A5019899141- Climate variability and models
- Arctic and Antarctic ice dynamics
- Climate change and permafrost
- Cryospheric studies and observations
- Atmospheric and Environmental Gas Dynamics
- Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations
- Hydrology and Drought Analysis
- Geophysics and Gravity Measurements
- Geological Studies and Exploration
- Plant Water Relations and Carbon Dynamics
- Hydrology and Watershed Management Studies
- Polar Research and Ecology
- Methane Hydrates and Related Phenomena
- Criminal Law and Evidence
- Educational Practices and Sociocultural Research
- Energy Load and Power Forecasting
- Comparative and International Law Studies
- Dutch Social and Cultural Studies
- Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones Research
- Geology and Paleoclimatology Research
- Context-Aware Activity Recognition Systems
- Oceanographic and Atmospheric Processes
- Arctic and Russian Policy Studies
- Health Education and Validation
- Global Energy and Sustainability Research
Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute
2015-2025
Wageningen University & Research
2019-2023
Delft University of Technology
2019
University of Groningen
2019
National Institute of Meteorology
2016
The Arctic region is projected to experience amplified warming as well strongly increasing precipitation rates. Equally important trends in the mean climate are changes interannual variability, but fluctuations highly uncertain and associated processes unknown. Here, we use various state-of-the-art global model simulations show that variability of will likely increase markedly (up 40% over 21st century), especially summer. This can be attributed increased poleward atmospheric moisture...
Ongoing and projected greenhouse warming clearly manifests itself in the Arctic regions, which warm faster than any other part of world. One key features amplified concerns winter (AWW), exceeds summer by at least a factor 4. Here we use observation-driven reanalyses state-of-the-art climate models variety standardised change simulations to show that AWW is strongly linked sea ice retreat through associated release surplus ocean heat gained ice-albedo feedback (~25%) infrared radiation...
We present the first results of TIPMIP ESM experiments using post-CMIP6 model EC-Earth3-ESM. The main objective is to study risks and consequences potential tipping events in Earth system, as well reversibility triggered - a function e.g., magnitudes durations different global warming levels (GWLs) before cooling climate back lower GWLs pre-industrial climate.Following protocol, we performed set idealized emission-driven simulations, including 1) ramp-up runs with constant CO2 emission that...
There is increasing evidence that atmospheric rivers (ARs) drive extreme precipitation and melt events across Antarctica these impacts are more accurately captured in high-resolution models. However, a comprehensive evaluation of AR impacts, comparing the performance models with varying resolutions physics multiple events, has not yet been conducted. In this study, we simulate four recent using regional climate model HCLIM43 its ALADIN (11 km) AROME km 2.5 configurations, as well ERA5 (31...
Abstract. Global climate models project widespread decreases in soil moisture over large parts of Europe. This paper investigates the impact model resolution on magnitude and seasonality future drying central-western We use general circulation EC-Earth to study two 30-year periods representative start end 21st century under low-to-moderate greenhouse gas forcing (RCP4.5). In our area, Europe, at high spatial (∼25 km) is more severe starts earlier season than standard (∼112 km). Here, changes...
Enhanced ocean heat transport into the Arctic is linked to stronger future warming and polar amplification. To quantify impact of on climate, it imperative understand how its magnitude associated mechanisms change in other climate states. This paper therefore assesses at $$70^{\circ }\hbox {N}$$ for climates forced with a broad range carbon dioxide concentration levels, ranging from one-fourth four times modern values. We focused transports through entrances (Bering Strait, Canadian...
Droughts can be studied from an atmospheric perspective by analysing large-scale dynamics and thermodynamics, a hydrological interaction of precipitation, evaporation, soil moisture temperature at the land-surface. Here, we study it both perspectives, assess (evaporative) sources precipitation in Rhine basin during exceptionally dry summers 2003 2018. We use ERA5 re-analysis data (1979–2018) Eulerian tracking model WAM-2layers order to determine basin. During average summer, these...
ABSTRACT Long-term climate variations have the potential to amplify or dampen (human-induced) trends in temperature. Understanding natural variability is therefore of vital importance, especially since itself may change with a changing climate. Here, we quantify magnitude and other characteristics interannual decadal Arctic temperature their dependence on state. Moreover, identify processes responsible for state dependency variations, using five quasi-equilibrium simulations state-of-the-art...
Abstract Natural decadal variability of surface air temperature might obscure Arctic trends induced by anthropogenic forcing. It is therefore imperative to know how (ADV) will change as the climate warms. In this study, we evaluate ADV characteristics in three equilibrium climates with present‐day, double, and quadrupled atmospheric CO 2 The dominant region variability, which located over Barents Greenland Sea at present, shifts central Siberian regions maximum sea ice cover occurs doubling...
