A5075053757- Climate variability and models
- Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations
- Climate change impacts on agriculture
- Hydrology and Drought Analysis
- Plant Water Relations and Carbon Dynamics
- Atmospheric and Environmental Gas Dynamics
- Climate Change and Health Impacts
- Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones Research
- Air Quality and Health Impacts
- Global Health Care Issues
- Health, Environment, Cognitive Aging
- Forecasting Techniques and Applications
- Geophysics and Gravity Measurements
- Neural Networks and Applications
- Complex Systems and Time Series Analysis
- Species Distribution and Climate Change
- Oceanographic and Atmospheric Processes
- demographic modeling and climate adaptation
Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya
2019-2025
Barcelona Supercomputing Center
2019-2025
CMCC Foundation - Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change
2022
National Research Council
2022
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
2022
Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate
2022
Abstract Weather and climate variations on subseasonal to decadal time scales can have enormous social, economic, environmental impacts, making skillful predictions these a valuable tool for decision-makers. As such, there is growing interest in the scientific, operational, applications communities developing forecasts improve our foreknowledge of extreme events. On seasonal (S2S) scales, include high-impact meteorological events such as tropical cyclones, extratropical storms, floods,...
Abstract The decadal time scale (∼1–10 years) bridges the gap between seasonal predictions and longer-term climate projections. It is a key planning for users in many sectors as they seek to adapt our rapidly changing climate. While significant advances using initialized models make skillful have been made last decades, including coordinated international experiments multimodel forecast exchanges, few user-focused services developed. Here we highlight potential of four case studies from...
Abstract Decadal climate predictions are a relatively new source of information for interannual to decadal time scales, which is increasing interest users. Forecast quality assessment essential identify windows opportunity (e.g., variables, regions, and forecast periods) with skill that can be used develop services inform users in several sectors define benchmarks improvements systems. This work evaluates the multi-model forecasts near-surface air temperature, precipitation, Atlantic...
Following efforts from leading centres for climate forecasting, sustained routine operational near-term predictions (NTCP) are now produced that bridge the gap between seasonal forecasts and change projections offering prospect of seamless services. Though NTCP is a new area science active research taking place to increase understanding processes mechanisms required produce skillful predictions, this significant technical achievement combines advances in initialisation with ensemble...
Abstract Decadal climate prediction, where models are initialized with the contemporaneous state of Earth system and run for a decade into future, represents new source near-term information to better inform decisions policies across key climate-sensitive sectors. This paper illustrates potential usefulness such predictions building service agricultural needs. In particular, we assess forecast quality multi-model in estimating two user-relevant drought indices, Standardized Precipitation...
Predicting the variations in climate for coming 1-10 years is of great interest decision makers, as this time horizon coincides with strategic planning stakeholders from climate-vulnerable sectors such agriculture. This study attempts to illustrate potential value decadal predictions development services by establishing interactions and collaboration concerned food production security. Building on our experience interacting users increased understanding their needs gathered over through...
Abstract. Hot-dry compound extremes have recently gained increasing attention due to their potential impacts on environments and societies. For these reasons, assessing climate predictions is essential providing reliable information such extremes. However, despite several studies focusing in the past projections, little known a multi-annual timescale. At this regard, decadal been produced provide useful for specific Thus, we evaluate ability of CMIP6 multi-model hindcast predicting hot-dry...
Abstract Drought and heat stress affect global wheat production food security. Since these climate hazards are expected to increase in frequency intensity due anthropogenic change, there is a growing need for effective planning adaptive actions at all timescales relevant the stakeholders users this sector. This work aims assessing forecast quality predicting evolution of drought by using user-relevant agro-climatic indices such as Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI)...
Abstract Decadal climate predictions are being increasingly used by stakeholders interested in the evolution of over coming decade. However, investigating added value those initialized decadal other sources information typically generally relies on forecast accuracy, while probabilistic aspects, although crucial to users, often overlooked. In this study, quality near-surface air temperature from has been assessed terms reliability, an essential characteristic simulation ensembles, and...
T remendous recent progress in climate prediction on subseasonal to decadal time scales has been enabled by better observations, data assimilation, and models originating from the weather simulation communities together with ever-increasing computational power.World Climate Research Program (WCRP) efforts led initially predictions one two seasons ahead becoming part of WMO operational infrastructure.More recently, a joint World Weather (WWRP) WCRP Subseasonal Seasonal Prediction Project...
© 2019 American Meteorological Society. For information regarding reuse of this content and general copyright information, consult the AMS Copyright Policy (www.ametsoc.org/PUBSReuseLicenses).CORRESPONDING AUTHOR: Dragana Bojovic, dragana.bojovic@bsc.es
We investigate the representation of compound hot-dry events in decadal predictions and their relationship with univariate hot dry components. use a CMIP6 multi-model ensemble (MME) 125 members from Decadal Climate Prediction Project (DCPP) hindcast simulations compare it different observational references. Our analysis focuses on first five lead years simulations, initialised every year 1960 to 2014. analyse skill predicting hot, ensemble. Specifically, we select days above 90th percentile...
We investigate the representation of hot-dry compound extremes in decadal predictions and their correlations with corresponding univariate extremes. use a multi-model ensemble (MME) 125 members from CMIP6 Decadal Climate Prediction Project (DCPP) hindcast simulations compare it different observational references. Our analysis focuses on average forecast years 2 to 5, forecasts initialised every year 1960 2014. analyse skill predicting hot, dry events MME. Specifically, we select days above...
Unfavourable and extreme climate events such as drought heat stress heavily impact the agriculture sector food security globally, of these hazards is expected to increase over upcoming years due anthropogenic change. Decadal predictions have been made available stakeholders in a potential source near-term information that provides forecasts for following 10 years, thus providing an important increasing preparedness adaptation. In this study, ability predict extremes on multi-annual timescale...
The forecast quality of multi-model seasonal-to-decadal climate predictions, as measured by metrics of, among others, accuracy and reliability, has been traditionally estimated considering time-average products for event thresholds that do not target the occurrence unusual events either monthly or seasonal duration. However, there is an increasing interest in some user communities represent extreme events. This presentation will discuss differences between traditional products, like mean...
Decadal prediction represents a source of near-term climate information that has the potential to support climate-related decisions in key socio-economic sectors are influenced by variability and change. While research illustrate ability decadal predictions forecasting varying conditions on multi-annual timescale is rapidly evolving, development services based such forecasts still its early stages. This study showcases value services. We summarize lessons learnt from coproducing forecast...
<p>Decadal climate predictions and forced projections both provide potentially useful information to users for the next ten years. They only differ in former being initialised with observations, while latter is not. Bringing together decadal non-initialised order seamless over decades a new challenging area of research. This can be achieved by comparing forecast quality global simulations their common prediction time horizons (up 10 years ahead), quantify how far initialisation...
<p>Decadal climate predictions are a new source of information for inter-annual to decadal time scales, which is increasing interest users. Forecast quality assessment essential identify windows opportunity (e.g., variables, regions, and lead times) with skill that can be used develop service inform users in several sectors. Also, it help monitor improvements current forecast systems. The Decadal Climate Prediction Project Component A (DCPP-A) the Coupled Model Intercom-parison...
<p>Unfavorable and extreme climate events such as drought heat stress affect wheat production food security globally. Predicting in the next decade is of great interest for decision-makers, this time horizon coincides with strategic planning many stakeholders sector. To address this, we assess forecast quality predicting evolution conditions using two proxy user-oriented indicators: Standardized Potential Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI6) Heat Magnitude Day (HMDI3) on a...