A5042835991- Climate variability and models
- Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations
- Atmospheric and Environmental Gas Dynamics
- Flood Risk Assessment and Management
- Distributed and Parallel Computing Systems
- Hydrology and Watershed Management Studies
- Hydrology and Drought Analysis
- Cryospheric studies and observations
- Scientific Computing and Data Management
- Arctic and Antarctic ice dynamics
- Advanced Data Storage Technologies
- Climate Change and Health Impacts
- demographic modeling and climate adaptation
- Oceanographic and Atmospheric Processes
- Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones Research
- Wind and Air Flow Studies
- Forest Management and Policy
- Climate change and permafrost
- Landslides and related hazards
- Graph Theory and Algorithms
- Tree-ring climate responses
- Data Management and Algorithms
- Climate change impacts on agriculture
- Scientific Research and Discoveries
- Plant Water Relations and Carbon Dynamics
Central European Data Agency (Czechia)
2023
Centre for Environmental Data Analysis
2023
University of Oxford
2006-2018
Science and Technology Facilities Council
2018
Rutherford Appleton Laboratory
2018
National Centre for Atmospheric Science
2018
In the summer 2010 Western Russia was hit by an extraordinary heat wave, with region experiencing far warmest July since records began. Whether and to what extent this event is attributable anthropogenic climate change controversial. Dole et al. (2011) report Russian wave “mainly natural in origin” whereas Rahmstorf Coumou write that a probability of 80% “the record would not have occurred” without large‐scale warming 1980, most which has been attributed increase greenhouse gas...
Attribution of extreme events is a challenging science and one that currently undergoing considerable evolution. In this paper are 19 analyses by 18 different research groups, often using quite methodologies, 12 occurred in 2012. addition to investigating the causes these events, multiple four high temperatures United States, record low levels Arctic sea ice, heavy rain northern Europe eastern Australia, provide an opportunity compare contrast strengths weaknesses various methodologies. The...
Abstract. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has accepted the invitation from UNFCCC to provide a special report impacts of global warming 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels and related greenhouse-gas emission pathways. Many current experiments in, for example, Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP), are not specifically designed informing this report. Here, we document design half degree additional warming, projections, prognosis (HAPPI) experiment. HAPPI provides...
Demonstrating the effect that climate change is having on regional weather a subject which occupies scientists, government policy makers and media. After an extreme event occurs, question often posed, ‘Was caused by anthropogenic change?’ Recently, new branch of science (known as attribution) has sought to quantify how much risk events occurring increased or decreased due change. One method attribution uses very large ensembles models computed via volunteer distributed computing. A recent...
Abstract. Extreme weather events can have large impacts on society and, in many regions, are expected to change frequency and intensity with climate change. Owing the relatively short observational record, models useful tools as they allow for generation of a larger sample extreme events, attribute recent anthropogenic change, project changes such into future. The modelling system known weather@home, consisting global model (GCM) nested regional (RCM) driven by sea surface temperatures,...
Abstract. Hydro-meteorological extremes such as drought and heavy precipitation can have large impacts on society the economy. With potentially increasing risks associated with events due to climate change, properly assessing uncertainties is critical for adequate adaptation. However, application of risk-based approaches often requires sets extreme events, which are not commonly available. Here, we present a set hydro-meteorological time series recent past future conditions United Kingdom...
In complex spatial models, as used to predict the climate response greenhouse gas emissions, parameter variation within plausible bounds has major effects on model behavior of interest. Here, we present an unprecedentedly large ensemble >57,000 runs in which 10 parameters, initial conditions, hardware, and software run all have been varied. We relate information about large-scale (equilibrium sensitivity global mean temperature a doubling carbon dioxide). demonstrate that parameter, are...
