A5031237041- Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations
- Climate variability and models
- Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones Research
- Arctic and Antarctic ice dynamics
- Atmospheric chemistry and aerosols
- Wind and Air Flow Studies
- Atmospheric aerosols and clouds
- Fluid Dynamics and Turbulent Flows
- Environmental Changes in China
- Aerodynamics and Acoustics in Jet Flows
- Geophysics and Gravity Measurements
- Climate change and permafrost
- Ionosphere and magnetosphere dynamics
- Remote Sensing and Land Use
- Precipitation Measurement and Analysis
- Environmental and Agricultural Sciences
- Air Quality Monitoring and Forecasting
- Plasma and Flow Control in Aerodynamics
- Hydrological Forecasting Using AI
- Hydrology and Sediment Transport Processes
- Inertial Sensor and Navigation
- GNSS positioning and interference
- Earthquake Detection and Analysis
- Fluid Dynamics and Vibration Analysis
- Ocean Waves and Remote Sensing
University of Reading
2015-2024
National Centre for Atmospheric Science
2019-2024
University of Milan
2015
Abstract There has been huge recent interest in the potential of making operational weather forecasts using machine learning techniques. As they become a part forecasting toolbox, there is pressing need to understand how well current models can simulate high-impact events. We compare short medium-range Storm Ciarán, European windstorm that caused sixteen deaths and extensive damage Northern Europe, made by numerical prediction models. The four considered (FourCastNet, Pangu-Weather,...
During the first HyMeX Special Observation Period (SOP1) field campaign, target site of north‐eastern Italy (NEI) experienced a large amount precipitation, locally exceeding climatological values and distributed among several heavy‐rainfall episodes. In particular, two events that occurred during last period campaign drew our attention. These had common large‐scale patterns similar mesoscale setting, characterised by southerly low‐level flow interacting with Alpine orography, but...
Abstract The INCOMPASS field campaign combines airborne and ground measurements of the 2016 Indian monsoon, towards ultimate goal better predicting monsoon rainfall. supplies majority water in South Asia, but forecasting from days to season ahead is limited by large, rapidly developing errors model parametrizations. lack detailed observations prevents thorough understanding circulation its interaction with land surface: a process governed boundary‐layer convective‐cloud dynamics. used UK...
The Indian summer monsoon (ISM) is of great importance to over a billion people since it supplies 75% the country’s annual precipitation. Significant intraseasonal variability in rainfall affects people, with breaks responsible for causing water shortage. It known that dry intrusions play role breaks; however, not well understood compared during progressions onset and withdrawal ISM. In this study, we use observations ERA5 reanalysis understand 1940–2023. We develop an...
Abstract Large parts of East and South Asia were affected by heavy precipitation flooding during early summer 2020. This study provides both a statistical dynamical characterization rains floods affecting the Yangtze River Basin (YRB). By aggregating daily monthly over river basins across Asia, it is shown that YRB one areas was particularly affected. June July 2020 rainfall higher than in previous 20 years, experienced anomalously high most its sub-basins. discharge also attained levels not...
Storm Eunice caused severe wind impacts on the United Kingdom 18 February 2022. This article contains first of a two-part study and shows how Eunice's cyclone structure was well-forecast days in advance, but small-scale uncertainty persisted peak-wind location strength. Several indications sting-jet activity observations model data are presented, including banding at cloud-head tip visible from satellite imagery (see figure, copyright ©EUMETSAT). The detailed analysis airstream is left to...
Storm Eunice caused severe wind impacts on the United Kingdom 18 February 2022. This article contains second of a two-part study and consists detailed analysis Eunice's airstream structure, confirming presence sting-jet (SJ) activity during its lifecycle. By time crossed Wales southern England, several other airstreams, including cold conveyor belt dry intrusion, interacted in generating observed damaging winds. These results illustrate wind-damage potential multiple SJs, intense cyclones...
Sting jets (SJs) occur as an additional region of low‐level strong winds in some Shapiro–Keyser‐type extratropical cyclones. While SJs are widely accepted being distinct from the warm and cold conveyor belts, mechanisms responsible for their occurrence still not fully understood. Here we determine relative importance release mesoscale instabilities synoptic‐scale cyclone dynamics, so addressing area current debate. Numerical weather prediction simulations a SJ‐containing windstorm analysed...
Abstract The Indian summer monsoon is a vital source of water and cause severe impacts for more than billion people in the subcontinent. INCOMPASS project investigates mechanisms driving its onset progression through an observational field campaign supplemented by high‐resolution numerical simulations 2016 season using UK Met Office models. A 4.4 km resolution convection‐permitting limited‐area model simulation (driven at boundaries daily‐initialised global model) used this study, verified...
Abstract Satellite imagery of Storm Ciarán as it approached the UK early on 1 November 2023 showed characteristic banding that fuelled media reports could contain a sting jet, with enhanced likelihood damaging surface winds and gusts. Here operational numerical weather prediction model output is used trajectory analysis to reveal existence at least two wind speed maxima attributed jets. The small‐scale jets are located beneath, likely affected by, far broader overrunning strong regions...
