A5055085319- Climate variability and models
- Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones Research
- Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations
- Ocean Waves and Remote Sensing
- Oceanographic and Atmospheric Processes
- Atmospheric and Environmental Gas Dynamics
- Geophysics and Gravity Measurements
- Climate change impacts on agriculture
- Atmospheric Ozone and Climate
- Hydrology and Watershed Management Studies
- Precipitation Measurement and Analysis
- Atmospheric aerosols and clouds
- Concrete and Cement Materials Research
- Innovative concrete reinforcement materials
- Ionosphere and magnetosphere dynamics
- Arctic and Antarctic ice dynamics
- Plant Water Relations and Carbon Dynamics
- Concrete Properties and Behavior
- Inertial Sensor and Navigation
- Disaster Management and Resilience
- Nonlinear Dynamics and Pattern Formation
- MicroRNA in disease regulation
- Cryospheric studies and observations
- Hydrology and Drought Analysis
- Hydrological Forecasting Using AI
Meteorological Research Institute
2009-2021
Japan Meteorological Agency
2007-2021
Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology
2009-2014
Institute for Global Environmental Strategies
2000
University of Miami
2000
National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Resilience
1995-2000
Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology
2000
Florida State University
1986
<section class="abstract"><h2 class="abstractTitle text-title my-1" id="d13860437e169">Abstract</h2> Model projections of tropical cyclone (TC) activity response to anthropogenic warming in climate models are assessed. Observations, theory, and models, with increasing robustness, indicate rising global TC risk for some metrics that projected impact multiple regions. A 2°C is as follows. 1) The most confident TC-related projection sea level rise accompanying the will lead higher storm...
Recent research has strengthened the understanding of links between climate and tropical cyclones (TCs) on various timescales. Geological records past climates have shown century‐long variations in TC numbers. While no significant trends been identified Atlantic since late 19th century, observed numbers intensities occurred this basin over few decades, other basins are increasingly being identified. However, causes these is incomplete, confidence continues to be hampered by a lack consistent...
An assessment was made of whether detectable changes in tropical cyclone (TC) activity are identifiable observations and any can be attributed to anthropogenic climate change. Overall, historical data suggest TC some regions associated with track changes, while quality quantity issues create greater challenges for analyses based on intensity frequency. A number specific published conclusions (case studies) about possible influence TCs were assessed using the conventional approach...
A new version of the atmospheric general circulation model Meteorological Research Institute (MRI), with a horizontal grid size about 20 km, has been developed. The previous 20-km model, MRIAGCM3.1, which was developed from an operational numerical weather-prediction provided information on possible climate change induced by global warming, including future changes in tropical cyclones, East Asian monsoon, extreme events, and blockings. For version, MRI-AGCM3.2, we have introduced various...
New versions of the high-resolution 20- and 60-km-mesh Meteorological Research Institute (MRI) atmospheric general circulation models (MRI-AGCM version 3.2) have been developed used to investigate potential future changes in tropical cyclone (TC) activity. Compared with previous (version 3.1), 3.2 yields a more realistic simulation present-day (1979–2003) global distribution TCs. Moreover, 20-km-mesh model is able simulate extremely intense TCs (categories 4 5), which first time climate has...
Abstract Projected future changes in global tropical cyclone (TC) activity are assessed using 5,000 year scale ensemble simulations for both current and 4 K surface warming climates with a 60 km atmospheric model. The number of TCs decreases by 33% the projection. Although geographical TC occurrences decrease generally, they increase central eastern parts extra North Pacific. Meanwhile, very intense (category 5) over broader area including south Japan Madagascar. category 5 significantly...
The influence of the global warming on tropical cyclones has been examined using a high resolution AGCM. Two ten-year integrations were performed with JMA model at T106 horizontal resolution. For control experiment, observed SST for period 1979-1988 is prescribed, while doubling CO2 (2 × CO2) anomaly due to estimated from coupled transient experiment (Tokioka et al. 1995) added used in experiment. results experiments show that significant reduction frequency possible response greenhouse...
In this paper the authors present results of diagnostic analysis observations and complementary experiments with a simple numerical model that enable them to synthesize morphology dynamics “breaks” in Indian summer monsoon (ISM). Almost one week ahead onset break spell over India, monotonically decreasing trend convective activity is found occur Bay Bengal response steady eastward spreading dry convectively stable anomalies from equatorial Ocean. A major intensification seen about 2–3 days...
To investigate the possible impacts of enhanced greenhouse gases and sulfate aerosols on extratropical cyclone activity, two 20-yr time-slice experiments—the control run global warming run—are performed with a high-resolution AGCM (T106) Japan Meteorological Agency. In run, atmosphere is forced by observed SST sea ice 1979–98 present-day CO2 aerosol concentrations. plus monthly mean anomalies at about year 2050 obtained from transient climate change experiment Geophysical Fluid Dynamics...
