A5079843703- Climate variability and models
- Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations
- Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones Research
- Oceanographic and Atmospheric Processes
- Climate change impacts on agriculture
- Hydrology and Drought Analysis
- Atmospheric and Environmental Gas Dynamics
- Atmospheric Ozone and Climate
- Flood Risk Assessment and Management
- Arctic and Antarctic ice dynamics
- Cryospheric studies and observations
- Climate Change and Health Impacts
- Hydrology and Watershed Management Studies
- Geophysics and Gravity Measurements
- Reservoir Engineering and Simulation Methods
- Marine and coastal ecosystems
- Ocean Waves and Remote Sensing
- Ocean Acidification Effects and Responses
- Precipitation Measurement and Analysis
- Climate change and permafrost
- Nuclear Physics and Applications
- Agricultural pest management studies
- Atmospheric chemistry and aerosols
- Arctic and Russian Policy Studies
- Sustainable Agricultural Systems Analysis
The University of Tokyo
2006-2025
Sphere Institute
2011-2025
Meteorological Research Institute
2015-2024
Japan Meteorological Agency
2015-2024
Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology
2023
Tokyo Institute of Technology
2012-2014
University of Toyama
1998
Abstract An unprecedentedly large ensemble of climate simulations with a 60-km atmospheric general circulation model and dynamical downscaling 20-km regional has been performed to obtain probabilistic future projections low-frequency local-scale events. The the latter half twentieth century, 4 K warmer than preindustrial climate, century without historical trends associated anthropogenic effect are each simulated for more 5,000 years. From simulations, changes in extreme events available...
Attribution of extreme events is a challenging science and one that currently undergoing considerable evolution. In this paper are 19 analyses by 18 different research groups, often using quite methodologies, 12 occurred in 2012. addition to investigating the causes these events, multiple four high temperatures United States, record low levels Arctic sea ice, heavy rain northern Europe eastern Australia, provide an opportunity compare contrast strengths weaknesses various methodologies. The...
Abstract As climate change accelerates, societies and climate-sensitive socioeconomic sectors cannot continue to rely on the past as a guide possible future hazards. Operational decadal predictions offer potential inform current adaptation increase resilience by filling important gap between seasonal forecasts projections. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has recognized this in 2017 established WMO Lead Centre for Annual Decadal Climate Predictions (shortened “Lead Centre” below),...
Abstract Human-induced climate change has increased the frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation 1 . Due to complexity runoff generation streamflow process, historical impact human-induced on river flooding remains uncertain. Here, we address question whether anthropogenic altered probability extreme flood events for period 1951–2010 based simulated discharge derived from large ensemble experiments with without change. The results indicate that probabilities 20 52 analyzed events....
A new high-resolution atmosphere-ocean coupled general circulation model named MIROC4h has been developed, and its performance in a 120-year control experiment (including 50-year spin-up) under the present conditions (the year 1950) is examined. The results of by are compared with simulations preindustrial carried out for Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4) using previous high- medium-resolution versions model, called MIROC3h MIROC3m, respectively....
Using an international, multi‐model suite of historical forecasts from the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) Climate‐system Historical Forecast Project (CHFP), we compare seasonal prediction skill in boreal wintertime between models that resolve stratosphere and its dynamics (‘high‐top’) do not (‘low‐top’). We evaluate hindcasts are initialized November, examine model biases how they relate to (December–March) forecast skill. unable detect more high‐top ensemble‐mean than low‐top...
The high temperature event in July 2018 caused record-breaking human damage throughout Japan. Large-ensemble historical simulations with a high-resolution atmospheric general circulation model showed that the occurrence rate of this under condition external forcings was approximately 20%. This probability result high-pressure systems both upper and lower troposphere 2018. attribution approach based on large-ensemble without human-induced climate change indicated following: (1) would never...
The accumulated evidence indicates that agricultural production is being affected by climate change. However, most of the available at a global scale based on statistical regressions. Corroboration using independent methods, specifically process‐based modelling, important for improving our confidence in evidence. Here, we estimate impacts change average yields maize, rice, wheat and soybeans 1981–2010, relative to preindustrial climate. We use results factual non‐warming counterfactual...
Abstract The high sensitivity of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) to cumulus convection is examined by means a series climate simulations using an updated version Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate (MIROC), called MIROC5. Given that preindustrial control run MIROC5 shows realistic ENSO, integration repeated with four different values parameter, λ, which affects efficiency entrainment rate in cumuli. ENSO amplitude found be proportional λ−1 and vary from 0.6 1.6 K. A...
Decadal climate predictability is examined in hindcast experiments by a multi-model ensemble using three versions of the coupled atmosphere-ocean model MIROC. In these experiments, initial conditions are obtained from an anomaly assimilation procedure observed oceanic temperature and salinity with prescribed natural anthropogenic forcings on basis historical data future emission scenarios Intergovernmental Panel Climate Change. Results our show that surface air (SAT) anomalies decadal...
