A5015004258- Climate variability and models
- Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations
- Oceanographic and Atmospheric Processes
- Atmospheric and Environmental Gas Dynamics
- Geology and Paleoclimatology Research
- Arctic and Antarctic ice dynamics
- Marine and coastal ecosystems
- Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones Research
- Geophysics and Gravity Measurements
- Atmospheric Ozone and Climate
- Ocean Acidification Effects and Responses
- Plant Water Relations and Carbon Dynamics
- Methane Hydrates and Related Phenomena
- Geological and Geophysical Studies
- Marine and environmental studies
- Climate change and permafrost
- French Urban and Social Studies
- demographic modeling and climate adaptation
- Geological and Tectonic Studies in Latin America
- Hydrology and Drought Analysis
- Cryospheric studies and observations
- Climate Change Policy and Economics
- Geological Studies and Exploration
- Medical Imaging Techniques and Applications
- Earthquake Detection and Analysis
Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique
2014-2024
Centre Européen de Recherche et de Formation Avancée en Calcul Scientifique
2015-2024
Géosciences Environnement Toulouse
2017-2024
Climat, Environnement, Couplages et Incertitudes
2017-2024
Université de Toulouse
2017-2024
Université Paris Sciences et Lettres
2024
École Normale Supérieure - PSL
2024
Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique
2024
Sorbonne Université
2024
École Normale Supérieure
2024
A new version of the general circulation model CNRM-CM has been developed jointly by CNRM-GAME (Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques—Groupe d'études l'Atmosphère Météorologique) and Cerfacs Européen Recherche et Formation Avancée) in order to contribute phase 5 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). The purpose study is describe its main features provide a preliminary assessment mean climatology. CNRM-CM5.1 includes atmospheric ARPEGE-Climat (v5.2), ocean NEMO (v3.2), land...
Abstract This paper describes the main characteristics of CNRM‐CM6‐1, fully coupled atmosphere‐ocean general circulation model sixth generation jointly developed by Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques (CNRM) and Cerfacs for phase Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6). The provides a description each component including coupling method new online output software. We emphasize where model's components have been updated with respect to former version, CNRM‐CM5.1. In...
The winter of 2009/2010 was characterized by record persistence the negative phase North‐Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) which caused several severe cold spells over Northern and Western Europe. This somehow unusual with respect to most recent ones arose concurrently public debate on climate change, during after Copenhagen negotiations. We show however that European temperature anomaly 2010 (i) not extreme relative winters past six decades, (ii) warmer than expected from its record‐breaking...
This paper provides an update on research in the relatively new and fast-moving field of decadal climate prediction, addresses use predictions not only for potential users such information but also improving our understanding processes system. External forcing influences throughout, their contributions to predictive skill become dominant after most improved from initialization with observations vanishes about 6–9 years. Recent multimodel results suggest that there is more North Atlantic,...
Abstract The western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) is closely related to Asian climate. Previous examination of changes in the WPSH found a westward extension since late 1970s, which has contributed interdecadal transition East reason for unknown, however. present study suggests that this significant change partly due atmosphere’s response observed Indian Ocean–western (IWP) warming. Coordinated by European Union’s Sixth Framework Programme, Understanding Dynamics Coupled Climate System...
Diagnostics combining atmospheric reanalysis and station-based temperature data for 1950–2003 indicate that European heat waves can be associated with the occurrence of two specific summertime circulation regimes. Evidence is presented during record warm summer 2003, excitation these regimes was significantly favored by anomalous tropical Atlantic heating related to wetter-than-average conditions in both Caribbean basin Sahel. Given persistence climate anomalies, their seasonality,...
Abstract. The Decadal Climate Prediction Project (DCPP) is a coordinated multi-model investigation into decadal climate prediction, predictability, and variability. DCPP makes use of past experience in simulating predicting variability forced change gained from the fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison (CMIP5) elsewhere. It builds on recent improvements models, reanalysis data, methods initialization ensemble generation, data treatment analysis to propose an extended comprehensive prediction...
The risk of extreme heat waves in Europe like the unprecedented one summer 2003 is likely to increase future, calling for increased understanding these phenomena. From an analysis meteorological records over 58 years, we show that hot summers are preceded by winter rainfall deficits Southern Europe. Subsequent drought and spreads northward throughout early summer, due atmospheric transport anomalously warm dry air from southerly wind episodes. This shown observations supported mesoscale...