A new version of a global coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (MRI-CGCM2) has been developed at the Meteorological Research Institute (MRI). The can be used to explore climate change associated with anthropogenic forcings. We aimed reduce drawbacks former (MRI-CGCM1, Tokioka. et. al., 1996) and achieve more realistic climatic mean variability predict changes greater accuracy. In preliminary analysis control run, showed generally good performance in reproducing (including...
Changes in future weather extremes are projected using a global atmospheric general circulation model and non-hydrostatic regional climate under the warming environment near (2030s) at end of 21st century. The 20-km mesh can simulate tropical cyclones more realistically their strength, structure geographical distribution together with associated heavy rainfall strong surface winds as compared lower resolution models. According to SRES A1B scenario, it is that century there will be 40%∼60%...
The effect of model resolution on projected climatological features tropical cyclones (TCs) was investigated via 25-year present-day and future global warming projections using the Japan Meteorological Agency/Meteorological Research Institute Atmospheric General Circulation Model with four resolutions ranging from TL95 (180-km mesh) to TL959 (20-km mesh). finest (TL959) showed highest skills in terms TC intensity interannual seasonal variations genesis number. Resolutions TL319 (60-km finer...
Abstract Results from a 20-yr simulation of high-resolution AGCM forced with climatological SST, along simplified model experiments and supplementary data diagnostics, are used to investigate internal feedbacks arising monsoon–midlatitude interactions during droughts in the Indian summer monsoon. The not only shows fairly realistic mean monsoon rainfall distribution large-scale circulation features but also exhibits remarkable interannual variations precipitation over subcontinent, run...
A 20-year integration by the nonhydrostatic icosahedral atmospheric model (NICAM) with a 14 km mesh was conducted for first time to obtain climatological mean and diurnal interannual variability of simulated atmosphere. Clouds were explicitly calculated using cloud microphysics scheme without cumulus convection scheme. The simulation performed under intercomparison project-type conditions, except that sea surface temperature nudged toward observed historical values slab ocean model. results...
Future changes in tropical cyclone (TC) activity and structure are investigated using the outputs of a 14-km mesh climate simulation. A set 30-yr simulations was performed under present-day warmer conditions nonhydrostatic icosahedral atmospheric model with explicitly calculated convection. The projected that global frequency TCs is reduced by 22.7%, ratio intense increased 6.6%, precipitation rate within 100 km TC center 11.8% conditions. These tendencies consistent previous studies...
Influences of sea surface temperature (SST) spatial patterns and cumulus parameterizations on tropical cyclone (TC) frequency, in the context global warming impacts, are investigated using an atmospheric general circulation model at T106 horizontal resolution. Simulated TCs this high-resolution categorized into storms (TSs) depressions (TDs). Model TSs defined as with maximum wind speed more than, or equal to 16 m s−1, for experiments Arakawa-Schubert parameterization. Another threshold 14...
In this report, we present the results from our recent experiments using 20 km-mesh and 60 atmospheric general circulation models with prescribed sea surface temperatures (SST). The of consistently show a reduction in global tropical cyclone frequency due to warming. By different resolution SST changes, find that warming is very robust feature. contrast, regional change varies lot among distribution. We sensitive relative This suggests strongly affected by convective activity which dominated...
New and previous versions of the high-resolution 20- 60-km-mesh Meteorological Research Institute atmospheric general circulation models are used to investigate potential future changes in tropical cyclone (TC) activity North Indian Ocean (NIO). Fifteen ensemble experiments performed under International Panel on Climate Change A1B scenario. Most (2075–2099) do not project significant basin-scale TC genesis number; however, they commonly show a substantial increase (by 46 %) frequency over...
Abstract. The Nonhydrostatic ICosahedral Atmospheric Model (NICAM), a global model with an icosahedral grid system, has been under development for nearly two decades. This paper describes NICAM16-S, the latest stable version of NICAM (NICAM.16), modified Coupled Intercomparison Project Phase 6, High Resolution (HighResMIP). Major updates NICAM.12, previous used climate simulations, included cloud microphysics scheme and land surface model, introduction natural anthropogenic aerosols...
Century-long observations enable us to uncover an interesting out-of-phase variability between the first principal component of Baiu rainfall over Japanese archipelago and monsoon India during early summer season (June July). The signatures this contemporaneous relationship are clearly evident from analysis long-period multi-source climate datasets. One findings suggest that circulation near subtropical region west Pacific Ocean tends vary in-phase with Indian subcontinent, so intensified...
Principal component analysis is applied to the cyclone density over North Atlantic in winter analyzed with an objective identification and tracking algorithm by using 6-h National Centers for Environmental Prediction reanalysis data from 1958 1998. Regressions of density, deepening rate, moving speed, central pressure gradient first principal show that activity northern exhibits a significant intensifying trend along decadal timescale oscillation during past 40 yr. All these variables vary...