A5083626111- Climate variability and models
- Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations
- Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones Research
- Atmospheric and Environmental Gas Dynamics
- Atmospheric Ozone and Climate
- Advanced MRI Techniques and Applications
- Oceanographic and Atmospheric Processes
- Cryospheric studies and observations
- Ocean Waves and Remote Sensing
- Medical Imaging Techniques and Applications
- Atmospheric chemistry and aerosols
- MRI in cancer diagnosis
- Radiomics and Machine Learning in Medical Imaging
- Geology and Paleoclimatology Research
- Climate change impacts on agriculture
- Cancer, Hypoxia, and Metabolism
- Geophysics and Gravity Measurements
- Hydrocarbon exploration and reservoir analysis
- Atomic and Subatomic Physics Research
- Ionosphere and magnetosphere dynamics
- Precipitation Measurement and Analysis
- Plant and animal studies
- Coastal and Marine Dynamics
- Atmospheric aerosols and clouds
- Ecology and Vegetation Dynamics Studies
Meteorological Research Institute
2016-2025
Japan Meteorological Agency
2013-2024
National Institute of Meteorology
2016
Food Research Institute
2010
National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology
2006-2008
Kyoto University
2001-2002
Abstract. Robust projections and predictions of climate variability change, particularly at regional scales, rely on the driving processes being represented with fidelity in model simulations. The role enhanced horizontal resolution improved process representation all components system is growing interest, as some recent simulations suggest both possibility significant changes large-scale aspects circulation well improvements small-scale extremes. However, such high-resolution global...
A new global climate model, MRI-CGCM3, has been developed at the Meteorological Research Institute (MRI). This model is an overall upgrade of MRI's former MRI-CGCM2 series. MRI-CGCM3 composed atmosphere-land, aerosol, and ocean-ice models, a subset earth system MRI-ESM1. Atmospheric component MRI-AGCM3 interactively coupled with aerosol to represent direct indirect effects aerosols cloud microphysics scheme. Basic experiments for pre-industrial control, historical sensitivity are performed...
The new Meteorological Research Institute Earth System Model version 2.0 (MRI-ESM2.0) has been developed based on previous models, MRI-CGCM3 and MRI-ESM1, which participated in the fifth phase of Coupled Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). These models underwent numerous improvements meant for highly accurate climate reproducibility. This paper describes model formulation updates evaluates basic performance its physical components. nominal horizontal resolutions 100 km atmosphere ocean...
Possible changes in the tropical cyclones a future, greenhouse-warmed climate are investigated using 20 km-mesh, high-resolution, global atmospheric model of MRI/JMA, with analyses focused on evaluation frequency and wind intensity. Two types 10-year experiments conducted. One is present-day experiment, other forcing higher sea surface temperature increased greenhouse-gas concentration. A comparison suggests that cyclone warm-climate experiment globally reduced by about 30% (but North...
A new version of the atmospheric general circulation model Meteorological Research Institute (MRI), with a horizontal grid size about 20 km, has been developed. The previous 20-km model, MRIAGCM3.1, which was developed from an operational numerical weather-prediction provided information on possible climate change induced by global warming, including future changes in tropical cyclones, East Asian monsoon, extreme events, and blockings. For version, MRI-AGCM3.2, we have introduced various...
Abstract An unprecedentedly large ensemble of climate simulations with a 60-km atmospheric general circulation model and dynamical downscaling 20-km regional has been performed to obtain probabilistic future projections low-frequency local-scale events. The the latter half twentieth century, 4 K warmer than preindustrial climate, century without historical trends associated anthropogenic effect are each simulated for more 5,000 years. From simulations, changes in extreme events available...
New versions of the high-resolution 20- and 60-km-mesh Meteorological Research Institute (MRI) atmospheric general circulation models (MRI-AGCM version 3.2) have been developed used to investigate potential future changes in tropical cyclone (TC) activity. Compared with previous (version 3.1), 3.2 yields a more realistic simulation present-day (1979–2003) global distribution TCs. Moreover, 20-km-mesh model is able simulate extremely intense TCs (categories 4 5), which first time climate has...
Extreme variability of the winter‐ and spring‐time stratospheric polar vortex has been shown to affect extratropical tropospheric weather. Therefore, reducing forecast error may be one way improve skill weather forecasts. In this review, basis for idea is examined. A range studies different extreme events shows that they can skilfully forecasted beyond 5 days into sub‐seasonal (0–30 days) in some cases. Separate show typical errors forecasting a event alter by 5–7% extratropics on...
Future changes in tropical cyclone properties are an important component of climate change impacts and risk for many midlatitude countries. In this study we assess the performance a multimodel ensemble models, at resolutions ranging from 250 to 25 km. We use common experimental design including both atmosphere-only coupled simulations run over period 1950-2050, with two tracking algorithms applied uniformly across models. There overall improvements frequency, spatial distribution, intensity...
Abstract Projected future changes in global tropical cyclone (TC) activity are assessed using 5,000 year scale ensemble simulations for both current and 4 K surface warming climates with a 60 km atmospheric model. The number of TCs decreases by 33% the projection. Although geographical TC occurrences decrease generally, they increase central eastern parts extra North Pacific. Meanwhile, very intense (category 5) over broader area including south Japan Madagascar. category 5 significantly...
Slow-moving tropical cyclones (TCs) can cause heavy rain because of their duration influence. Combined with expected increase in rates associated TCs a warmer climate, there is growing interest TC translation speed the past and future. Here we present that slowdown trend not simulated for period 1951-2011 based on historical model simulations. We also find annual-mean could under global warming. Although previous studies show large uncertainties future projections characteristics, our...
