A5020736303- Climate variability and models
- Oceanographic and Atmospheric Processes
- Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations
- Ocean Waves and Remote Sensing
- Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones Research
- Atmospheric and Environmental Gas Dynamics
- Marine and coastal ecosystems
- Geophysics and Gravity Measurements
- Arctic and Antarctic ice dynamics
- Flood Risk Assessment and Management
- Geology and Paleoclimatology Research
- Geochemistry and Elemental Analysis
- Plant Water Relations and Carbon Dynamics
- Atmospheric Ozone and Climate
- demographic modeling and climate adaptation
- Hydrology and Drought Analysis
- Hydrology and Watershed Management Studies
- Scientific Computing and Data Management
- Computational Physics and Python Applications
- Marine and environmental studies
- Environmental Policies and Emissions
- Climate change impacts on agriculture
- Coastal and Marine Dynamics
- Climate Change and Health Impacts
- Fusion materials and technologies
Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute
2014-2024
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
2002
University of Roehampton
2002
Delft University of Technology
2002
Max Planck Society
1991-1993
Max Planck Institute for Meteorology
1990-1991
FZI Research Center for Information Technology
1989
Abstract ERA‐40 is a re‐analysis of meteorological observations from September 1957 to August 2002 produced by the European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) in collaboration with many institutions. The observing system changed considerably over this period, assimilable data provided succession satellite‐borne instruments 1970s onwards, supplemented increasing numbers aircraft, ocean‐buoys and other surface platforms, but declining number radiosonde ascents since late 1980s....
Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, De Bilt, The NetherlandsMet Éireann, Dublin, IrelandEuropean Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, United KingdomDanish Copenhagen, DenmarkSwedish and Hydrological Norrköping, SwedenLisbon University, Lisbon, PortugalBarcelona Supercomputing Centre, Barcelona, SpainMétéo-France, Toulouse, FranceUniversity College IrelandStockholm Stockholm, SwedenBarcelona Spain, University of Murcia, SpainUniversity Oxford, KingdomSpanish Agency...
Abstract In this paper a detailed global climatology of wind-sea and swell parameters, based on the 45-yr European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Re-Analysis (ERA-40) wave reanalysis is presented. The spatial pattern dominance earth’s oceans, in terms field energy balance characteristics, also investigated. Statistical analysis shows that ocean strongly dominated by waves. interannual variability significant heights, how they are related to resultant height, analyzed over Pacific,...
The Argo Program has been implemented and sustained for almost two decades, as a global array of about 4000 profiling floats. provides continuous observations ocean temperature salinity versus pressure, from the sea surface to 2000 dbar. successful installation its innovative data management system arose opportunistically combination great scientific need technological innovation. Through system, fundamental physical with broad societally-valuable applications, built on cost-efficient robust...
Abstract The co-occurrence of consecutive hot and humid days during a heat wave can strongly affect human health. Here, we quantify hazard in the recent past at different levels global warming. We find that magnitude apparent temperature peak waves, such as ones observed Chicago 1995 China 2003, have been amplified by humidity. Climate model projections suggest percentage area where are humidity increases with increasing warming levels. Considering effect 1.5° 2° warming, highly populated...
Abstract. A community diagnostics and performance metrics tool for the evaluation of Earth system models (ESMs) has been developed that allows routine comparison single or multiple models, either against predecessor versions observations. The priority effort so far to target specific scientific themes focusing on selected essential climate variables (ECVs), a range known systematic biases common ESMs, such as coupled tropical variability, monsoons, Southern Ocean processes, continental dry...
Abstract In this article global estimates of 100-yr return values wind speed and significant wave height are presented. These based on the ECMWF 40-yr Re-Analysis (ERA-40) data linearly corrected using buoy data. This correction is supported by Topographic Ocean Experiment (TOPEX) altimeter estimates. The calculation peaks-over-threshold method. large amount used in study provides evidence that distributions belong to domain attraction exponential. Further, effect space time variability...
Abstract. The warming trend of the last decades is now so strong that it discernible in local temperature observations. This opens possibility to compare predicted by comprehensive climate models (GCMs), which up could not be verified directly observations on a scale, because signal-to-noise ratio was too low. observed western Europe over appears much stronger than simulated state-of-the-art GCMs. difference very unlikely due random fluctuations, either fast weather processes or decadal...
