<section class="abstract"><h2 class="abstractTitle text-title my-1" id="d13860437e169">Abstract</h2> Model projections of tropical cyclone (TC) activity response to anthropogenic warming in climate models are assessed. Observations, theory, and models, with increasing robustness, indicate rising global TC risk for some metrics that projected impact multiple regions. A 2°C is as follows. 1) The most confident TC-related projection sea level rise accompanying the will lead higher storm...

Abstract. The Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology Earth System Model version 3 (NESM v3) has been developed, aiming to provide a numerical modeling platform for cross-disciplinary system studies, project future climate environment changes, conduct subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction. While the previous model NESM v1 simulates internal modes variability well, it no vegetation dynamics suffers considerable radiative energy imbalance at top atmosphere surface, resulting in...

Numerical model studies have suggested that the ongoing global climate change will likely affect tropical cyclone activity. Since warming has been underway, it is meaningful to ask: Are there evidences of observed changes in activity? Using best‐track data from 1965 2003, we show for first time over past four decades two prevailing typhoon tracks western North Pacific (WNP) shifted westward significantly; thus subtropical East Asia experienced increasing influence; but influence South China...

A new approach is proposed to assess the possible impacts of global climate change on tropical cyclone (TC) tracks in western North Pacific (WNP) basin. The idea based premise that future TC track characteristics primarily determined by changes large-scale environmental steering flows and formation locations. It demonstrated main current climatology can be derived from climatological mean velocity field motion using a trajectory model. motion, composed beta drift, each grid flow computed...

Abstract Typhoon Morakot made landfall on Taiwan with a record rainfall of 3031.5 mm during 6–13 August 2009. While previous studies have emphasized the influence southwesterly winds associated intraseasonal oscillations and monsoon surges moisture supply, interaction between low-frequency flows resulting slow movement asymmetric precipitation structure typhoon were examined observationally. Embedded in multi-time-scale monsoonal flows, generally moved westward prior to its underwent...

Abstract Tropical cyclones (TCs) in the western North Pacific or typhoons account for one third of all TCs world and change mean TC genesis location can affect billions people islands Asian countries. The annual longitude is generally controlled by east‐west shift tropical upper tropospheric trough (TUTT). A pronounced westward TUTT found available reanalysis data sets during 1979–2012, suppressing eastern portion (east 145°E) basin due to enhanced vertical wind shear associated with shift....

Abstract Previous studies reported that the summer western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) has extended westward since late 1970s and change affected rainfall over China tropical cyclone prevailing tracks in North Pacific. The authors show 500-hPa geopotential height midlatitudes of Northern Hemisphere trended upward warming climate extension WPSH quantified with is mainly a manifestation global rising trend. That is, not remarkably when trend removed. It suggested index indicates west–east...

Abstract While the Atlantic basin experienced busiest hurricane season in 2020, typhoon activity over western North Pacific (WNP) was also record‐setting with no tropical cyclone (TC) formation July which is first time available historical records. The unprecedented absence of TC consistent extremely unfavorable large‐scale conditions that are linked to an anomalous anticyclonic circulation WNP, results mainly from sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies across oceans. Numerical experiments...

Abstract Large-scale monsoon gyres and the involved tropical cyclone formation over western North Pacific have been documented in previous studies. The aim of this study is to understand how affect formation. An observational conducted on during period 2000–10, with a focus their structures associated A total 37 are identified May–October among which 31 accompanied 42 cyclones, accounting for 19.8% Monsoon generally located poleward side composited trough peak occurrence August–October....

In this study, we have investigated contributions of tropical Indian Ocean (IO) sea surface temperature (SST) warming and El Niño—Southern Oscillation (ENSO) to the interannual variability cyclone (TC) genesis frequency over western North Pacific (WNP) between 1948 2010 involved physical mechanisms. Both ENSO IO Basin Mode (IOBM) are found play important roles in modulating WNP TC frequency, but their effects significantly different. The time series seasonal empirical orthogonal function SST...

Abstract The east–west migration of the tropical upper-tropospheric trough (TUTT) on interannual time scale and its influence cyclone (TC) formation over western North Pacific (WNP) is investigated in this study. Climatologically, TUTT can be identified from 100 to 400 hPa with a relative vorticity maximum between 150 200 hPa. In addition strong westerly vertical wind shear south flank TUTT, study shows that cold-core system associated low humidity subsidence east axis. As result, TC...