Abstract Arctic precipitation is projected to increase more rapidly than the global mean in warming climates. However, warming‐induced changes variability of precipitation, which are related surface evaporation and poleward moisture transport (PMT), currently largely unknown. This study compares different quasi‐equilibrium climates simulated by a climate model (EC‐Earth) studies underlying mechanisms. Five simulations 400 years length forced with broad range CO 2 concentrations (0.25, 0.5,...
Abstract Simulation of past climate is an important tool for the validation models. The comparison with observed daily values allows us to assess reliability their projections on climatic extremes in a future climate. frequency and amplitude extreme events are fundamental aspects that simulations need reproduce as they have high impacts economy society. ability simulate them will help policy makers taking better measures face change. This work aims at evaluating how six models within High...
Abstract. Antarctic mass loss is the largest contributor to uncertainties in sea level projections on centennial time scales. In this study we aim constrain future of contribution dynamics by using ice discharge observations. The Antarctica's computed with ocean thermal forcing from 14 Earth system models (ESMs) and linear response functions (RFs) 16 sheet for 3 shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) scenarios. New compared previous studies, basal melt sensitivities temperature changes were...
Abstract Century-scale global near-surface temperature trends in response to rising greenhouse gas concentrations climate models vary by almost a factor of 2, with greatest intermodel spread the Arctic region where sea ice is key component. Three factors contribute spread: 1) model formulation, 2) control state, and 3) internal variability. This study focuses on influence warming, using idealized 1% yr−1 CO2 increase simulations 33 state-of-the-art models, combining ice–temperature relations...
Abstract Future changes in interannual variability (IAV) of Arctic climate indicators such as sea ice and precipitation are still fairly uncertain. Alongside global warming-induced means, a thorough understanding IAV is needed to more accurately predict variability, distinguish trends natural well reduce uncertainty around the likelihood extreme events. In this study we rank select CMIP6 models based on their ability replicate observations, quantify simulated (1981–2100) surface air...
<p>The comparison of simulated climate with observed daily values allows to assess their reliability and the soundness projections on future. Frequency amplitude extreme events are fundamental aspects that simulations need reproduce. In this work six models developed within High Resolution Model Intercomparison Project compared over Europe homogenized version observational E-OBS gridded dataset. This is done by comparing averages, extremes trends summer maximum temperature...
<p>The Arctic region is projected to experience amplified warming as well strongly increasing precipitation rates. Equally important trends in the mean climate are changes interannual variability, but fluctuations highly uncertain and associated processes unknown. Here we use various state-of-the-art global model simulations show that variability of will likely increase markedly (up 40% over 21<sup>st</sup> century), especially summer. This can be...
Abstract Alongside mean increases in poleward moisture transport (PMT) to the Arctic, most climate models also project a linear increase interannual variability (IAV) with future warming. It is still uncertain what extent atmospheric rivers (ARs) contribute projected IAV of PMT. We analyzed large‐ensemble simulations (a) explore link between PMT and ARs present‐day (PD) two warmer climates (+2 +3°C compared pre‐industrial global temperature), (b) assess dynamic contribution changes ARs, (c)...
This paper provides an early career researchers (ECRs) perspective on major challenges and opportunities that arise in the study understanding of, provision of regional information for Climate, Weather Hydrological (CWH) extreme events. emerged from discussions three-day Young Earth System Scientists - Hydrologic Society (YESS-YHS) workshop, which was conjointly held with Global Energy Water Exchanges (GEWEX) Open Science Conference. In this we discuss three possible ways forward field: a...
Abstract. Antarctic mass loss is the largest contributor to uncertainties in sea level projections on centennial timescales. In this study contribution of Antarctica’s ice discharge future changes computed with ocean thermal forcing from 14 earth system models and linear response functions 16 sheet for three greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Different than previous studies, basal melt was calibrated observed rather itself an iterative approach. For each model combination, a quadratic...
Abstract. Global climate models project an intensification of future soil moisture droughts over large parts Europe. This paper investigates the impact model resolution on severity and seasonal cycle European droughts. We use a 6-member ensemble general circulation EC-Earth to study two periods representative start end 21st century under low-to-moderate greenhouse gas forcing (RCP4.5). In our area, central-western Europe, at high spatial (~ 25 km) are more severe earlier in season than...
Abstract. The subsurface ocean around Antarctica is one of the primary drivers mass loss from Antarctic ice sheet through basal melting shelves. resultant meltwater flux into surrounding can, mainly reduced vertical mixing, further enhance warming, inducing a positive feedback that amplifies and sea-level rise. Here, we quantify this between release warming using Linear Response Functions in Earth System Model EC-Earth3. Increased five individual regions found to unambiguously warm Southern...