A5052109840- Climate variability and models
- Atmospheric Ozone and Climate
- Atmospheric and Environmental Gas Dynamics
- Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations
- Atmospheric chemistry and aerosols
- Ionosphere and magnetosphere dynamics
- Arctic and Antarctic ice dynamics
- Case Reports on Hematomas
- Cryospheric studies and observations
- Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones Research
- Climate Change Policy and Economics
- Plant Water Relations and Carbon Dynamics
- Oceanographic and Atmospheric Processes
- Solar Radiation and Photovoltaics
- Climate Change and Health Impacts
- Geophysics and Gravity Measurements
- Solar and Space Plasma Dynamics
- Astro and Planetary Science
- Climate change and permafrost
- Methane Hydrates and Related Phenomena
- Remote Sensing in Agriculture
- Ocean Acidification Effects and Responses
- Tree-ring climate responses
- Geological Studies and Exploration
- Delphi Technique in Research
Universidad Complutense de Madrid
2010-2025
Freie Universität Berlin
2013-2021
Instituto de Geociencias
2018-2019
University of Exeter
2016-2019
Oak Ridge National Laboratory
2019
Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas
2018-2019
Met Office
2018
Abstract Sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) are impressive fluid dynamical events in which large and rapid temperature increases the winter polar stratosphere ( ∼ 10–50 km) associated with a complete reversal of climatological wintertime westerly winds. SSWs caused by breaking planetary‐scale waves that propagate upwards from troposphere. During an SSW, vortex breaks down, accompanied descent warming air latitudes, mirrored ascent cooling above warming. The column affect tropospheric...
Abstract The stratosphere can have a significant impact on winter surface weather subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescales. This study evaluates the ability of current operational S2S prediction systems capture two important links between and troposphere: (1) changes in probabilistic skill extratropical by precursors tropics troposphere (2) predictability extratropics after stratospheric weak strong vortex events. Probabilistic exists for events when including tropospheric over North Pacific...
Abstract The stratosphere has been identified as an important source of predictability for a range processes on subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) time scales. Knowledge about S2S within the is however still limited. This study evaluates what extent in extratropical exists hindcasts operational prediction systems database. found exhibit extended compared troposphere. Prediction with higher stratospheric skill tend also analysis includes assessment events, including early and midwinter sudden...
It is well established that El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) impacts the North Atlantic–European (NAE) climate, with strongest influence in winter. In late winter, ENSO signal travels via both tropospheric and stratospheric pathways to NAE sector often projects onto Atlantic Oscillation. However, this does not strengthen gradually during some studies have suggested different between early winter teleconnections involved subperiod are understood. study, we investigate teleconnection...
Abstract Major sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs), vortex formation, and final breakdown dates are key highlight points of the polar vortex. These phenomena relevant for stratosphere‐troposphere coupling, which explains interest in understanding their future changes. However, up to now, there is not a clear consensus on projected changes robust, particularly Northern Hemisphere, possibly due short data record or relatively moderate CO 2 forcing. The new simulations performed under Coupled...
Abstract In recent decades, there has been a growing interest in the study of possible active role stratosphere on tropospheric climate. However, most studies have focused this connection wintertime. This paper deals with relationship between variations timing stratospheric final warmings (SFWs, observed springtime) and monthly averaged changes Euro-Atlantic On basis date which SFW occurs, two sets years selected for period (1958–2002): “early years” “late years,” reflecting very early or...
[1] In January 2009 and 2010, two major stratospheric warmings (MSWs) took place in the boreal polar stratosphere. Both MSWs were preceded by nearly strongest injection of tropospheric wave activity on record since 1958 their central date was almost coincident. However, typical external factors that influence occurrence (the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation, sunspot cycle, or El Niño) dissimilar midwinters: favorable 2010 but unfavorable 2009. this study, driving mechanisms these different...
Abstract. Major mid-winter stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs) are the largest instance of wintertime variability in Arctic stratosphere. Because SSWs able to cause significant surface weather anomalies on intra-seasonal timescales, several previous studies have focused their potential future change, as might be induced by anthropogenic forcings. However, a wide range results been reported, from increase frequency an actual decrease. Several factors explain these contradictory results,...
Abstract The effects of Arctic sea ice loss on cold air outbreaks (CAOs) in midlatitudes remain unclear. Previous studies have defined CAOs relative to the present‐day climate, but changes CAOs, such a way, may reflect mean climate and not weather variability, society is more sensitive latter. Here we revisit this topic applying changing temperature thresholds relating conditions time. do change frequency or duration response projected loss. However, they become less severe, mainly due...
Abstract Southwestern Europe experienced extraordinary rainy and windy conditions in March 2018, leading to the end of most severe drought since 1970 at continental scale. This anomalous weather was linked a persistent negative North Atlantic Oscillation pattern. Two weeks earlier sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) took place, preceded by strongest planetary wave activity on record. In this study, we explore connection between SSW shift employing regime approach flow analogues. The timing...
Sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) are impressive fluid dynamical events in which large and rapid temperature increases the winter polar stratosphere (~0–50km) associated with a complete reversal of climatological wintertime westerly winds. SSWs fundamentally caused by breaking planetary-scale waves that propagate upwards from troposphere. During an SSW, vortex breaks down, accompanied warming air column. This descent column affects tropospheric weather, shifting jet streams, storm tracks,...
Abstract. The stratosphere can be a source of predictability for surface weather on timescales several weeks to months. However, the potential predictive skill gained from stratospheric variability limited by biases in representation processes and coupling with climate forecast systems. This study provides first systematic identification model across wide range subseasonal It is found that many systems considered exhibit warm global-mean temperature lower middle stratosphere, too strong/cold...
Abstract The North Atlantic eddy-driven jet (EDJ) is an essential component of the Euro-Atlantic atmospheric circulation. It has been typically described in terms latitude and intensity but this not enough to fully characterize its variability complex EDJ configurations. Here, we present a set daily parameters based on low-tropospheric zonal wind data for 1948–2020 period. They describe intensity, sharpness, location, edges, tilt other asymmetries EDJ, therefore dissecting structure beyond...
Abstract The mechanistic pathways connecting ocean-atmosphere variability and terrestrial productivity are well-established theoretically, but remain challenging to quantify empirically. Such quantification will greatly improve the assessment prediction of changes in carbon sequestration response dynamically induced climatic extremes. jet stream latitude (JSL) over North Atlantic-European domain provides a synthetic robust physical framework that integrates climate not accounted for by...
Abstract. Major sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) represent one of the most abrupt phenomena boreal wintertime variability, and constitute clearest example coupling between stratosphere troposphere. A good representation SSWs in climate models is required to reduce their biases uncertainties future projections variability. The ability reproduce these usually assessed with just reanalysis. However, number reanalyses has increased last decade own may affect model evaluation. Here we compare...
Abstract Springtime stratospheric final warming (SFW) variability has been suggested to be linked the tropospheric circulation, particularly over North Atlantic sector. These findings, however, are based on reanalysis data that cover a rather short period of time (1979 present). The present work aims improve understanding drivers, trends and surface impact dynamical boreal SFWs using chemistry‐climate models. We use multidecadal integrations fully coupled models Community Earth System Model...
Abstract. Two-way coupling between the stratosphere and troposphere is recognized as an important source of subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) predictability can open windows opportunity for improved forecasts. Model biases can, however, lead to a poor representation such processes; drifts in model's circulation related model biases, resolution, parameterizations have potential feed back on affect stratosphere–troposphere coupling. We introduce set diagnostics using readily available data that be...
Abstract. Under climate change driven by increased carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations, stratospheric ozone will respond to temperature and circulation changes, lead chemistry-climate feedback modulating large-scale atmospheric Earth's energy budget. However, there is a significant model uncertainty since many processes are involved few models have detailed chemistry scheme. This work employs the latest data from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), investigate response...
The European precipitation response to El Niño (EN) has been found present interdecadal changes, with alternated periods of important or negligible EN impact in late winter. These are associated opposite phases multi-decadal sea surface temperature (SST) variability, which modifies the tropospheric background and teleconnections. In addition, other studies have shown how SST anomalies equatorial Pacific, particular, location largest anomalous SST, modulate stratospheric EN. Nevertheless,...
Abstract The response of the North Atlantic large‐scale circulation to El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) exhibits distinct differences between early (November–December) and late (January–February) winter. However, reasons for this are unclear, particularly regarding winter response. Here we examine role storm‐track dynamics in influencing intraseasonal variability ENSO teleconnection Atlantic. During there a broad weakening eddy heat flux upstream storm track during Niño phase, which is...
Future changes in the occurrence rates of major stratospheric warmings (MSWs) have recently been identified chemistry‐climate model (CCM) simulations, but without reaching a consensus, potentially due to competition different forcings. We examine future variations MSWs transient and timeslice simulations ECHAM/MESSy atmospheric chemistry (EMAC) CCM, with focus on individual effect external factors. Although no statistically significant variation is found decadal‐mean frequency MSWs, shift...
Abstract Connections across seasons in atmospheric circulation and sea ice have long been sought to advance seasonal prediction. This study presents a link between the springtime stratosphere Arctic summer through autumn. The polar stratospheric vortex dominates winter before breaking down each spring, which is called final warming, as solar radiation returns pole. Interannual variability of this breakdown dynamically driven, leading different tropospheric surface patterns. To examine...
<p>Major sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs), vortex formation and final breakdown dates are key highlight points of the polar vortex. These phenomena relevant for stratosphere-troposphere coupling, which explains interest in understanding their future changes. However, up to now, there is not a clear consensus on projected changes robust, particularly Northern Hemisphere, possibly due short data record or relatively moderate CO<sub>2</sub> forcing....
Abstract During northern winter the stratospheric polar vortex is highly variable — even breaking down completely during sudden warmings. The strength of observed to be coupled surface weather, primarily through swings in phase Northern Annular Mode which nearly uuivalent polar‐cap sea‐level pressure. Pressure changes (as a function height) are largest at surface, difficult reconcile with remote effects variability. This conundrum requires some mechanism(s) amplify pressure anomalies. A...