Recent research has strengthened the understanding of links between climate and tropical cyclones (TCs) on various timescales. Geological records past climates have shown century‐long variations in TC numbers. While no significant trends been identified Atlantic since late 19th century, observed numbers intensities occurred this basin over few decades, other basins are increasingly being identified. However, causes these is incomplete, confidence continues to be hampered by a lack consistent...

Abstract Continental United States (CONUS) hurricane-related inflation-adjusted damage has increased significantly since 1900. However, 1900 neither observed CONUS landfalling hurricane frequency nor intensity shows significant trends, including the devastating 2017 season. Two large-scale climate modes that have been noted in prior research to impact activity are El Niño–Southern Oscillation on interannual time scales and Atlantic multidecadal oscillation scales. La Niña seasons tend be...

Abstract This study investigates global tropical cyclone (TC) activity trends from 1990 to 2021, a period marked by largely consistent observational platforms. Several TC metrics have decreased during this period, with significant decreases in hurricane numbers and Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE). Most of decrease has been driven downward the western North Pacific. Globally, short‐lived named storms, 24‐hr intensification events ≥50 kt day −1 , TC‐related damage increased significantly. The...

The recent destructive Atlantic hurricane seasons and several publications have sparked debate over whether warming tropical sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are causing more intense, longer‐lived cyclones. This paper investigates worldwide cyclone frequency intensity to determine trends in activity the past twenty years during which there has been an approximate 0.2°–0.4°C of SSTs. data indicate a large increasing trend longevity for North basin considerable decreasing Northeast Pacific. All...

Abstract The 30–60-day Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) has been documented in previous research to impact tropical cyclone (TC) activity for various basins around the globe. MJO modulates large-scale convective throughout tropics, and concomitantly other fields known such as vertical wind shear, midlevel moisture, motion, sea level pressure. Atlantic basin typically shows smallest modulations most of any basins; however, it still experiences significant activity. convectively enhanced phases...

Abstract The large-scale equatorial circulation known as the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) has been shown to impact tropical cyclone activity in several basins around globe. In this paper, author utilizes an MJO index created by Wheeler and Hendon examine its impacts on genesis intensification Atlantic. Large differences frequency intensity of are seen, both Atlantic well northwest Caribbean Gulf Mexico depending phase. Coherent changes upper- lower-level winds relative humidity likely...

Abstract Ten years ago, Webster et al. documented a large and significant increase in both the number as well percentage of category 4 5 hurricanes for all global basins from 1970 to 2004, this manuscript examines whether those trends have continued when including 10 additional data. In contrast that study, shown here, frequency has small, insignificant downward trend while upward between 1990 2014. Accumulated cyclone energy globally experienced during same period. The primary reason noted...

El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a major source of seasonal western North Pacific (WNP) tropical cyclone (TC) predictability. However, the spatial characteristics ENSO have changed in recent decades, from warming more typically eastern equatorial during canonical or cold tongue Niño to central noncanonical warm pool Niño. We investigated response basinwide WNP TC activity and clustering tracks location magnitude using observations, TC-permitting channel model simulations, track...

Abstract Atlantic hurricane seasons have a long history of causing significant financial impacts, with Harvey, Irma, Maria, Florence, and Michael combining to incur more than 345 billion USD in direct economic damage during 2017–2018. While Michael’s was primarily wind storm surge-driven, Florence’s Harvey’s predominantly rainfall inland flood-driven. Several revised scales been proposed replace the Saffir–Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale (SSHWS), which currently only categorizes threat, while...

Abstract Recent increases in Atlantic basin tropical cyclone activity since 1995 and the associated destructive U.S. landfall events 2004 2005 have generated considerable interest into why there has been such a sharp upturn. Natural variability, human-induced global warming, or combination of both factors, suggested. Several previous studies discussed observed multidecadal variability North over 25–40-yr time scales. This study, using data from 1878 to present, creates metric based on far...

A significant increase in the proportion of tropical cyclones undergoing rapid intensification at least once during their lifetime (RITCs) over western North Pacific (WNP) is observed since 1998 when an abrupt climate regime shift occurred. Changes large-scale atmospheric and oceanic conditions affecting TC activity are compared between two subperiods: one before 1998. Results suggest that both a decrease number TCs nearly unchanged RITCs caused frequency RITCs. The numbers likely driven by...

