A5044376022- Climate variability and models
- Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations
- Precipitation Measurement and Analysis
- Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones Research
- Oceanographic and Atmospheric Processes
- Computational Physics and Python Applications
- Energy Load and Power Forecasting
- Climate change impacts on agriculture
- Ocean Waves and Remote Sensing
- Urban Green Space and Health
- Seismic Waves and Analysis
- Geomagnetism and Paleomagnetism Studies
- Flood Risk Assessment and Management
- Hydrological Forecasting Using AI
- Atmospheric Ozone and Climate
- Urban Heat Island Mitigation
- Geophysics and Gravity Measurements
- Land Use and Ecosystem Services
National Institute for Space Research
2014-2025
National Centre for Atmospheric Science
2020-2024
University of Reading
2019-2024
African Center of Meteorological Application for Development
2021
Agence Nationale de l'Aviation Civile et de la Météorologie
2021
European Organisation for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites
2021
Abstract Weather and climate variations on subseasonal to decadal time scales can have enormous social, economic, environmental impacts, making skillful predictions these a valuable tool for decision-makers. As such, there is growing interest in the scientific, operational, applications communities developing forecasts improve our foreknowledge of extreme events. On seasonal (S2S) scales, include high-impact meteorological events such as tropical cyclones, extratropical storms, floods,...
Abstract This paper evaluates subseasonal precipitation forecasts for Africa using hindcasts from three models (ECMWF, UKMO, and NCEP) participating in the Subseasonal to Seasonal (S2S) prediction project. A variety of verification metrics are employed assess weekly forecast quality at lead times one four weeks ahead (weeks 1–4) during different seasons. Overall, evaluation indicates more skillful predictions ECMWF over other East regions. Deterministic show substantial skill reduction 3–4...
Abstract. In Senegal, the West African monsoon (WAM) season is characterized by pronounced subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) rainfall fluctuations in response complex interactions between large-scale atmospheric and oceanic variability patterns mesoscale convective systems. Indeed, general circulation models (GCMs) used development of S2S forecasting systems often struggle represent mechanisms yielding WAM predictability. This study explores potential machine learning (ML) approaches improve...
Forecasts on sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescales have huge potential aid preparedness and disaster risk reduction planning decisions in a variety of sectors. However, realising this depends the provision reliable information that can be appropriately applied decision-making context users. This study describes African SWIFT (Science for Weather Information Forecasting Techniques) forecasting testbed which brings together researchers, forecast producers users from range UK institutions....
A significant proportion of the population in Sub-Saharan Africa are vulnerable to extreme climatic conditions, hence there is a high demand for climate information. In response this need, Global Challenges Research Fund African Science Weather Information and Forecasting Techniques has been undertaking two-year testbed co-produce tailored forecasts different sectors using sub-seasonal seasonal forecast datasets from Real Time Pilot Initiative project. Sub-seasonal essential early warning...
Abstract Africa is poised for a revolution in the quality and relevance of weather predictions, with potential great benefits terms human economic security. This will be driven by recent international progress nowcasting, numerical prediction, theoretical tropical dynamics, forecast communication, but depend on suitable scientific investment being made. The commercial sector has recognized this opportunity new products are made available to African stakeholders. At time, it vital that robust...
Abstract In recent years, Eastern Africa has been severely impacted by extreme climate events such as droughts and flooding. a region where people's livelihoods are heavily dependent on conditions, hydrometeorological can exacerbate existing vulnerabilities. For example, suppressed rainfall during the March to May 2019 rainy season led substantial food insecurity. order enhance preparedness against forecasted events, it is critical assess predictions their known drivers in forecast models....
El Niño is generally associated with negative rainfall anomalies (below-average rainfall) in northern Northeast Brazil (NNEB). In 2019, however, the opposite pattern was observed during an episode. Here, we explore mechanisms that overwhelmed typical Niño-related conditions and resulted positive (above-average NNEB. We focus on austral autumn when most prone to region. The analysis of several datasets, including weather station data, satellite reanalysis modelled data derived from a dry...
© 2023 The Author(s). Published by the American Meteorological Society. This is an Author Accepted Manuscript distributed under terms of Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0) License . *Corresponding author e-mail: Steven Woolnough, s.j.woolnough@reading.ac.uk
T remendous recent progress in climate prediction on subseasonal to decadal time scales has been enabled by better observations, data assimilation, and models originating from the weather simulation communities together with ever-increasing computational power.World Climate Research Program (WCRP) efforts led initially predictions one two seasons ahead becoming part of WMO operational infrastructure.More recently, a joint World Weather (WWRP) WCRP Subseasonal Seasonal Prediction Project...
The spatial and temporal variability patterns of the urban heat island (UHI) in metropolitan area Sao Paulo (MASP) were investigated using hourly temperature observations for a 10-year period from January 2002 to December 2011. empirical orthogonal function (EOF) cluster analysis (CA) techniques multivariate used determine dominant modes UHI identify homogeneity between MASP. EOF method was obtain (T-mode EOF) define (S-mode EOF). In T-mode, three main recognized. first explained 66.7% total...
The significant wave height ( H s ) variability caused by wind anomalies associated with the co‐occurrence of Madden‐Julian Oscillation (MJO) and El Niño–Southern (ENSO) was investigated in New Zealand region. For this purpose, composites were created using 23 years (1979–2002) modelled data during November–March periods, when simultaneous ENSO‐MJO phase pairs are potentially most active. results show striking features: Niño‐related conditions (which consist increased along west south coasts...
Abstract El Niño is generally associated with below-average rainfall in northeastern Brazil (NEB). In 2019, however, the opposite pattern was observed during an episode. Here, we explore mechanisms that overwhelmed typical Niño-related conditions and resulted above-average NEB. We focus on austral autumn, when most related to anomalies region. The analysis of data from weather stations Global Precipitation Climatology Project, upper- lower-level circulation reanalysis data, sea surface...