Abstract. Arctic cyclones are the most energetic weather systems in Arctic, producing strong winds and precipitation that present major hazards. In summer, when sea ice cover is reduced more mobile, can have large impacts on ocean waves ice. While development of mid-latitude known to be dependent boundary layer (BL) turbulent fluxes, dynamics summer-time their dependence surface exchange processes not been investigated. The purpose this study characterise BL acting understand influence...
Abstract. Sting jets have been identified in the most damaging extratropical cyclones impacting northwest Europe. Unlike cold conveyor belt and other long-lived cyclone wind jets, sting can lead to regions of exceptionally strong near-surface winds, gusts, over just a few hours with much smaller “footprints”. They descend into frontal-fracture region found warm-seclusion cyclones. Previous research has focused almost exclusively on North Atlantic-European cyclones, but there are no known...
Abstract The THINICE field campaign, based from Svalbard in August 2022, provided unique observations of summertime Arctic cyclones, their coupling with cloud cover, and interactions tropopause polar vortices sea ice conditions. was motivated by the need to advance our understanding these processes improve coupled models used forecast weather ice, as well long-term projections climate change Arctic. Two research aircraft were deployed complementary instrumentation. Safire ATR42 aircraft,...
Abstract. Idealised simulations of Shapiro–Keyser cyclones developing a sting jet (SJ) are presented. Thanks to an improved and accurate implementation thermal wind balance in the initial state, it was possible use more realistic environments than previous idealised studies. As consequence, this study provides further insight into SJ evolution dynamics explores robustness different environmental conditions, assessed via wide range sensitivity experiments. The control simulation contains...
Abstract. The East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) is a complex phenomenon, influenced by both tropical and mid-latitude dynamics the presence of Tibetan Plateau. EASM front (EASMF) separates extratropical air masses as marches northwards. Although different factors behind progression are illustrated in number studies, their interactions, particular between masses, still need to be clarified. In this study we apply Eulerian Lagrangian methods ERA5 reanalysis dataset provide comprehensive...
Abstract. Medicane Ianos in September 2020 was one of the strongest medicanes observed last 25 years. It was, like other medicanes, a very intense cyclone evolving from baroclinic mid-latitude low into tropical-like cyclone. The dynamical elements necessary to improve predictability are explored with use simulations Met Office Unified Model (MetUM) at 2.2 km grid spacing for five different initialisation times, four two days before Ianos's landfall. Simulations also performed Sea Surface...
Abstract Accurately predicting the Indian monsoon is limited by inadequate understanding of underlying processes, which feed into systematic model biases. Here we aim to understand dynamic and thermodynamic features associated with progression monsoon, using 2016 as a representative year, help convection‐permitting simulations Met Office Unified Model. Simulations are carried out in 4 km resolution limited‐area model, nested within coarser global model. Two major processes thought influence...
Abstract We perform a climatological analysis of summer‐time Arctic cyclone structure in reanalysis data using phase space approach. A classification scheme for cyclones is proposed, dependent on whether vorticity during development low‐level‐dominant (LLD) or upper‐level‐dominant (ULD). During growth, LLD (65.5%) exhibit warm‐core asymmetric structures, whereas ULD (34.5%) have cold‐core structures. typically greater thermal asymmetry growth. However, transition to persistent axisymmetric...
The monsoon onset typically starts in southern India by 1 June, taking around 6 weeks to cover the country.  During monsoon, intraseasonal variations give rise active and break periods rains.  Being able better predict onset, its progression, events would be of great interest society.  timing is already known influenced tropical variability, but new research has shown that mid-latitudes exert a powerful control, full extent which not properly quantified or...
Abstract. The East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) is a complex phenomenon, influenced by both tropical and mid-latitude dynamics the presence of Tibetan Plateau. EASM front neatly separates extratropical air masses as marches northwards. Although different factors behind progression are illustrated in number studies, their interactions, particular between masses, still need to be clarified. In this study we apply Eulerian Lagrangian methods ERA5 reanalysis dataset provide comprehensive seasonal...
The Indian summer monsoon (ISM) supplies over 75% of the country’s annual precipitation, profoundly impacting lives a billion people. Significant variability in timing its onset and withdrawal has direct impact on agricultural sector other users water resources. Previous studies have shown that wedge mid-tropospheric dry air emanating from midlatitudes is present India during early summer, which much shallower vertical toward southeast India. Following strengthening low-level winds...
Storm Ciarán was an impactful weather system that affected western Europe in the first days of November 2023. The main threat from were extreme winds, particularly hit areas around English Channel: highest wind gust recorded 207 km/h at Pointe du Raz, Bretagne (France), just as storm rapidly deepening. In this work, we discuss some dynamical characteristics related to occurrence those winds: its origin a diabatic Rossby wave, and evolution warm-seclusion cyclone with development...
Abstract The Indian summer monsoon supplies over 75% of the country's annual precipitation, profoundly impacting a billion people. Variability in timing its onset and withdrawal has direct impact on agricultural sector other users water resources. Previous studies have shown that wedge mid‐tropospheric dry air emanating from midlatitudes is present India during pre‐monsoon, which gradually retreats toward northwest as progresses. observed to progress southeast direction September–October,...