A5076409725- Climate variability and models
- Arctic and Antarctic ice dynamics
- Oceanographic and Atmospheric Processes
- Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations
- Climate change and permafrost
- Atmospheric and Environmental Gas Dynamics
- Methane Hydrates and Related Phenomena
- Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones Research
- Marine and coastal ecosystems
- Cryospheric studies and observations
- Geological Studies and Exploration
- Ocean Waves and Remote Sensing
- Geology and Paleoclimatology Research
- Arctic and Russian Policy Studies
- Ocean Acidification Effects and Responses
- Marine and fisheries research
- Climate Change Policy and Economics
- Geophysics and Gravity Measurements
- Marine and environmental studies
- Climate change impacts on agriculture
- Marine Bivalve and Aquaculture Studies
- Tree-ring climate responses
- Coral and Marine Ecosystems Studies
- Plant Water Relations and Carbon Dynamics
- Solar Radiation and Photovoltaics
Climat, Environnement, Couplages et Incertitudes
2019-2024
Centre Européen de Recherche et de Formation Avancée en Calcul Scientifique
2016-2024
Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique
2016-2024
Université de Toulouse
2019-2024
Géosciences Environnement Toulouse
2019-2024
NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory
2010-2018
Princeton University
2010-2018
Barcelona Supercomputing Center
2018
Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory
2018
NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research
2018
Abstract This paper describes the main characteristics of CNRM‐CM6‐1, fully coupled atmosphere‐ocean general circulation model sixth generation jointly developed by Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques (CNRM) and Cerfacs for phase Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6). The provides a description each component including coupling method new online output software. We emphasize where model's components have been updated with respect to former version, CNRM‐CM5.1. In...
Abstract This study introduces CNRM‐ESM2‐1, the Earth system (ES) model of second generation developed by CNRM‐CERFACS for sixth phase Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). CNRM‐ESM2‐1 offers a higher complexity than Atmosphere‐Ocean General Circulation CNRM‐CM6‐1 adding interactive ES components such as carbon cycle, aerosols, and atmospheric chemistry. As both models share same code, physical parameterizations, grid resolution, they offer fully traceable framework to investigate...
This paper provides an update on research in the relatively new and fast-moving field of decadal climate prediction, addresses use predictions not only for potential users such information but also improving our understanding processes system. External forcing influences throughout, their contributions to predictive skill become dominant after most improved from initialization with observations vanishes about 6–9 years. Recent multimodel results suggest that there is more North Atlantic,...
Abstract. The Decadal Climate Prediction Project (DCPP) is a coordinated multi-model investigation into decadal climate prediction, predictability, and variability. DCPP makes use of past experience in simulating predicting variability forced change gained from the fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison (CMIP5) elsewhere. It builds on recent improvements models, reanalysis data, methods initialization ensemble generation, data treatment analysis to propose an extended comprehensive prediction...
Abstract Tropical cyclones (TCs) are a hazard to life and property prominent element of the global climate system; therefore, understanding predicting TC location, intensity, frequency is both societal scientific significance. Methodologies exist predict basinwide, seasonally aggregated activity months, seasons, even years in advance. It shown that newly developed high-resolution model can produce skillful forecasts seasonal on spatial scales finer than from months seasons advance season....
Decadal predictions have a high profile in the climate science community and beyond, yet very little is known about their skill. Nor there any agreed protocol for estimating This paper proposes sound coordinated framework verification of decadal hindcast experiments. The illustrated hindcasts tailored to meet requirements specifications CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5). chosen metrics address key questions information content initialized hindcasts. These are: (1) Do...
Abstract Identifying the prime drivers of twentieth-century multidecadal variability in Atlantic Ocean is crucial for predicting how will evolve coming decades and resulting broad impacts on weather precipitation patterns around globe. Recently, Booth et al. showed that Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model, version 2, Earth system configuration (HadGEM2-ES) closely reproduces observed variations area-averaged North sea surface temperature twentieth century. The simulated HadGEM2-ES are...
Abstract. Polar amplification – the phenomenon where external radiative forcing produces a larger change in surface temperature at high latitudes than global average is key aspect of anthropogenic climate change, but its causes and consequences are not fully understood. The Amplification Model Intercomparison Project (PAMIP) contribution to sixth Coupled (CMIP6; Eyring et al., 2016) seeks improve our understanding this through coordinated set numerical model experiments documented here. In...