Abstract Tropical cyclone (TC) size, usually measured with the radius of gale force wind (34 kt or 17 m s−1), is an important parameter for estimating TC risks such as damage, rainfall distribution, and storm surge. Previous studies have reported that there a very weak relationship between size intensity. A close examination presented here using satellite-based analyses suggests intensity nonlinear. generally increases increasing maximum sustained before 2.50° latitude at 103 53.0 s−1 then...

Abstract A reliable shape–slope ( μ‐Λ ) relationship for polarimetric retrieval in tropical cyclones (TCs) is unavailable due to the lack of raindrop size distribution (RSD) measurements within TC eyewall. This study presents an analysis convective RSDs eyewall and spiral rainbands, based on ~26 hr measurement from 17 Thies disdrometers during landfall Typhoon Lekima (2019) eastern China. derived, which different those rainbands Lekima. The average diameter parameter D m (concentration log...

The impact of anthropogenic global warming on tropical cyclone (TC) frequency remains a challenging issue, partly due to relatively short period reliable observational TC records and inconsistencies in climate model simulations. Using detection from 20 CMIP6 historical simulations, we show that the majority (75%) these models decrease global-scale 1850 2014. We demonstrated this result is largely explained by weakened mid-tropospheric upward motion over Pacific Atlantic main development...

The impact of the Three Gorges Dam (TGD) on regional precipitation is examined through analysis National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) rainfall rate Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) land surface temperature high‐resolution simulation using Pennsylvania State University‐National Center for Atmospheric Research (PSU‐NCAR) fifth‐generation Mesoscale Model (MM5). independent satellite data sets numerical clearly...

Abstract In the second part of this study, numerical experiments are conducted to investigate influences multi-time-scale monsoonal flows on track change Typhoon Morakot (2009). While control simulation captures slowing and northward deflections in vicinity Taiwan Island, highly asymmetric rainfall structure, associated pattern, sensitivity suggest that westward movement prior landfall subsequent shifts were closely with interaction between flows. Prior Taiwan, moved directly toward because...

Abstract Increasing tropical cyclone (TC) influence in the subtropical East Asia and decreasing TC activity South China Sea over past few decades have been researched previous studies. The singular value decomposition (SVD) of observational data Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) climate change simulations Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) shows that observed track changes are linked to leading SVD mode global sea surface temperature (SST) warming associated large-scale steering...

[1] Tropical cyclone (TC) damage is closely associated with the time TCs spend over land. After examining 233 that formed western North Pacific and then made landfall China mainland during 1951–2009, this study shows a significant increase in annual average overland duration of TC past 35 years from 1975 to 2009, while no trend can be detected frequency. The increasing land consistent rainfall changes large-scale steering flow. It seems decreasing vertical wind shear allows survival years.

Abstract Tropical cyclones (TCs) over the western North Pacific (WNP) are usually embedded in multitime-scale summer monsoon circulation and occasionally experience sudden track changes, which currently a challenge TC forecasting. A composite analysis of 15 north-turning cases 14 west-turning that occurred during period 2000–10 was conducted with focus on influences low-frequency circulations. It is found TCs two specific categories changes gyre about 2500 km diameter quasi-biweekly...

Significance Tornado-scale vortices in the intense tropical cyclone eyewall have been speculated upon for more than two decades, but their small horizontal scale, fast movement, and associated severe turbulence make them very difficult to observe directly, except case of Hurricane Hugo (1989) Atlantic basin. Using Advanced Weather Research Forecast large eddy simulation framework with unprecedented grid size 37 m, numerical experiment this study confirms existence simulated tornado-scale...

Abstract How anthropogenic forcing could change tropical cyclones (TCs) is a keen societal concern owing to its significant socio-economic impacts. However, global picture of the aerosol effect on TCs has not yet emerged. Here we show that emission can reduce northern hemisphere (NH) but increase southern (SH) primarily through altering vertical wind shear and mid-tropospheric upward motion in TC formation zones. These circulation changes are driven by aerosol-induced NH-cooler-than-SH...

Based on the observational data of volatile organic compounds （VOCs）, conventional air pollutants, and ERA5 meteorological reanalysis at three sites, namely, Caochangmen （CCM）, Pukou （PK）, Xianlin University Town （XL）, in Nanjing from 2015 to 2021, ozone generation depletion mechanisms ozone-polluted days under stable weather conditions were investigated using observation-based model （OBM-MCM）. The results showed that ① Significant year-by-year differences exist frequency for sites. maximum...