Abstract The European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) has recently finished ERA‐40, a reanalysis covering the period September 1957 to August 2002. One of products ERA‐40 consists six‐hourly global fields wave parameters, like significant height and period. These data have been generated with centre's WAM model. From these results we derived climatologies important including height, mean period, extreme heights. Particular emphasis is on variability both in space time....
Significant wave height and wind speed fields from ERA‐40 are validated against buoy, ERS‐1, Topex altimeter measurements. To do so, we propose apply a triple collocation statistical model. The model takes into account the random errors in observations results allows estimation of variances errors. We first examine case where different systems independent, but situations independence is not strictly observed also considered. show that predictions underestimate high values significant and,...
Abstract The homogeneity of the ECMWF 40-yr Re-Analysis (ERA-40) is assessed. This done by comparing ERA-40 data with results from NCEP–NCAR reanalysis and also investigating a known relationship between modeled (latent heat flux) an external (SST) quantity. direct comparison two reanalyses reveals lot inhomogeneities. They occur mainly in Southern Hemisphere before 1980. While observational density was sufficient to effectively constrain models Northern Hemisphere, it not Hemisphere. From...
Sea level rise, especially combined with possible changes in storm surges and increased river discharge resulting from climate change, poses a major threat low-lying deltas. In this study we focus on specific example of such delta: the Netherlands. To evaluate whether country's flood protection strategy is capable coping future conditions, an assessment low-probability/high-impact scenarios conducted, focusing mainly sea rise. We develop plausible high-end scenario 0.55 to 1.15 m global mean...
In the Essence project a 17‐member ensemble simulation of climate change in response to SRES A1b scenario has been carried out using ECHAM5/MPI‐OM model. The relatively large size makes it possible accurately investigate changes extreme values variables. Here we focus on annual‐maximum 2m‐temperature and fit Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution simulated development parameters this distribution. Over most land areas both location scale parameter increase. Consequently 100‐year return...
We use a very high resolution global climate model (~25 km grid size) with prescribed sea surface temperatures to show that greenhouse warming enhances the occurrence of hurricane‐force (> 32.6 m s –1 ) storms over western Europe during early autumn (August–October), majority which originate as tropical cyclone. The rise in Atlantic extends eastward breeding ground cyclones, yielding more frequent and intense hurricanes following pathways directed toward Europe. En route they transform...
Abstract Wind-generated waves at the sea surface are of outstanding importance for both their practical relevance in many aspects, such as coastal erosion, protection, or safety navigation, and scientific modifying fluxes air–sea interface. So far, long-term changes ocean wave climate have been studied mostly from a regional perspective with global dynamical studies emerging only recently. Here study is presented, which model [Wave Ocean Model (WAM)] driven by atmospheric forcing (ECHAM5)...
Abstract. The height of storm surges is extremely important for a low-lying country like Netherlands. By law, part the coastal defence system has to withstand water level that on average occurs only once every 10 000 years. question then arises whether and how climate change affects heights extreme surges. Published research points small changes. However, due limited amount data available results are usually relatively frequent extremes annual 99%-ile. We here report from 17-member ensemble...
The probabilities of the occurrence extreme dry/wet years and seasons in Europe are estimated by using two ways Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI SPI‐GEV) Nonstationary (SnsPI). latter is defined as SPI fitting precipitation data with a nonstationary Gamma distribution order to model time dependence under climate change. Bias‐corrected daily outputs from five different regional models (RCMs) provided ENSEMBLES project used. RCMs selected so represent main statistical properties whole set...
Abstract. Dissolved manganese (Mn) is a biologically essential element. Moreover, its oxidised form involved in removing itself and several other trace elements from ocean waters. Here we report the longest thus far (17 500 km length) full-depth section of dissolved Mn west Atlantic Ocean, comprising 1320 data values high accuracy. This GA02 transect that part GEOTRACES programme, which aims to understand element distributions. The goal this study combine these new observations with new,...
This paper describes the comparison of wind speed and significant wave height data from several reanalyses. The are assessed against time-averaged altimeter buoy measurements. comparisons between datasets made in terms description short-scale features, monthly means, long-scale features— namely trends variability. results show that although quality their with observations differs, most features equally present all datasets. differences larger than those datasets; moreover, exist even when...
Abstract A new nonparametric method to correct model data is proposed. At any given point in space and time the correction determined from “analogs” a learning dataset. The dataset contains simultaneous observations. applied significant wave height of 45-yr European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Re-Analysis (ERA-40). Comparison corrected with measurements situ buoy global altimeter shows clear improvements bias, scatter, quantiles whole range values. Temporal inhomogeneities are...