A5022199034- Climate variability and models
- Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones Research
- Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations
- Atmospheric and Environmental Gas Dynamics
- Ocean Waves and Remote Sensing
- Climate change impacts on agriculture
- Hydrology and Watershed Management Studies
- Geophysics and Gravity Measurements
- Cryospheric studies and observations
- Distributed and Parallel Computing Systems
- Oceanographic and Atmospheric Processes
- Plant Water Relations and Carbon Dynamics
- Scientific Computing and Data Management
- demographic modeling and climate adaptation
- Hydrology and Drought Analysis
- Hydrological Forecasting Using AI
- Flood Risk Assessment and Management
- Methane Hydrates and Related Phenomena
- Arctic and Antarctic ice dynamics
- Species Distribution and Climate Change
- Climate Change and Environmental Impact
- Climate change and permafrost
- Environmental and Ecological Studies
- Geological formations and processes
- Research Data Management Practices
Ouranos
2021-2025
Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya
2017-2022
Barcelona Supercomputing Center
2017-2022
National Research Council
2022
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
2022
Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate
2022
CMCC Foundation - Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change
2022
Institut Català de Ciències del Clima
2014-2015
Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute
2014
Stockholm University
2011-2013
The Earth system model EC-Earth3 for contributions to CMIP6 is documented here, with its flexible coupling framework, major configurations, a methodology ensuring the simulations are comparable across different high-performance computing (HPC) systems, and physical performance of base configurations over historical period. variety possible sub-models reflects broad interests in EC-Earth community. key metrics demonstrate behavior biases well within frame known from recent CMIP models. With...
Abstract A multimodel, multiresolution set of simulations over the period 1950–2014 using a common forcing protocol from CMIP6 HighResMIP have been completed by six modeling groups. Analysis tropical cyclone performance two different tracking algorithms suggests that enhanced resolution toward 25 km typically leads to more frequent and stronger cyclones, together with improvements in spatial distribution storm structure. Both these factors reduce typical GCM biases seen at lower resolution....
Abstract There is a growing need for skilful predictions of climate up to decade ahead. Decadal show high skill surface temperature, but confidence in forecasts precipitation and atmospheric circulation much lower. Recent advances seasonal annual prediction that the signal-to-noise ratio can be too small models, requiring very large ensemble extract predictable signal. Here, we reassess decadal using larger than previously available, reveal significant over land circulation, addition...
Abstract. The Earth System Model EC-Earth3 for contributions to CMIP6 is documented here, with its flexible coupling framework, major model configurations, a methodology ensuring the simulations are comparable across different HPC systems, and physical performance of base configurations over historical period. variety possible sub-models reflects broad interests in EC-Earth community. key metrics demonstrate behaviour biases well within frame known from recent CMIP models. With improved...
Future changes in tropical cyclone properties are an important component of climate change impacts and risk for many midlatitude countries. In this study we assess the performance a multimodel ensemble models, at resolutions ranging from 250 to 25 km. We use common experimental design including both atmosphere-only coupled simulations run over period 1950-2050, with two tracking algorithms applied uniformly across models. There overall improvements frequency, spatial distribution, intensity...
Abstract. A new global high-resolution coupled climate model, EC-Earth3P-HR has been developed by the EC-Earth consortium, with a resolution of approximately 40 km for atmosphere and 0.25∘ ocean, alongside standard-resolution version EC-Earth3P (80 atmosphere, 1.0∘ ocean). The model forcing simulations follow High Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP) protocol. According to this protocol, all are made both high standard resolutions. optimized respect scalability, performance,...
Abstract. The Earth System Model Evaluation Tool (ESMValTool) is a community diagnostics and performance metrics tool designed to improve comprehensive routine evaluation of system models (ESMs) participating in the Coupled Intercomparison Project (CMIP). It has undergone rapid development since first release 2016 now well-tested that provides end-to-end provenance tracking ensure reproducibility. consists (1) an easy-to-install, well-documented Python package providing core functionalities...
Abstract. In this paper, we present and evaluate the skill of an EC-Earth3.3 decadal prediction system contributing to Decadal Climate Prediction Project – Component A (DCPP-A). This is capable skilfully simulating past global mean surface temperature variations at interannual forecast times as well local in regions such tropical Atlantic, Indian Ocean most continental areas, although comes from representation external radiative forcings. benefit initialization predictive evident some areas...
