A5083446207- Climate variability and models
- Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations
- Atmospheric and Environmental Gas Dynamics
- Oceanographic and Atmospheric Processes
- Arctic and Antarctic ice dynamics
- Climate change and permafrost
- Cryospheric studies and observations
- Solar and Space Plasma Dynamics
- Stellar, planetary, and galactic studies
- Astro and Planetary Science
- Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones Research
- Geology and Paleoclimatology Research
- Marine and coastal ecosystems
- Soil Moisture and Remote Sensing
- Atmospheric Ozone and Climate
- Geophysics and Gravity Measurements
- Plant Water Relations and Carbon Dynamics
- Hydrology and Watershed Management Studies
- Astrophysics and Star Formation Studies
- Astronomy and Astrophysical Research
- Geomagnetism and Paleomagnetism Studies
- Atmospheric chemistry and aerosols
- Reservoir Engineering and Simulation Methods
- Solar Radiation and Photovoltaics
- Advanced Thermodynamic Systems and Engines
Environment and Climate Change Canada
2015-2024
Hydro Tasmania
2021
University of Victoria
2010-2021
National Centre for Atmospheric Science
2021
University of Reading
2021
University of Strathclyde
2021
Federal University of Agriculture
2021
IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Center
2021
BT Group (United Kingdom)
2021
Nigerian Meteorological Agency
2021
The recent U.S. National Academies report, Assessment of Intraseasonal to Interannual Climate Prediction and Predictability, was unequivocal in recommending the need for development a North American Multimodel Ensemble (NMME) operational predictive capability. Indeed, this effort is required meet specific tailored regional prediction decision support needs large community climate information users. multimodel ensemble approach has proven extremely effective at quantifying uncertainty due...
[1] The response of the second-generation Canadian earth system model (CanESM2) to historical (1850–2005) and future (2006–2100) natural anthropogenic forcing is assessed using newly-developed representative concentration pathways (RCPs) greenhouse gases (GHGs) aerosols. Allowable emissions required achieve atmospheric CO2 pathways, are reported for RCP 2.6, 4.5 8.5 scenarios. For 1850–2005 period, cumulative land plus ocean carbon uptake and, consequently, diagnosed compare well with...
The second phase of the Global Land‐Atmosphere Coupling Experiment (GLACE‐2) is aimed at quantifying, with a suite long‐range forecast systems, degree to which realistic land surface initialization contributes skill subseasonal precipitation and air temperature forecasts. Results, focus here on North America, show significant contributions prediction out two months across large portions continent. For forecasts, are much weaker but still 45 days in some locations. Skill levels increase...
Abstract The second phase of the Global Land–Atmosphere Coupling Experiment (GLACE-2) is a multi-institutional numerical modeling experiment focused on quantifying, for boreal summer, subseasonal (out to two months) forecast skill precipitation and air temperature that can be derived from realistic initialization land surface states, notably soil moisture. An overview model behavior at global scale described here, along with determination characterization multimodel “consensus” skill. models...
Decadal predictions have a high profile in the climate science community and beyond, yet very little is known about their skill. Nor there any agreed protocol for estimating This paper proposes sound coordinated framework verification of decadal hindcast experiments. The illustrated hindcasts tailored to meet requirements specifications CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5). chosen metrics address key questions information content initialized hindcasts. These are: (1) Do...
Abstract The Canadian Seasonal to Interannual Prediction System (CanSIPS) became operational at Environment Canada's Meteorological Centre (CMC) in December 2011, replacing CMC's previous two-tier system. CanSIPS is a two-model forecasting system that combines ensemble forecasts from the for Climate Modeling and Analysis (CCCma) Coupled Model, versions 3 4 (CanCM3 CanCM4, respectively). Mean climate as well trends variability these models are evaluated freely running historical simulations....
Abstract Weather and climate variations on subseasonal to decadal time scales can have enormous social, economic, environmental impacts, making skillful predictions these a valuable tool for decision-makers. As such, there is growing interest in the scientific, operational, applications communities developing forecasts improve our foreknowledge of extreme events. On seasonal (S2S) scales, include high-impact meteorological events such as tropical cyclones, extratropical storms, floods,...
Abstract There is a growing need for skilful predictions of climate up to decade ahead. Decadal show high skill surface temperature, but confidence in forecasts precipitation and atmospheric circulation much lower. Recent advances seasonal annual prediction that the signal-to-noise ratio can be too small models, requiring very large ensemble extract predictable signal. Here, we reassess decadal using larger than previously available, reveal significant over land circulation, addition...