The climate impacts of the observed Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV) are investigated using GFDL CM2.1 and NCAR CESM1 coupled models. model North sea surface temperatures restored to fixed anomalies corresponding an estimate internally driven component AMV. Both models show that during boreal summer AMV alters Walker circulation generates precipitation over whole tropical belt. A warm phase yields reduced western United States, drier conditions Mediterranean basin, wetter northern...
The possibility that Arctic sea ice loss weakens mid-latitude westerlies, promoting more severe cold winters, has sparked than a decade of scientific debate, with apparent support from observations but inconclusive modelling evidence. Here we show sixteen models contributing to the Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project simulate weakening westerlies in response projected loss. We develop an emergent constraint based on eddy feedback, which is 1.2 3 times too weak models,...
Abstract This study demonstrates skillful seasonal prediction of 2-m air temperature and precipitation over land in a new high-resolution climate model developed by the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory explores possible sources skill. The authors employ statistical optimization approach to identify most predictable components mean demonstrate predictive skill these components. First, improved previous lower-resolution Niño-3.4 index other aspects interest is shown. Then, for boreal...
We establish the first intermodel comparison of seasonal to interannual predictability present‐day Arctic climate by performing coordinated sets idealized ensemble predictions with four state‐of‐the‐art global models. For sea ice extent and volume, there is potential predictive skill for lead times up 3 years, prediction errors have similar growth rates magnitudes across Spatial patterns differ substantially between models, but some features are robust. Sea concentration largest in marginal...
Abstract Recent Arctic sea ice seasonal prediction efforts and forecast skill assessments have primarily focused on pan‐Arctic extent (SIE). In this work, we move toward stakeholder‐relevant spatial scales, investigating the regional of in a Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) system. Using suite retrospective initialized forecasts spanning 1981–2015 made with coupled atmosphere‐ocean‐sea ice‐land model, show that predictions detrended SIE are skillful at lead times up to 11 months....
Abstract Decadal prediction experiments were conducted as part of phase 5 the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) using GFDL Climate Model, version 2.1 (CM2.1) forecast system. The abrupt warming North Atlantic Subpolar Gyre (SPG) that was observed in mid-1990s is considered a case study to evaluate capabilities and better understand reasons for changes. Initializing CM2.1 coupled system produces high skill retrospectively predicting shift, which not captured by uninitialized...
Abstract We present seasonal predictions of Arctic sea ice extent (SIE) over the 1982–2013 period using two suites retrospective forecasts initialized from a fully coupled ocean‐atmosphere‐sea assimilation system. High skill scores are found in predicting year‐to‐year fluctuations SIE, with significant correlations up to 7 month ahead for September detrended anomalies. Predictions recent era, which coincides an improved observational coverage, outperform earlier most target months. find,...
Abstract The decadal predictability of sea surface temperature (SST) and 2-m air (T2m) in the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) hindcasts, which are part Fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project experiments, has been investigated using an average time (APT) analysis. Comparison retrospective forecasts initialized GFDL Ensemble Data Assimilation system with uninitialized historical forcing simulations same model allows identification internal multidecadal pattern (IMP) for SST...
The North Atlantic is among the few places where decadal climate variations are considered potentially predictable. physical mechanisms of variability hypothesized to be associated with fluctuations meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). Perfect model predictability experiments using GFDL CM2.1 analyzed investigate potential AMOC. Results indicate that AMOC predictable up 20 years. We further connect readily observable fields. show modeled surface and subsurface signatures defined by...
Abstract The link at 26.5°N between the Atlantic meridional heat transport (MHT) and overturning circulation (MOC) is investigated in two climate models, GFDL Climate Model version 2.1 (CM2.1) NCAR Community System 4 (CCSM4), compared with recent observational estimates from Rapid Change–Meridional Overturning Circulation Heatflux Array (RAPID–MOCHA) array. Despite a stronger-than-observed MOC magnitude, both models underestimate mean MHT because of an overly diffuse thermocline. Biases...
Abstract The seasonal predictability of extratropical storm tracks in the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory’s (GFDL)’s high-resolution climate model has been investigated using an average time analysis. leading predictable components are ENSO-related spatial patterns for both boreal winter and summer, second mostly due to changes external radiative forcing multidecadal oceanic variability. These two seasons show significant correlation skill all leads from 0 9 months, while predicting...
The impacts of the Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV) on summertime North American climate are investigated using three coupled global models (CGCMs) in which sea surface temperatures (SSTs) restored to observed AMV anomalies. Large ensemble simulations performed estimate how can modulate occurrence extreme weather such as heat waves. It is shown that, response an warming, all simulate a precipitation deficit and warming over northern Mexico southern United States that lead increased...