A5028237903- Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations
- Climate variability and models
- Precipitation Measurement and Analysis
- Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones Research
- Renaissance and Early Modern Studies
University of Leeds
2021-2022
University of Reading
2019
Abstract Africa is poised for a revolution in the quality and relevance of weather predictions, with potential great benefits terms human economic security. This will be driven by recent international progress nowcasting, numerical prediction, theoretical tropical dynamics, forecast communication, but depend on suitable scientific investment being made. The commercial sector has recognized this opportunity new products are made available to African stakeholders. At time, it vital that robust...
Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) are difficult to forecast due their inherent‐60 unpredictability and development from scales that subgrid in typical global models. Here the impacts of model representation convection on MCS structure downstream evolution examined using two configurations Met Office Unified Model: convection‐permitting (4.4‐km grid spacing) limited‐area Euro4 convection‐parametrizing (25‐km Global configurations. MCSs associated with a characteristic potential vorticity...
Abstract Convection-permitting ensemble prediction systems (CP-ENS) have been implemented in the midlatitudes for weather forecasting time scales over past decade, enabled by increase computational resources. Recently, efforts are being made to study benefits of CP-ENS tropical regions. This examines forecasts produced Met Office East Africa, 24 cases period April–May 2019. The CP-ENS, an with parameterized convection (Glob-ENS), and their deterministic counterparts evaluated against...
Ensemble forecasts are run operationally to determine the forecast uncertainty arising from initial condition, model physics and boundary condition uncertainty. However, global configuration ensembles, which use a convection parametrization scheme, may miss because of misrepresentation intense by such schemes. Here, impacts mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) on downstream ensemble skill evolution determined for case study. MCS perturbations (calculated‐15 difference between outputs...
Abstract Testbeds have become integral to advancing the transfer of knowledge and capabilities from research operational weather forecasting in many parts world. The first high-impact testbed tropical Africa was recently carried out through African Science for Weather Information Forecasting Techniques (SWIFT) program, with participation researchers forecasters Senegal, Ghana, Nigeria, Kenya, United Kingdom, international pan-African organizations. aims were trial new nowcasting products...
<p>Convection-permitting ensemble prediction systems (CP-ENS) have been implemented in the<br>mid-latitudes for weather forecasting timescales over the past decade, enabled by increase in<br>computational resources. Recently, efforts are being made to study benefits of CP-ENS for<br>tropical regions. This examines forecasts produced UK Met Office over<br>tropical East Africa, 24 cases period April-May 2019. The CP-ENS, an...