A5072711039- Climate variability and models
- Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations
- Atmospheric and Environmental Gas Dynamics
- Hydrology and Drought Analysis
- Wine Industry and Tourism
- demographic modeling and climate adaptation
- Plant Water Relations and Carbon Dynamics
- Oceanographic and Atmospheric Processes
- Horticultural and Viticultural Research
- Climate change impacts on agriculture
- Hydrology and Watershed Management Studies
- Historical and socio-economic studies of Spain and related regions
- Complex Systems and Time Series Analysis
- Global Energy and Sustainability Research
- Neural Networks and Applications
- Advanced Computational Techniques and Applications
- Marine and coastal ecosystems
Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya
2021-2025
Barcelona Supercomputing Center
2021-2025
Universitat de Barcelona
2024
Universidad Complutense de Madrid
2022
Abstract Future precipitation changes are typically estimated from climate model simulations, while the credibility of such projections needs to be assessed by their ability capture observed changes. Here we evaluate how skillfully historical simulations contributing Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) in mean and extreme precipitation. We find that CMIP6 represent over large parts Europe, Asia, northeastern North America, South America western Australia, whereas a lack...
Abstract Decadal climate predictions are a relatively new source of information for interannual to decadal time scales, which is increasing interest users. Forecast quality assessment essential identify windows opportunity (e.g., variables, regions, and forecast periods) with skill that can be used develop services inform users in several sectors define benchmarks improvements systems. This work evaluates the multi-model forecasts near-surface air temperature, precipitation, Atlantic...
Abstract The occurrence of extreme climate events in the coming years is modulated by both global warming and internal variability. Anticipating changes frequency intensity such advance may help minimize impact on climate-vulnerable sectors society. Decadal predictions have been developed as a source information relevant for decision-making at multi-annual timescales. We evaluate multi-model forecast quality CMIP6 decadal hindcasts predicting set indices measuring different characteristics...
Several aspects of regional climate including near-surface temperature and precipitation are predictable on interannual to decadal time scales. Despite indications that some states may provide higher predictability than others, previous studies analysing predictions typically sample a variety initial conditions. Here we assess multi-year conditional the phase El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) at prediction initialisation. We find starting with Niño or La Niña conditions exhibit skill in...
The summer climate in the Northern Hemisphere during recent decades has shown distinct trend patterns, with warming hotspots that spatially match ridges of a circumpolar atmospheric wave pattern. drivers behind this wave-like and pattern are not yet well understood. On one hand, CMIP6 multi-model ensemble mean presents high degree spatial correlation over some regions but at very small magnitude relative to observations. When considering individual single-model ensembles, however, we find:...
This study investigates the co-production and science communication efforts surrounding use of storm-resolving Earth system models (SR-ESMs) to support renewable energy transition. The were developed under Horizon Europe EU-funded project Next Generation System Models (NextGEMS) in course 3,5 years. By engaging participatory workshops with stakeholders from sector—including policymakers, providers, civil society—we co-created scenario storylines that integrate...
Abstract. Hot-dry compound extremes have recently gained increasing attention due to their potential impacts on environments and societies. For these reasons, assessing climate predictions is essential providing reliable information such extremes. However, despite several studies focusing in the past projections, little known a multi-annual timescale. At this regard, decadal been produced provide useful for specific Thus, we evaluate ability of CMIP6 multi-model hindcast predicting hot-dry...
Abstract. Near-term projections of climate change are subject to substantial uncertainty from internal variability. Here we present an approach reduce this by sub-selecting those ensemble members that more closely resemble observed patterns ocean temperature variability immediately prior a certain start date. This constraint aligns the and simulated phases is conceptually similar initialization in seasonal decadal predictions. We apply large multi-model projection ensembles Coupled Model...
Abstract Hot, cold and dry meteorological extremes are often linked with severe impacts on the public health, agricultural, energy environmental sectors. Skillful predictions of such could therefore enable stakeholders to better plan adapt future these events. The intensity, duration frequency affected by anthropogenic climate change modulated different modes variability. Here, we use a large multi-model ensemble from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) constrain...
Climate services that rely on the provision of climate forecasts at sub-seasonal, seasonal or decadal time scales (S2S2D) are widely exploited these days. To make them helpful for decision-making, state-of-the-art forecast model outputs tailored to user needs. The conjunction scientific knowledge and exploration fulfil users' needs determines post-processing workflow, from selecting datasets visualising product. Consequently, scientists need perform different combinations possible...
