A5064238097- Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations
- Climate variability and models
- Precipitation Measurement and Analysis
- Oceanographic and Atmospheric Processes
- Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones Research
- Space Exploration and Technology
- Aerospace Engineering and Energy Systems
- Energy Load and Power Forecasting
- Planetary Science and Exploration
- Climate change impacts on agriculture
- Ocean Waves and Remote Sensing
- Hydrology and Watershed Management Studies
- Atmospheric and Environmental Gas Dynamics
- Spaceflight effects on biology
- Rocket and propulsion systems research
- Spacecraft Design and Technology
- Spacecraft and Cryogenic Technologies
University of Reading
2018-2023
Met Office
2023
National Centre for Earth Observation
2019
Abstract Africa is poised for a revolution in the quality and relevance of weather predictions, with potential great benefits terms human economic security. This will be driven by recent international progress nowcasting, numerical prediction, theoretical tropical dynamics, forecast communication, but depend on suitable scientific investment being made. The commercial sector has recognized this opportunity new products are made available to African stakeholders. At time, it vital that robust...
This paper presents a new set of numerical simulations two colliding density currents in idealized framework, integrating the Boussinesq vorticity equation rectangular bounded domain. These are used to examine dynamical features collision, light recent laboratory experiments. The collision dynamics present various interesting features. Here we have focused on interface slope at front unequal and maximum height reached by fluid after collision. For secondary triggering atmospheric convection...
Abstract Convection-permitting ensemble prediction systems (CP-ENS) have been implemented in the midlatitudes for weather forecasting time scales over past decade, enabled by increase computational resources. Recently, efforts are being made to study benefits of CP-ENS tropical regions. This examines forecasts produced Met Office East Africa, 24 cases period April–May 2019. The CP-ENS, an with parameterized convection (Glob-ENS), and their deterministic counterparts evaluated against...
Abstract Forecasting rainfall in the tropics is a major challenge for numerical weather prediction. Convection-permitting (CP) models are intended to enable forecasts of high-impact events. Development and operation these has only just been realized. This study describes evaluates suite recently developed Met Office Unified Model CP ensemble over three domains Southeast Asia, covering Malaysia, Indonesia, Philippines. The fractions skill score used assess spatial scale dependence...
Dynamical downscaling of ensemble forecasts to convection‐permitting resolutions aims improve forecast skill by explicitly resolving mesoscale dynamical features. The success this approach is dependent on the ability model spin up smaller features embedded in larger‐scale flow and provide more local information than could be inferred from knowledge climatological response large‐scale alone. Here we test whether such additional obtained Met Office Global Regional Ensemble Prediction Systems...
Abstract The study uses numerical weather prediction models to predict the occurrence of heavy convective rainfall associated with passage African Easterly Wave (AEW) during period 23–26 August 2017 over Nigeria. Fraction skill score (FSS) and method for object‐based diagnostic evaluation (MODE) verification techniques were applied verify how well high‐impact event demonstrate these tools can support operational forecasting. Ensemble model forecasts at a scale from UK Met Office Unified...
Abstract Testbeds have become integral to advancing the transfer of knowledge and capabilities from research operational weather forecasting in many parts world. The first high-impact testbed tropical Africa was recently carried out through African Science for Weather Information Forecasting Techniques (SWIFT) program, with participation researchers forecasters Senegal, Ghana, Nigeria, Kenya, United Kingdom, international pan-African organizations. aims were trial new nowcasting products...
Abstract East Africa is particularly vulnerable to weather extremes, with severe linked thousands of deaths per year. Improved forecasts convective events in this region are urgently needed, from both nowcasting and numerical prediction models. Improving these requires further knowledge convection region. This study aims improve understanding Africa, based on a six‐year climatology life cycles the associated precipitation. Convective systems identified as contiguous areas cold cloud...
Abstract The frequency of flash floods resulting from heavy rainfall over West Africa has increased in recent years with serious socio‐economic consequences. Therefore, the need to utilize numerical weather prediction models forecast events reliably is also rising at many operational meteorological centres Africa. This paper evaluates performance Consortium for Small‐scale Modelling (COSMO) model German Meteorological Services (DWD) predicting high‐impact that occurred between 19 and 26...
Many factors need to be considered when designing limited-area ensemble models forecast at short spatio-temporal scales. However, since the main motivation run them is capture inherent uncertainty small scales, especially for severe weather cases, representing such key producing skillful probabilistic forecasts. Arguably, initial and lateral boundary conditions are a major source of strategies have been explored initialise convective-scale ensembles but configuration that objectively better...
<p>Tropical Africa is subject to weather extremes at a variety of space- and time-scales, leading droughts, floods severe storms. The has huge impact on the local population: droughts dependent industries such as agriculture or fishing, which much population rely for their livelihoods, while storms can lead destruction property even loss life. Despite this, global numerical prediction performance remains notoriously poor in tropical Africa, particularly smaller...
<p>Climate change may affect sea breezes in their magnitude and occurrence, having direct implications for the hydrologic cycle desertification (i.e., development of breeze thunderstorms), air pollution dispersal, wind energy production, to name but a few. To date, trends multidecadal variability have been barely quantified because scarcity long-term series, low spatial-temporal resolution unreliability observations over land-sea surfaces. Recent studies showed an increase...
<p>Forecasting extreme rainfall in the tropics is a major challenge for numerical weather prediction. Convection-permitting (CP) models are intended to enable forecasts of high-impact events. Development and operation these has only just been realised. This study describes evaluates recently developed Met Office Unified Model CP ensemble varying resolutions over three domains Southeast Asia, covering Malaysia, Indonesia Philippines.</p><p>Fractions...
<p>Convection-permitting ensemble prediction systems (CP-ENS) have been implemented in the<br>mid-latitudes for weather forecasting timescales over the past decade, enabled by increase in<br>computational resources. Recently, efforts are being made to study benefits of CP-ENS for<br>tropical regions. This examines forecasts produced UK Met Office over<br>tropical East Africa, 24 cases period April-May 2019. The CP-ENS, an...