Abstract. We examine the influence of increased resolution on four long-standing biases using five different climate models developed within PRIMAVERA project. The are warm eastern tropical oceans, double Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), Southern Ocean, and cold North Atlantic. Atmosphere increases from ∼100–200 to ∼25–50 km, ocean ∼1∘ (eddy-parametrized) ∼0.25∘ (eddy-present). For one model, also reaches 1/12∘ (eddy-rich). ensemble mean individual fully coupled general circulation...
This paper summarizes the forecast methods, outputs and skill offered by twelve agencies for seasonal tropical cyclone (TC) activity around world. These use a variety of techniques ranging from statistical models to dynamical predict basinwide regional activity. In addition, several hybrid statistical/dynamical now TC track density as well landfall likelihood. Realtime Atlantic hurricane forecasts have shown low in April, modest June good August at predicting when evaluated over 2003-2018....
Abstract The decadal time scale (∼1–10 years) bridges the gap between seasonal predictions and longer-term climate projections. It is a key planning for users in many sectors as they seek to adapt our rapidly changing climate. While significant advances using initialized models make skillful have been made last decades, including coordinated international experiments multimodel forecast exchanges, few user-focused services developed. Here we highlight potential of four case studies from...
Abstract Decadal climate predictions are a relatively new source of information for interannual to decadal time scales, which is increasing interest users. Forecast quality assessment essential identify windows opportunity (e.g., variables, regions, and forecast periods) with skill that can be used develop services inform users in several sectors define benchmarks improvements systems. This work evaluates the multi-model forecasts near-surface air temperature, precipitation, Atlantic...
Abstract ESPO-G6-R2 v1.0 is a set of statistically downscaled and bias-adjusted climate simulations based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) models. The dataset composed daily timeseries three variables: maximum temperature, minimum temperature precipitation. Data are available from 1950 to 2100 over North America. simulation ensemble comprised 14 models driven by two emissions scenarios (SSP2-4.5 SSP3-7.0). In this paper, we describe workflow used for bias-adjustment,...
Abstract The Paris Agreement calls for efforts to limit anthropogenic global warming less than 1.5 °C above preindustrial levels. However, natural internal variability may exacerbate produce temporary excursions °C. Such would not necessarily exceed the Agreement, but provide a warning that threshold is being approached. Here we develop new capability predict probability temperature will levels in coming 5 years. For period 2017 2021 38% and 10% chance, respectively, of monthly or yearly...
Abstract. A new global high-resolution coupled climate model, EC-Earth3P-HR has been developed by the EC-Earth consortium, with a resolution of approximately 40 km for atmosphere and 0.25 degree ocean, alongside standard version EC-Earth3P (80 atmosphere, 1.0 ocean). The model forcing simulations follow HighResMIP protocol. According to this protocol all are made both high resolutions. optimized respect scalability, performance, data-storage post-processing. In accordance no specific tuning...
Abstract. This paper complements a series of now four publications that document the release Earth System Model Evaluation Tool (ESMValTool) v2.0. It describes new diagnostics on hydrological cycle, extreme events, impact assessment, regional evaluations, and ensemble member selection. The are developed by large community scientists aiming to facilitate evaluation comparison system models (ESMs) which participating in Coupled Intercomparison Project (CMIP). second this tool aims support ESMs...
Abstract The recent emergence of near-term climate prediction, wherein models are initialized with the contemporaneous state Earth system and integrated up to 10 years into future, has prompted development three different multiannual forecasting techniques North Atlantic hurricane frequency. Descriptions these approaches, as well their respective skill, available in peer-reviewed literature, but because various studies sufficiently details (e.g., period covered, metric used compute measure...
Abstract Decadal climate prediction, where models are initialized with the contemporaneous state of Earth system and run for a decade into future, represents new source near-term information to better inform decisions policies across key climate-sensitive sectors. This paper illustrates potential usefulness such predictions building service agricultural needs. In particular, we assess forecast quality multi-model in estimating two user-relevant drought indices, Standardized Precipitation...
Abstract Previous studies have shown that the number, intensity, and structure of simulated tropical cyclones (TCs) in climate models get closer to observations as horizontal resolution is increased. However, sensitivity cyclone precipitation moisture budget changes has received less attention. In this study, we use five-model ensemble from project PRIMAVERA/HighResMIP investigate systematic water a range resolutions 1° 0.25°. Our results show that, despite large change distribution TC...
Predicting the variations in climate for coming 1-10 years is of great interest decision makers, as this time horizon coincides with strategic planning stakeholders from climate-vulnerable sectors such agriculture. This study attempts to illustrate potential value decadal predictions development services by establishing interactions and collaboration concerned food production security. Building on our experience interacting users increased understanding their needs gathered over through...