A5058768871- Climate variability and models
- Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations
- Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones Research
- Geology and Paleoclimatology Research
- Atmospheric and Environmental Gas Dynamics
- Oceanographic and Atmospheric Processes
- Geophysics and Gravity Measurements
- Atmospheric aerosols and clouds
- Atmospheric chemistry and aerosols
- Tree-ring climate responses
- Cryospheric studies and observations
- Aeolian processes and effects
- Pacific and Southeast Asian Studies
- Climate change and permafrost
- Wind and Air Flow Studies
- Species Distribution and Climate Change
- Isotope Analysis in Ecology
- Atmospheric Ozone and Climate
- Climate Change and Environmental Impact
- Image Processing and 3D Reconstruction
- Archaeology and ancient environmental studies
- Coastal and Marine Dynamics
- Plant Water Relations and Carbon Dynamics
- Paleontology and Stratigraphy of Fossils
- Geological Formations and Processes Exploration
Met Office
2018-2023
University of Reading
2005-2022
University of Exeter
2022
Loughborough University
2019
University of Leicester
2019
Monash University
2011-2018
ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science
2014-2018
Australian Research Council
2017
National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research
2009-2013
UNSW Sydney
2013
Abstract The representation of the winter and summer extratropical storm tracks in both hemispheres is evaluated detail for available models phase 6 Coupled Model intercomparison Project (CMIP6). state from 1979 to 2014 compared that ERA5 using a Lagrangian objective cyclone tracking algorithm. It found main biases present previous generation (CMIP5) still persist, albeit lesser extent. equatorward bias around SH much reduced there appears be some improvement mean with higher-resolution...
Abstract The past 1500 years provide a valuable opportunity to study the response of climate system external forcings. However, integration paleoclimate proxies with modeling is critical improving understanding dynamics. In this paper, model and proxy records are therefore used role natural anthropogenic forcings in driving global climate. inverse forward approaches data–model comparison applied, sources uncertainty identified discussed. first two case studies, simulations compared...
A full understanding of the causes severe drought seen in Sahel latter part twentieth-century remains elusive some 25 yr after height event. Previous studies have suggested that this drying trend may be explained by either decadal modes natural variability or human-driven emissions (primarily aerosols), but these lacked a sufficiently large number models to attribute one cause over other. In paper, signatures both aerosol and greenhouse gas changes on rainfall are illustrated. These...
Abstract Purpose of Review This review brings together recent research on the structure, characteristics, dynamics, and impacts extratropical cyclones in future. It draws using idealized models complex climate simulations, to evaluate what is known unknown about these future changes. Recent Findings There are interacting processes that contribute uncertainties cyclone changes, e.g., changes horizontal vertical structure atmosphere increasing moisture content due rising temperatures. Summary...
Abstract There are some long-established biases in atmospheric models that originate from the representation of tropical convection. Previously, it has been difficult to separate cause and effect because errors often result a number interacting biases. Recently, researchers have gained ability run multiyear global climate model simulations with grid spacings small enough switch convective parameterization off, which permits convection develop explicitly. clear improvements initiation storms...
Abstract Regional precipitation responses to land warming are separated from other aspects of CO 2 forcing using idealized atmosphere‐only climate model experiments. Land is crucial in determining the regional direct and plant physiological effect partially mitigates response sea surface temperature (SST) warming. The causes large reductions transpiration over forest regions but also produces significant which increases moisture convergence tropical regions, opposing transpiration‐related...
Abstract Effective radiative forcing (ERF) is evaluated in the ACCESS1.0 General Circulation Model (GCM) with fixed land and sea‐surface‐temperatures (SST) as well sea‐ice. The 4xCO 2 ERF 8.0 W m −2 . In contrast, a typical experiment only SST sea‐ice gives rise to an of 7.0 This difference arises due influence warming commonly used fixed‐SST experimental design, which results in: (i) increased emission longwave radiation space from surface (−0.45 ) troposphere (−0.90 ), (ii) reduced...
Abstract The ability of climate models to represent extratropical storm tracks is vital provide useful projections. In previous work, the representation in Northern Hemisphere was found have improved from phase 5 6 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). Here we investigate remaining and persistent biases CMIP, by contrasting atmosphere-only simulations (AMIP6) with historical coupled (CMIP6). comparison AMIP6 CMIP6 reveals that sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across North Pacific...
Winter storms cause significant impacts to a range of sectors in the United Kingdom (UK) (Hanlon et al., 2021; Kendon al. 2023). The nature winter is that they are associated with multiple hazards (for example strong winds, rain, and storm surges) which will most often occur as compounding hazards: simultaneously, over large areas or one after another (Bloomfield 2023, 2024; Kew Zscheischler 2020). complexity from makes them challenging plan for by resilience specialists critical...