A global atmospheric general circulation model, with the horizontal grid size of about 20 km, has been developed, making use Earth Simulator, fastest computer available at present for meteorological applications. We examine model's performance simulating present-day climate from small scale through by time integrations over 10 years, using a climatological sea surface temperature.Global distributions seasonal mean precipitation, air temperature, geopotential height, zonal-mean wind and...
Uncertainties in projected future changes tropical cyclone (TC) activity are investigated using (2075–2099) ensemble projections of global warming under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) A1B scenario. Twelve experiments performed three different cumulus convection schemes and four assumptions for prescribed sea surface temperatures (SSTs). All consistently project significant reductions hemispheric TC genesis numbers as well frequency occurrence (TCF) (TGF) western North...
Climate changes for the end of 21st century projected by Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) models are classified into three clusters a cluster analysis annual-mean tropical sea surface temperature (SST) change patterns. The SST patterns featured zonal gradient in equatorial Pacific and inter-hemispheric contrast warming. Precipitation atmospheric circulation responses composited clusters, their relationships to examined. increase is larger where warming than surroundings...
Future change in the frequency of atmospheric blocking is investigated through present‐day (1979–2003) and future (2075–2099) simulations using 20‐, 60‐, 120‐, 180‐km‐mesh general circulation models (AGCMs) under Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Reports Emission Scenarios A1B emission scenario, focusing Northern Hemisphere winter (December–February). The results climate reveal that AGCM with highest horizontal resolution required to accurately simulate Euro‐Atlantic...
気象研究所(MRI)の新しい地球システムモデルMRI-ESM1を用いて、1850年から2100年までの大気化学、及び炭素循環を含む統合的な気候シミュレーションを行った。MRI-ESM1は、大気海洋結合モデルMRI-CGCM3の拡張版として開発されたモデルであり、拡張部分の化学的・生物地球化学的過程以外の力学的・熱力学的過程は、両モデルで同設定とした。計算負荷の大きい化学過程を扱う大気化学モデルを低解像度(280km)に設定して、MRI-ESM1の大気モデル部分はMRI-CGCM3と同じ120kmとした。基準実験において、地上気温、放射収支、及び微量気体(二酸化炭素(CO2)とオゾン)濃度の気候ドリフトは十分に小さいことを確認した。MRI-CGCM3による基準実験と比較して、全球平均地上気温が若干高いが、これは対流圏のオゾン濃度がやや高いためであった。次に、歴史実験を行いモデル性能を検証した。このモデルは地上気温と微量気体濃度の観測された歴史的変化を概ね再現出来ていた。ただし、地上気温の昇温とCO2濃度の増加はともに過少評価であり、これらの過少評価は土壌呼吸を通した正のフィードバッ...
The locally accumulated damage by tropical cyclones (TCs) can intensify substantially when these move more slowly. While some observational evidence suggests that TC motion might have slowed significantly since the mid-20th century (1), robustness of observed trend and its relation to anthropogenic warming not been firmly established (2-4). Using large-ensemble simulations directly simulate activity, we show future lead a robust slowing motion, particularly in midlatitudes. slowdown there is...
Abstract Major sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs), vortex formation, and final breakdown dates are key highlight points of the polar vortex. These phenomena relevant for stratosphere‐troposphere coupling, which explains interest in understanding their future changes. However, up to now, there is not a clear consensus on projected changes robust, particularly Northern Hemisphere, possibly due short data record or relatively moderate CO 2 forcing. The new simulations performed under Coupled...
Abstract A near‐future, 2‐K warming climate simulation comprising over 3,000 years of ensemble simulations was performed using 60‐km global and 20‐km regional atmospheric models. Even in the +2‐K climate, indices extreme precipitation dryness increased significantly extratropics compared with historical climate. Mean increases rainy season decreases dry season, indicating that seasonal range becomes amplified warming. The intensification from +2 to +4 K also robust mean for climatological...
This study examines long-term ensemble projections for historical and future climate conditions over 5,000 years using an atmospheric global circulation model. The condition is assumed as a constant +4K in the mean temperature from before Industrial Revolution (c.a. 1850), perturbed by observed sea surface (SST) error. A set of experiments assesses impact low probability phenomena, such tropical cyclones storm surge comparison with conventional time-slice experiments. Future changes will be...
A global warming projection experiment was conducted on the Earth Simulator using a very high horizontal resolution atmospheric general circulation model, with 20-km grid size (the model). Such in climate model is unprecedented for projection. Experiments were by adopting time-slice method, which future changes sea surface temperature (SST) predicted an atmosphere-ocean (AOGCM) called MRI-CGCM2.3. The A1B emission scenario, proposed Intergovernmental Panel Climate Change (IPCC), assumed...
This study focuses on projecting future changes in mean and extreme precipitation Asia, discusses their uncertainties. Time‐slice experiments using a 20‐km‐mesh atmospheric general circulation (AGCM) were performed both the present‐day (1979–2003) (2075–2099). To assess uncertainty of projections, 12 ensemble projections (i.e., combination 3 different cumulus schemes 4 sea surface temperature (SST) change patterns) conducted 60‐km‐mesh AGCMs. For simulations, models successfully reproduced...
Abstract The authors have developed a new spectral cumulus parameterization scheme that explicitly considers an ensemble of multiple convective updrafts by interpolating in-cloud variables between two with large and small entrainment rates. This has the advantages in entraining detraining are calculated detail layer as Tiedtke scheme, spectrum different heights due to difference rates is represented, Arakawa–Schubert scheme. A conservative monotonic semi-Lagrangian used for calculation...