Abstract Stratospheric aerosols from large tropical explosive volcanic eruptions backscatter shortwave radiation and reduce the global mean surface temperature. Observations suggest that they also favour an El Niño within 2 years following eruption. Modelling studies have, however, so far reached no consensus on either sign or physical mechanism of response to volcanism. Here we show tends peak during year in simulations Fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Targeted climate...
Abstract The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) has been, and will continue to be, a key factor in the modulation of climate change both locally globally. However, there remains considerable uncertainty recent AMOC evolution. Here, we show that multimodel mean strengthened by approximately 10% from 1850–1985 new simulations 6th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), larger than was seen CMIP5. Across models, strength trend up 1985 is related proxy for aerosol forcing....
Over the last 70 years, extreme heat has been increasing at a disproportionate rate in Western Europe, compared to climate model simulations. This mismatch is not well understood. Here, we show that substantial fraction (0.8 °C [0.2°-1.4 °C] of 3.4 per global warming degree) extremes trend induced by atmospheric circulation changes, through more frequent southerly flows over Europe. In 170 available simulations from 32 different models analyzed, including 3 large ensembles, none have...
The observed low-frequency winter atmospheric variability of the North Atlantic–European region and its relationship with global surface oceanic conditions is investigated based on climate weather regimes paradigm. Asymmetries between two phases Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) are found in position Azores high and, to a weaker extent, Icelandic low. There significant eastward displacement or expansion toward Europe for NAO+ regime compared NAO− regime. This barotropic signal different datasets...
Abstract The winter of 2012 experienced peculiar atmospheric conditions that triggered a massive formation dense water on the continental shelf and in deep basin Gulf Lions. Multiplatforms observations enabled synoptic view spreading at scale. Five months after its formation, coastal origin created distinct bottom layer up to few hundreds meters thick over central part NW Mediterranean basin, which was overlaid by newly formed produced open‐sea convection. These new highlight role intense...
The Vasco-Cirene program explores how strong air-sea interactions promoted by the shallow thermocline and high sea surface temperature in Seychelles-Chagos ridge results marked variability at synoptic, intraseasonal, interannual time scales. Cirene oceanographic cruise collected oceanic, atmospheric, flux observations this region January–February 2007. contemporaneous Vasco field experiment complemented these measurements with balloon deployments from Seychelles. also contributed to...
One of the most robust remote impacts El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is teleconnection to tropical North Atlantic (TNA) sea surface temperature (SST) in boreal spring. However, important questions still remain open. In particular, timing ENSO–TNA relationship lacks understanding. The three previously proposed mechanisms rely on dynamics involving a time lag one season with respect ENSO mature phase winter, but recent results have shown that persistence into spring necessary for...
In this paper we compare the simulated Arctic Ocean in 15 global ocean–sea ice models framework of Coordinated Ocean-ice Reference Experiments, phase II (CORE-II). Most these are ocean and sea-ice components coupled climate used Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) experiments. We mainly focus on hydrography interior, state Atlantic Water layer heat volume transports at gateways Davis Strait, Bering Fram Strait Barents Sea Opening. found that there is a large spread...
Abstract. The present work aims at better understanding regional climate–aerosol interactions by studying the relationships between aerosols and synoptic atmospheric circulation over Euro-Mediterranean region. Two 40-year simulations (1979–2018) have been carried out with version 6.3 of Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques (National for Meteorological Research) – Aire Limitée Adaptation dynamique Développement InterNational (CNRM-ALADIN) climate model, one using interactive other...
Abstract The study of Decadal Climate Variability (DCV) and Predictability is the interdisciplinary endeavor to characterize, understand, attribute, simulate, predict slow, multiyear variations climate at global (e.g., recent slowdown mean temperature rise in early 2000s) regional decadal modulation hurricane activity Atlantic, ongoing drought California or Sahel 1970s–80s, etc.) scales. This remains very challenging despite decades research, extensive progress system modeling, improvements...
Observing, modelling and understanding the climate-scale variability of deep water formation (DWF) in North-Western Mediterranean Sea remains today very challenging. In this study, we first characterize interannual phenomenon by a thorough reanalysis observations order to establish reference time series. These quantitative indicators include 31 observed years for yearly maximum mixed layer depth over period 1980–2013 detailed multi-indicator description 2007–2013. Then hindcast simulation is...