Abstract In atmospheric models with kilometer‐scale grids the resolution approaches scale of convection. As a consequence most energetic eddies in atmosphere are partially resolved and unresolved. The modeling challenge to represent convection explicitly as subgrid process is called convective gray zone problem. issue has previously been discussed context regional models, but evolution constrained by lateral boundary conditions. Here we explore starting from defined global configuration Met...
Storm Eunice caused severe wind impacts on the United Kingdom 18 February 2022. This article contains first of a two-part study and shows how Eunice's cyclone structure was well-forecast days in advance, but small-scale uncertainty persisted peak-wind location strength. Several indications sting-jet activity observations model data are presented, including banding at cloud-head tip visible from satellite imagery (see figure, copyright ©EUMETSAT). The detailed analysis airstream is left to...
Storm Eunice caused severe wind impacts on the United Kingdom 18 February 2022. This article contains second of a two-part study and consists detailed analysis Eunice's airstream structure, confirming presence sting-jet (SJ) activity during its lifecycle. By time crossed Wales southern England, several other airstreams, including cold conveyor belt dry intrusion, interacted in generating observed damaging winds. These results illustrate wind-damage potential multiple SJs, intense cyclones...
Abstract. General circulation models (GCMs) are valuable tools for understanding how the global ocean–atmosphere–land surface system interacts and routinely evaluated relative to observational data sets. Conversely, sets can also be used constrain GCMs in order identify systematic errors their simulated climates. One such example is prescribe sea temperatures (SSTs) that 70 % of Earth's temperature field observationally constrained (known as an Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project,...
Sting jets in European windstorms can cause damaging winds and gusts, but the resolution of global ensemble prediction systems is too coarse to represent them. Here we describe development a tool applied outputs from these that forecasters use identify favourable conditions for sting-jet occurrence several days ahead. Plots generated by this have been available Met Office since autumn 2019, demonstrate its usefulness storm Brendan January 2020. Damaging surface some storms attributed...
The initiation of northern Australian monsoon rainfall bursts is accompanied by an increase in cyclonic circulation the region. This study shows that change at start composite burst predominantly influenced midlatitude frontlike features. By exploiting relationship between tendency and convergence absolute vorticity flux, changes accompanying investigated. Moisture flux found to be proportional Using a analysis it shown fluxes through southern boundary are far most important influence on...
Abstract. Diagnosing the climate of New Zealand from low-resolution General Circulation Models (GCMs) is notoriously difficult due to interaction complex topography and Southern Hemisphere (SH) mid-latitude westerly winds. Therefore, methods downscaling synoptic scale model data for are useful help understand past climate. also has a wealth palaeoclimate-proxy which downscaled output can be compared, provide qualitative method assessing capability GCMs represent, in this case, 6000 yr ago...
Abstract In the Different Models, Same Initial Conditions (DIMOSIC) project, forecasts from different global medium-range forecast models have been created based on same initial conditions. The dataset consists of 10-day deterministic seven and includes 122 dates spanning one calendar year. All are initialized ECMWF operational analyses to minimize differences due initialization. run at or near their respective resolutions explore similarities between models. main aims this study 1) evaluate...
Tropical precipitation is caused by many processes that occur over a wide range of temporal and spatial scales. Such vary from local, diurnal convection driven destabilisation the boundary layer to planetary‐scale systems result in rainfall days. It therefore important assess whether general circulation models (GCMs) can represent these given such are routinely used project future low latitudes. In this study, we evaluate characteristics ten GCMs Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5...
Abstract. General circulation models (GCMs) are routinely run under Atmospheric Modelling Intercomparison Project (AMIP) conditions with prescribed sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and ice concentrations (SICs) from observations. These AMIP simulations often used to evaluate the role of land and/or atmosphere in causing development systematic errors such GCMs. Extensions original experiment have also been developed response global climate increased SSTs (prescribed) carbon dioxide (CO2) as...
Palaeoclimate-proxy data provide an invaluable source of evidence for past climatic conditions, which can be compared with from climate model simulations. This study illustrates how high-resolution regional simulations used to estimate the difference in New Zealand between 6000 years before present (yr BP) and pre-industrial era (c. ad 1750). Four pairs (pre-industrial yr atmosphere-only global were run prescribed sea surface temperatures (SST). The SSTs are derived four different fully...
Abstract A large ensemble of general circulation model (GCM) integrations coupled to a fully interactive sulfur cycle scheme were run on the climateprediction.net platform investigate uncertainty in climate response sulfate aerosol and carbon dioxide (CO2) forcing. The burden within (and atmosphere) depends balance between formation processes deposition (wet dry). wet removal for are much faster than dry so any changes atmospheric circulation, cloud cover, precipitation will feed back...