This paper summarizes the forecast methods, outputs and skill offered by twelve agencies for seasonal tropical cyclone (TC) activity around world. These use a variety of techniques ranging from statistical models to dynamical predict basinwide regional activity. In addition, several hybrid statistical/dynamical now TC track density as well landfall likelihood. Realtime Atlantic hurricane forecasts have shown low in April, modest June good August at predicting when evaluated over 2003-2018....

Abstract Rapid intensification (RI) refers to a significant increase in tropical cyclone (TC) intensity over short period of time. A TC can also undergo multiple RI events during its lifetime, and these pose challenge for operational forecasting. The long-term tendency magnitude TCs the western North Pacific is investigated this study. During 1979–2018, increasing trend found magnitude, which primarily results from number strong events, defined as 24 h increases at least 50 kt. Furthermore,...

Abstract El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has been shown in many previous papers to impact seasonal levels of Atlantic basin tropical cyclone activity. This paper revisits this relationship by examining a longer period (1900–2009) than examined earlier analyses. Alterations large-scale climate parameters, especially vertical wind shear, are be the primary reasons why activity is reduced Niño years. Climate signals found somewhat stronger Caribbean for remainder Atlantic. The focus then...

Abstract Caribbean basin tropical cyclone activity shows significant variability on interannual as well multidecadal time scales. Comprehensive statistics for hurricane are tabulated, and then large-scale climate features examined their impacts this activity. The primary driver of is found to be El Niño–Southern Oscillation, which alters levels due changes in vertical wind shear through column stability. Much more occurs the with La Niña conditions than Niño conditions. On scale, Atlantic...

Abstract The Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) has been demonstrated to play a role in tropical cyclone (TC) activity around the globe number of recent studies. While impact MJO on TCs Atlantic basin since mid-1970s well documented, newly developed 107-yr-long index for allows additional analysis impacts TC activity. increases when MJO-related convection is enhanced over Africa and Indian Ocean, while suppressed enhances western Pacific. This long-term record also how MJO’s may be modulated by...

Abstract The long‐term tendency of the average latitude at which tropical cyclones (TCs) reach their lifetime maximum intensity (LMI) over western North Pacific (WNP) is investigated in this study. Despite post‐1961 significant poleward shift annual mean LMI latitude, migration rate nonuniform on decadal timescales, having an insignificant trend and a increasing before after 1980, respectively. Interdecadal fluctuations TC genesis ( φ G ) as well increases latitudinal distance between...

Abstract Recent studies have noted a poleward shift in tropical cyclone (TC) lifetime maximum intensity (LMI) location. Whether this observed is due to global warming, natural variability, or combination of both factors remains inconclusive. The western North Pacific (WNP) has been shown prior research be the most robust contributor LMI migration. This study explores interannual and interdecadal climate drivers WNP location from 1979 2018. On time scales, there are more northward-moving TC...

Abstract Since 1900, landfalling hurricanes have been the costliest of all weather-related disasters to afflict contiguous United States. To provide a present-day (2022) reevaluation this risk, study employs an improved normalization approach better understand potential economic event losses in context contemporary societal conditions. The updated methodology identifies impacted coastal counties using newly available radius maximum winds at landfall. Hurricane Katrina is most expensive...

The impact of anthropogenic global warming on tropical cyclone (TC) frequency remains a challenging issue, partly due to relatively short period reliable observational TC records and inconsistencies in climate model simulations. Using detection from 20 CMIP6 historical simulations, we show that the majority (75%) these models decrease global-scale 1850 2014. We demonstrated this result is largely explained by weakened mid-tropospheric upward motion over Pacific Atlantic main development...

Abstract The impact of a warming climate on tropical cyclones (TCs) remains unclear. Here, we find that the probability density function for western North Pacific TC lifetime maximum intensity (LMI) has an amplified bimodal distribution in recent years. This change implies trend toward more extreme TCs and fewer moderate TCs. Changes LMI are associated with alterations occurrence rapidly intensifying tracks, due to steering flow linked weakening Hadley cell, cause move northwestward into...