreement aims to keep global warming well below 2°C above preindustrial levels with a preferred ambitious 1.5°C target. Developing countries, especially small island nations, pressed for the target be adopted, but who will suffer largest changes in climate if we miss this target? Here show that exceeding would lead poorest experiencing greatest local changes. Under these circumstances greater support adaptation prevent poverty growth required.
Determining the time of emergence climates altered from their natural state by anthropogenic influences can help inform development adaptation and mitigation strategies to climate change. Previous studies have examined averages. However, at global scale, changes in extreme events, which greatest societal impacts, has not been investigated before. Based on state-of-the-art models, we show that temperature extremes generally emerge slightly later quasi-natural than seasonal means, due greater...
Abstract Changes in climate are usually considered terms of trends or differences over time. However, for many impacts requiring adaptation, it is the amplitude change relative to local variability which more relevant. Here, we develop concept “signal‐to‐noise” observations temperature, highlighting that regions already experiencing a would be “unknown” by late 19th century standards. The emergence observed temperature changes both land and ocean clearest tropical regions, contrast largest...
Mass coral bleaching on the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) in Australia between 2016 and 2024 was driven by high sea surface temperatures (SST)
Abstract. Scenarios represent a critical tool in climate change analysis, enabling the exploration of future evolution system, impacts, and human system (including mitigation adaptation actions). This paper describes scenario framework for ScenarioMIP as part CMIP7. The design process, initiated June 2023, has involved various rounds interaction with research community user groups at large. proposal covers set scenarios exploring high levels (to explore high-end risks), medium (anchored to...
Abstract A 0.05° × gridded dataset of daily observed rainfall is compared with high‐quality station data at 119 sites across Australia for performance in capturing extreme characteristics. range statistics was calculated and analysed a selection indices representing the frequency intensity heavy events, their contribution to total rainfall. As often found interpolated data, we show that tends underestimate events these annual as well overestimating very low events. The captures interannual...
There is an international effort to attempt limit global warming 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels, however, there a lack of quantitative analysis on the benefits holding such level. In this study, coupled climate model simulations are used form large ensembles simulated years at and 2 warming. These assess projected changes in frequency magnitude European extremes these levels. For example, we find that events similar record hot summer 2003, which caused tens thousands excess deaths, would...
Abstract In northern and central Ethiopia, 2015 was a very dry year. Rainfall only from one-half to three-quarters of the usual amount, with both “belg” (February–May) “kiremt” rains (June–September) affected. The timing that did fall also erratic. Many crops failed, causing food shortages for many millions people. role climate change in probability drought like this is investigated, focusing on large-scale precipitation deficit February–September Ethiopia. Using gridded analysis combines...
Abstract Sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) have been linked with anomalously cold temperatures at the surface in middle to high latitudes of Northern Hemisphere as climatological westerly winds stratosphere tend weaken and turn easterly. However, previous studies largely relied on reanalyses model simulations infer role SSWs climate SSW relationships extremes not fully analyzed. Here, we use observed daily gridded temperature precipitation data over Europe comprehensively examine response...
Meteorological and geophysical hazards will concur interact with coronavirus disease (COVID-19) impacts in many regions on Earth. These interactions challenge the resilience of societies systems. A comparison plausible COVID-19 epidemic trajectories multi-hazard time-series curves enables delineation scenarios for selected countries (United States, China, Australia, Bangladesh) (Texas). In crises, governments other responding agents may be required to make complex, highly compromised,...
Warming of the climate system can result in very large corresponding changes occurrence extremes. Temperature extremes may occur due to a shift whole distribution, where there is an increase entire temperature probability or shape such as variability causing widening distribution. Understanding precise characteristics distributions response background warming important aspect fully understanding heat and their associated impacts on human ecosystem health. This study investigates projected...
Increasing likelihoods of extreme weather events is the most noticeable and damaging manifestation anthropogenic climate change. In aftermath an event, policy makers are often called upon to make timely sensitive decisions about rebuilding managing present future risks. Information regarding whether, where how present-day risks changing needed adequately inform these decisions. But, this information not available when it is, presented in a systematic way. Here, we demonstrate seamless...
Abstract Leading patterns of observed monthly extreme rainfall variability in Australia are examined using an empirical orthogonal teleconnection (EOT) method. Extreme is more closely related to mean during austral summer than winter. The leading EOT explain less variance Australia-wide the case for EOTs. authors illustrate that, as with rainfall, El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has strongest association warm-season variability, while cool season primary drivers atmospheric blocking and...
Abstract This study conducts a detection and attribution analysis of the observed changes in extreme precipitation during 1951–2015. Observed CMIP6 multimodel simulated annual maximum daily consecutive 5‐day are compared using an optimal fingerprinting technique for different spatial scales from global land, Northern Hemisphere extratropics, tropics, three continental regions (North America western eastern Eurasia), “dry” “wet” land areas (as defined by their average intensities). Results...
Southeast Brazil experienced profound water shortages in 2014/15. Anthropogenic climate change is not found to be a major influence on the hazard, whereas increasing population and consumption increased vulnerability.
© 2019 American Meteorological Society. For information regarding reuse of this content and general copyright information, consult the AMS Copyright Policy (www.ametsoc.org/PUBSReuseLicenses).A supplement to article is available online (10.1175/BAMS-D-18-0116.2)
Abstract Investigations into the role of anthropogenic climate change in extreme weather events are now starting to extend analysis impacts on non-climate (e.g. socio-economic) systems. However, care needs be taken when making this extension, because methodological choices regarding attribution can become crucial considering events’ impacts. The fraction attributable risk (FAR) method, useful research, has a very specific interpretation concerning class events, and there is potential...
Abstract Studies of atmospheric rivers (ARs) over Australia have, so far, only focused on northwest cloudband–type weather systems. Here we perform a comprehensive analysis AR climatology and impacts that includes not northwesterly systems, but easterly extratropical ARs also. We quantify the impact mean extreme rainfall including assessing how origin location can alter their precipitation outcomes. found strong relationship between in agriculturally significant Murray–Daring basin region....