A5073806842- Climate variability and models
- Oceanographic and Atmospheric Processes
- Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations
- Atmospheric and Environmental Gas Dynamics
- Arctic and Antarctic ice dynamics
- Marine and coastal ecosystems
- Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones Research
- Ocean Acidification Effects and Responses
- Climate change and permafrost
- Geology and Paleoclimatology Research
- Atmospheric Ozone and Climate
- Geophysics and Gravity Measurements
- Marine and fisheries research
- Cryospheric studies and observations
- Methane Hydrates and Related Phenomena
- Hydrology and Drought Analysis
- demographic modeling and climate adaptation
- Coastal and Marine Management
- Ocean Waves and Remote Sensing
- Reservoir Engineering and Simulation Methods
- Geological Studies and Exploration
- Geological and Geophysical Studies
- Atmospheric chemistry and aerosols
- Global Energy and Sustainability Research
- Science and Climate Studies
Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research
2016-2025
University of Bergen
2016-2025
Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center
2016-2025
University of Cape Town
2015-2025
Universidade Federal de Santa Catarina
2024
Earth Science Institute of the Slovak Academy of Sciences
2014-2023
The University of Queensland
2023
Pohang University of Science and Technology
2022
A.M. Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics
2022
Universidad Complutense de Madrid
2022
A multi-model ensemble-based system for seasonal-to-interannual prediction has been developed in a joint European project known as DEMETER (Development of Multimodel Ensemble Prediction System Seasonal to Interannual Prediction). The comprises seven global atmosphere–ocean coupled models, each running from an ensemble initial conditions. Comprehensive hindcast evaluation demonstrates the enhanced reliability and skill multimodel over more conventional single-model approach. In addition,...
Abstract This paper describes the mean ocean circulation and tropical variability simulated by Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (MPI-M) coupled atmosphere–ocean general model (AOGCM). Results are presented from a version of that served as prototype Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) simulations. The does not require flux adjustment to maintain stable climate. A control simulation with present-day greenhouse gases is analyzed, key oceanic...
A new field called "decadal prediction" will use initialized climate models to produce time-evolving predictions of regional that bridge ENSO forecasting and future change projections.
Abstract The western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) is closely related to Asian climate. Previous examination of changes in the WPSH found a westward extension since late 1970s, which has contributed interdecadal transition East reason for unknown, however. present study suggests that this significant change partly due atmosphere’s response observed Indian Ocean–western (IWP) warming. Coordinated by European Union’s Sixth Framework Programme, Understanding Dynamics Coupled Climate System...
Tropical cyclones (TC) under different climate conditions in the Northern Hemisphere have been investigated with Max Planck Institute (MPI) coupled (ECHAM5/MPI-OM) and atmosphere (ECHAM5) models. The intensity size of TC depend crucially on resolution higher wind speed smaller scales at resolutions. typical is reduced by a factor 2.3 from T63 to T319 using distance maximum centre storm as measure. full three-dimensional structure storms becomes increasingly more realistic increased.For...
Abstract Extratropical cyclones and how they may change in a warmer climate have been investigated detail with high-resolution version of the ECHAM5 global model. A spectral resolution T213 (63 km) is used for two 32-yr periods at end twentieth twenty-first centuries integrated Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) A1B scenario. Extremes pressure, vorticity, wind, precipitation associated are compared lower-resolution simulation. Comparison observations extreme wind speeds...
Weather and climate extremes are identified as major areas necessitating further progress in research have thus been selected one of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) Grand Challenges. Here, we provide an overview current challenges opportunities for scientific cross-community collaboration on topic understanding, modeling predicting extreme events based expert workshop organized part implementation WCRP Challenge Extremes. In general, development event depends a favorable initial...
A new 46‐year hindcast dataset for seasonal‐to‐annual ensemble predictions has been created using a multi‐model of 5 state‐of‐the‐art coupled atmosphere‐ocean circulation models. The outperforms any the single‐models in forecasting tropical Pacific SSTs because reduced RMS errors and enhanced dispersion at all lead‐times. Systematic are considerably over previous generation (DEMETER). Probabilistic skill scores show higher than DEMETER 4–6 month forecast range. However, substantially...