Abstract. Despite the wealth of existing climate forecast data, only a small part is effectively exploited for sectoral applications. A major cause this lack integrated tools that allow translation data into useful and skillful information. This barrier addressed through development an R package. Climate Services Toolbox (CSTools) easy-to-use toolbox designed built to assess improve quality forecasts seasonal multi-annual scales. The package contains process-based, state-of-the-art methods...
Abstract. Despite the wealth of existing climate forecast data, only a small part is effectively exploited for sectoral applications. A major cause this lack integrated tools that allow translation data into useful and skilful information. This barrier addressed through development an R package. CSTools easy-to-use toolbox designed built to assess improve quality forecasts seasonal multi–annual scales. The package contains process-based state-of-the-art methods calibration, bias correction,...
Statistical downscaling is a technique that allows to obtain high-resolution climate information from the coarse-resolution Global Climate Model (GCM) outputs through long-term relationship between GCM output and reference dataset such as in-situ observations. The key benefit of employing statistical (SD) methods over dynamical approaches their significantly less computational costs. cost-effectiveness these enables processing large hindcasts, including multi-model systems with numerous...
We investigate the representation of compound hot-dry events in decadal predictions and their relationship with univariate hot dry components. use a CMIP6 multi-model ensemble (MME) 125 members from Decadal Climate Prediction Project (DCPP) hindcast simulations compare it different observational references. Our analysis focuses on first five lead years simulations, initialised every year 1960 to 2014. analyse skill predicting hot, ensemble. Specifically, we select days above 90th percentile...
We investigate the representation of hot-dry compound extremes in decadal predictions and their correlations with corresponding univariate extremes. use a multi-model ensemble (MME) 125 members from CMIP6 Decadal Climate Prediction Project (DCPP) hindcast simulations compare it different observational references. Our analysis focuses on average forecast years 2 to 5, forecasts initialised every year 1960 2014. analyse skill predicting hot, dry events MME. Specifically, we select days above...
Decadal climate predictions are a source of information to anticipate the evolution system from 1 10 years ahead. Whereas both projections and decadal contain about external forcings, their main difference is that also include on phase internal variability. To achieve this, models initialised once per year with observation-based initial conditions.  This study assesses effectiveness various statistical downscaling methods applied multi-model mean near-surface air...
Nature and society are experiencing unprecedented challenges due to impacts of climate change. These compromise the security several sectors such as agriculture, biodiversity, water management, food production economy. Changes in temperature trends, precipitation regimes increased frequency extreme events change affect crop production. Besides, natural variability at annual decadal time scales also affects yields alters optimal seasons varieties. Examples that agricultural productivity...
The wine industry is one of the agri-food sectors most highly influenced by climate variability and change at different timescales. In particular, integrating reliable timely seasonal to decadal information in decision-making might help sector better manage climate-related risks such as spring frost or water restrictions. This explains recent interest having these time scales. However, some challenges that prevent users from uptake are coarse resolution model outputs lack coherence between...
Abstract Weather regimes are large‐scale atmospheric circulation states that frequently occur in the climate system with persistence and recurrence, associated occurrence of specific local weather conditions. This study evaluates representation four Euro‐Atlantic uninitialized historical forcing simulations initialized decadal predictions performed EC‐Earth3 coupled model. The positive negative phases North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO+ NAO−, respectively), Blocking, Ridge winter; Ridge, Low...
Documentation and development policy for the CSTools packageThe first key point a successful of software package is to establish set common rules best practices be followed by members involved in development.These must define aspects such as: a.How keep track progress. b.What guidelines contributions have fulfil.c. How contribute concurrently. d.How ensure generated works as expected.e. handle discussions involving multiple team.f.When generate documents.g. What tools use any above how...
Both global warming and internal climate variability modulate changes in the intensity frequency of extreme events. Anticipating such variations years advance may help minimise impact on climate-vulnerable sectors society, as well enable short-term adaptation strategies early-warning systems a changing climate. Decadal predictions are source information for multi-annual timescales. They provided by forecast similar to models used long-term projections but that have been initialised with best...
The forecast quality of multi-model seasonal-to-decadal climate predictions, as measured by metrics of, among others, accuracy and reliability, has been traditionally estimated considering time-average products for event thresholds that do not target the occurrence unusual events either monthly or seasonal duration. However, there is an increasing interest in some user communities represent extreme events. This presentation will discuss differences between traditional products, like mean...