Atmospheric modes of variability relevant for extreme temperature and precipitation events are evaluated in models currently being used event attribution. A 100 member initial condition ensemble the global circulation model HadAM3P is compared with both multi-model from Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project, Phase 5 (CMIP5) CMIP5 atmosphere-only counterparts (AMIP5). The use allows huge ensembles to be computed relatively fast, thereby providing unique insights into dynamics extremes....
The crucial question in the public debate of extreme events is increasingly whether and to what extent event has been caused by anthropogenic warming. In this study we investigate using summer precipitation England Wales as an example for probabilistic attribution very large ensembles regional climate model (RCM) simulations within weather@home.net project. This allows us analyse statistics high Wales, a region with quality observational dataset. Validating against observations shows...
Abstract The impact of anthropogenic forcing on the probability high mean summer temperatures being exceeded in Texas year 2011 was investigated using an atmospheric circulation model to simulate large ensembles world with level and 5 “counterfactual” worlds under preindustrial forcing. In Texas, drought is a strong control temperature, so increased frequency precipitation deficits and/or soil moisture that may result from could magnify regional footprint global warming. However, no...
Abstract. A new climate modelling project has been developed for regional simulation and the attribution of weather extremes over Australia New Zealand. The project, known as weather@home Australia–New Zealand, uses public volunteers' home computers to run a moderate-resolution global atmospheric model with nested Australasian region. By harnessing aggregated computing power computers, is able generate an unprecedented number simulations possible under various scenarios. This combination...
Abstract. Hydro-meteorological extremes such as drought and heavy precipitation can have large impacts on society the economy. With potentially increasing risks associated with events due to climate change, properly assessing uncertainties is critical for adequate adaptation. However, application of risk-based approaches often requires sets extreme events, which are not commonly available. Here, we present a set hydro-meteorological time series recent past future conditions United Kingdom...
Probabilistic event attribution (PEA) is an important tool for assessing the contribution of climate change to extreme weather events. Here, PEA applied explore recent heat events in California's Central Valley. Heat waves have become progressively more severe due increasing relative humidity and nighttime temperatures, which increases health risks exposed communities, especially Latino farmworkers other socioeconomically disadvantaged communities. Using a superensemble simulations with...
Abstract A number of studies have set out to obtain a range atmosphere and ocean model behavior by perturbing parameters in single climate (perturbed physics ensemble: PPE). Early used shallow layer slab or flux‐adjusted coupled ocean‐atmosphere models broad as characterized sensitivity. recent study reports relatively narrow sensitivities (2.2–3.2°C) PPE 35 without flux adjustment, raising the question whether previous ranges were an artifact use that not top‐of‐atmosphere (TOA) energy...
Abstract. climateprediction.net is a large public resource distributed scientific computing project. Members of the download and run full-scale climate model, donate their time to perturbed physics ensemble experiment forecast in 21st century submit results back The amount data generated large, consisting tens thousands individual runs each order megabytes. overall dataset is, therefore, terabytes. Access analysis further complicated by reliance on donated, distributed, federated servers....
Abstract. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has accepted the invitation from UNFCCC to provide a special report impacts of global warming 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels and related greenhouse gas emission pathways. Many current experiments in, for example, Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP), are not specifically designed informing this report. Here, we document design Half degree Additional warming, Projections, Prognosis Impacts (HAPPI) experiment. HAPPI...
A very large ensemble is used to identify subgrid-scale parameter settings for the HadCM3 model that are capable of best simulating ocean state over recent past (1980–2010). simple particle filtering technique based upon agreement basin mean sea surface temperature (SST) and upper 700-m heat content with EN3 observations applied an existing perturbed physics initial conditions perturbations. single set values was identified from wide range sets gave period studied. The set, different...
Abstract. A new climate modelling project has been developed for regional simulation and the attribution of weather extremes over Australia New Zealand. The project, known as weather@home Australia-New Zealand, uses public volunteers' home computers to run a moderate-resolution global atmospheric model with nested Australasian region. By harnessing aggregated computing power computers, is able generate an unprecedented number simulations possible under various scenarios. This combination...