Abstract Wide disagreement among individual modeling studies has contributed to a debate on the role of recent sea ice loss in Arctic amplification global warming and Siberian wintertime cooling trend. We perform coordinated experiments with six atmospheric general circulation models forced by observed climatological daily concentration surface temperature. The results indicate that impact decline is rather limited high‐latitude lower troposphere winter, changes do not significantly lead...
Sea surface temperature (SST) variability in the tropical Atlantic Ocean strongly impacts climate on surrounding continents. On interannual time scales, highest SST occurs eastern equatorial region and off coast of southwestern Africa. The pattern resembles Pacific El Niño, but features notable differences, has been discussed context various modes, that is, reoccurring patterns resulting from particular interactions system. Here, we attempt to reconcile those different definitions,...
Abstract As climate change accelerates, societies and climate-sensitive socioeconomic sectors cannot continue to rely on the past as a guide possible future hazards. Operational decadal predictions offer potential inform current adaptation increase resilience by filling important gap between seasonal forecasts projections. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has recognized this in 2017 established WMO Lead Centre for Annual Decadal Climate Predictions (shortened “Lead Centre” below),...
Atlantic and Benguela Niño events substantially affect the tropical region, with far-reaching consequences on local marine ecosystems, African climates, El Southern Oscillation. While accurate forecasts of these are invaluable, state-of-the-art dynamic forecasting systems have shown limited predictive capabilities. Thus, extent to which variability is predictable remains an open question. This study explores potential deep learning in this context. Using a simple convolutional neural network...
Abstract An observational-based analysis of coupled variability in the equatorial Atlantic and its seasonality is presented. Regression shows that three elements Bjerknes positive feedback exist are spatially similar to those Pacific. The cross-correlation functions also consistent with an ocean–atmosphere mode. However, growth rate up 50% weaker, explained variance significantly lower. strong boreal spring summer, weak other seasons, which explains why largest sea surface temperature...
The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon, originating in the Tropical Pacific, is strongest natural interannual climate signal and has widespread effects on global system ecology of Pacific. Any strong change ENSO statistics will therefore have serious climatic ecological consequences. Most models do simulate ENSO, although large biases exist with respect to its characteristics. response warming differs strongly from model thus highly uncertain. Some an increase amplitude, others a...
Abstract Analyses of ocean observations and model simulations suggest that there have been considerable changes in the thermohaline circulation (THC) during last century. These are likely to be result natural multidecadal climate variability driven by low-frequency variations North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) through Labrador Sea convection. Indications a sustained THC weakening not seen few decades. Instead, strengthening since 1980s is observed. The combined assessment hydrography data...
Abstract A new, non-flux-corrected, global climate model is introduced, the Kiel Climate Model (KCM), which will be used to study internal variability from interannual millennial time scales and predictability of first second kind. The version described here a coarse-resolution that employed in extended-range integrations several millennia. KCM’s performance tropical Pacific with respect mean state, annual cycle, El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) described. Additionally, response warming...
For the eastern tropical Atlantic two recurring El Niño‐like phenomena with high interannual SST anomalies have been described, one centered in equatorial region as part of zonal mode and off Angola referred to Benguela Niño. Both events are supposed be generated not locally but by a relaxation trade winds western Atlantic. Here connection between variations regions is investigated observational data sets well ocean model simulations. They correlated such an extent that joint should rather...
Abstract The twentieth-century Northern Hemisphere surface climate exhibits a long-term warming trend largely caused by anthropogenic forcing, with natural decadal variability superimposed on it. This study addresses the possible origin and strength of internal in during recent decades. authors present results from set model simulations that suggest multidecadal North Atlantic–Arctic sector could have considerably contributed to since 1980. Although covering only few percent earth’s surface,...