Abstract The present paper presents results of seasonal‐to‐decadal climate predictions based on a coupled model called the Model for Interdisciplinary Research Climate version 6 (MIROC6) contributing to Coupled Intercomparison Project Phase (CMIP6). MIROC6 is initialized every year 1960–2018 by assimilating observed ocean temperature and salinity anomalies full fields sea ice concentration prescribing atmospheric initial states from reanalysis data. impacts updating system prediction skill...
© 2020 American Meteorological Society. For information regarding reuse of this content and general copyright information, consult the AMS Copyright Policy (www.ametsoc.org/PUBSReuseLicenses).CORRESPONDING AUTHOR: Hiroaki Kawase, hkawase@mri-jma.go.jpA supplement to article is available online (10.1175/BAMS-D-19-0173.2)
Abstract The ongoing increases in anthropogenic radiative forcing have changed the global water cycle and are expected to lead more intense precipitation extremes associated floods. However, given limitations of observations model simulations, evidence impact climate change on past extreme river discharge is scarce. Here, a large ensemble numerical simulation revealed that 64% (14 22 events) floods analyzed during 2010-2013 were affected by change. Four flood events Asia, Europe, South...
Abstract. Single model initial-condition large ensembles (LEs) are a useful approach to understand roles of forced responses and internal variability in historical future climate change. Here, we produce one the largest thus far using MIROC6 coupled atmosphere-ocean global (MIROC6-LE). The total experimental period MIROC6-LE is longer than 76000 years. consists long preindustrial control run, 50-member simulations, 8 single forcing experiments with 10 or 50 members, 5 scenario members 3...
Abstract. Single model initial-condition large ensembles (LEs) are a useful approach to understand the roles of forced responses and internal variability in historical future climate change. Here, we produce one largest thus far using MIROC6 coupled atmosphere–ocean global (MIROC6-LE). The total experimental period MIROC6-LE is longer than 76 000 years. consists long preindustrial control run, 50-member simulations, 8 single forcing experiments with 10 or 50 members, 5 scenario members 3...
Abstract We produced 100‐member event attribution ensembles during 2009–2012 under all forcing conditions and in two different counterfactual worlds without anthropogenic (mainly greenhouse gases aerosols) aerosol emission changes using the MIROC5 atmospheric general circulation model. It seemed that both human influences sea surface temperature ( SST ) natural variability increased probabilities of 2010 severe drought South Amazon region, aerosols emissions had little effect on drought....
We quantify seasonal prediction skill of tropical winter rainfall in 14 climate forecast systems. High levels exist for year‐to‐year variability all ocean basins. The East Pacific is the most skilful region, with very high correlation scores, and West also highly skilful. Predictions Atlantic Indian Ocean show lower but statistically significant scores. compare (measured against observed variability) model predictability (using single forecasts as surrogate observations). Model matches some...
Abstract Large ensemble pairs of high‐resolution global and regional climate simulations, which are composed 100 members 60 years each, make it possible to attribute changes in local‐scale heavy precipitation historical warming. Mountain ranges separate local climates can modulate the impact warming on precipitation. In summer, Japan's Kyushu region, with mountain approximately 200‐km long from south north, receives large amounts Over western Kyushu, monthly maximum daily ( maxPr ) July...
© 2017 American Meteorological Society. For information regarding reuse of this content and general copyright information, consult the AMS Copyright Policy (www.ametsoc.org/PUBSReuseLicenses).* RetiredCORRESPONDING AUTHOR: Adrian Tompkins, tompkins@ictp.it
Abstract Risk-based event attribution (EA) science involves probabilistically estimating alterations of the likelihoods particular weather events, such as heat waves and heavy rainfall, owing to global warming, has been considered an effective approach with regard climate change adaptation. However, risk-based EA for rain events remains challenging because, unlike extreme temperature which often have a scale thousands kilometres, rainfall occurrences depend on mesoscale systems regional...
Abstract Portions of East Asia often experienced extremely heavy rainfall events over the last decade. Intense atmospheric rivers (ARs), eddy transports moisture middle latitudes, contributed significantly to these events. Although previous studies pointed out that landfalling ARs will become more frequent under global warming, extent which produce extreme in a warmer climate remains unclear. Here we evaluate changes frequency and intensity AR‐related warming using set high‐resolution...
A severe heat wave occurred in the southwestern United States (US) during June and July 2013. To investigate effects of natural variability anthropogenic climate change on this event, we generated large ensemble simulations possible weather using MIROC5A model forced by "historical external forcing agents, sea surface temperature (SST) observations ice (SIC) observations" both with without human influence. It was suggested that warming an atmospheric circulation regime related to SST SIC...
© 2018 American Meteorological Society. For information regarding reuse of this content and general copyright information, consult the AMS Copyright Policy (www.ametsoc.org/PUBSReuseLicenses).A supplement to article is available online (10.1175/BAMS-D-17-0109.2)