Abstract As climate change accelerates, societies and climate-sensitive socioeconomic sectors cannot continue to rely on the past as a guide possible future hazards. Operational decadal predictions offer potential inform current adaptation increase resilience by filling important gap between seasonal forecasts projections. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has recognized this in 2017 established WMO Lead Centre for Annual Decadal Climate Predictions (shortened “Lead Centre” below),...
Abstract The simulation of atmospheric–land–ocean CO2 exchange for the 1850–2000 period offers possibility testing and calibrating carbon budget in earth system models by comparing simulated changes atmospheric concentration land ocean uptake with observation-based information. In particular, some uncertainties associated treatment use change (LUC) role down regulation affecting strength fertilization terrestrial photosynthesis are assessed using Canadian Centre Climate Modelling Analysis...
A method for post‐processing decadal predictions from global climate models that accounts model deficiencies in representing trends is proposed and applied to of annual mean temperature the Canadian Centre Climate Modelling Analysis model. The method, which provides a time‐dependent trend adjustment, reduces residual drifts remain after applying standard time‐independent bias correction when modelled observed long‐term differ. Initialized uninitialized simulations share common specified...
Abstract We assess the seasonal forecast skill of pan‐Arctic sea ice area in a dynamical system that includes interactive atmosphere, ocean, and components. Forecast is quantified by correlation score computed from 12 month ensemble forecasts initialized each between January 1979 to December 2009. find substantial for all lead times predicted seasons except spring but mainly due strong downward trend observations about 4 months longer. Skill higher when evaluated against an observation‐based...
Using an international, multi‐model suite of historical forecasts from the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) Climate‐system Historical Forecast Project (CHFP), we compare seasonal prediction skill in boreal wintertime between models that resolve stratosphere and its dynamics (‘high‐top’) do not (‘low‐top’). We evaluate hindcasts are initialized November, examine model biases how they relate to (December–March) forecast skill. unable detect more high‐top ensemble‐mean than low‐top...
Abstract A promising means for increasing skill of seasonal predictions Arctic sea ice is improving thickness (SIT) initial conditions; however, sparse SIT observations limit this potential. Using the Canadian Climate Model, version 3 (CanCM3), three statistical models designed to estimate fields initialization in a real-time forecasting system are applied initialize hindcasts over 1981–2012. Hindcast assessed relative two benchmark methods (SIT-IMs): climatological currently used...
Abstract The subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) predictive time scale, encompassing lead times ranging from 2 weeks to a season, is at the frontier of forecasting science. Forecasts on this scale provide opportunities for enhanced application-focused capabilities complement existing weather and climate services products. There is, however, “knowledge–value” gap, where lack evidence awareness potential socioeconomic benefits S2S forecasts limits their wider uptake. To address here we present first...
Abstract The second version of the Canadian Seasonal to Interannual Prediction System (CanSIPSv2) was implemented operationally at Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) in July 2019. Like its predecessors, CanSIPSv2 applies a multimodel ensemble approach with two coupled atmosphere–ocean models, CanCM4i GEM-NEMO. While is climate model, which upgraded from CanCM4 previous CanSIPSv1 improved sea ice initialization, GEM-NEMO newly developed numerical weather prediction (NWP)-based...
Abstract Many weather forecast and climate models simulate warm surface air temperature (T 2m ) biases over midlatitude continents during the summertime, especially Great Plains. We present here one of a series papers from multimodel intercomparison project (CAUSES: Cloud Above United States Errors at Surface), which aims to evaluate role cloud, radiation, precipitation in contributing T bias using short‐term hindcast approach spring summer 2011. Observations are mainly Atmospheric Radiation...
Abstract An EOF analysis is used to intercompare the response of ENSO-like variability CO2 doubling in results from 15 coupled climate models assembled for Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report. Under preindustrial conditions, 12 exhibit ENSO amplitudes comparable or exceeding that observed second half twentieth century. doubling, three statistically significant (p < 0.1) increases amplitude, and five decreases. The overall amplitude changes are not...
Abstract The nature of the increasing frequency extreme rainfall events (ERE) in central India is investigated by relating their occurrence to synoptic activity. Using a long record paths and intensities monsoon disturbances, activity index (SAI) defined whose interannual variation correlates strongly with that number ERE, demonstrating strong connection between these phenomena. SAI furthermore shows rising trend statistically indistinguishable from indicating ERE likely attributable This...
The preindustrial carbon cycle is described for the Canadian Centre Climate Modelling and Analysis Earth system model (CanESM1). interhemispheric gradient of surface atmospheric CO 2 concentration (xCO ) reversed from present day, with higher concentrations in Southern Hemisphere, southward transport by ocean, estimated at 0.38 Pg C yr −1 . seasonal cycles xCO exchange are dominated Northern Hemisphere terrestrial processes; ocean contribution to flux phase larger tropics out extratropics....