A5038072783- Climate variability and models
- Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations
- Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones Research
- Oceanographic and Atmospheric Processes
- Atmospheric and Environmental Gas Dynamics
- Arctic and Antarctic ice dynamics
- Plant Water Relations and Carbon Dynamics
- Hydrology and Drought Analysis
- Atmospheric Ozone and Climate
- Cryospheric studies and observations
- Tree-ring climate responses
- Climate change and permafrost
- Atmospheric chemistry and aerosols
- Ocean Waves and Remote Sensing
- Marine and coastal ecosystems
- Geology and Paleoclimatology Research
- Methane Hydrates and Related Phenomena
- Flood Risk Assessment and Management
- Atmospheric aerosols and clouds
- Climate Change and Health Impacts
- Climate change impacts on agriculture
- Earthquake Detection and Analysis
- Ionosphere and magnetosphere dynamics
- Geophysics and Gravity Measurements
- Hydrology and Watershed Management Studies
Columbia University
2016-2025
Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory
2016-2025
US Climate Variability and Predictability Program
2020
Council of Science Editors
2020
Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Guangzhou)
2019
Sun Yat-sen University
2018
Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences
2018
Washington State University Vancouver
2018
Goddard Institute for Space Studies
2018
University of California, Riverside
2018
How anthropogenic climate change will affect hydroclimate in the arid regions of southwestern North America has implications for allocation water resources and course regional development. Here we show that there is a broad consensus among models this region dry 21st century transition to more should already be under way. If these are correct, levels aridity recent multiyear drought or Dust Bowl 1950s droughts become new climatology American Southwest within time frame years decades.
Abstract In recent years, two alarming trends in North Atlantic climate have been noted: an increase the intensity and frequency of hurricanes a rapid decrease Greenland ice sheet volume. Both these phenomena occurred while significant warming took place sea surface temperatures (SSTs), thus sparking debate on whether is consequence natural variations, anthropogenic forcing, or both; if both, what their relative roles are. Here models observations are used to detect attribute long-term...
A review is provided of stationary wave theory, the theory for deviations from zonal symmetry climate. To help focus discussion authors concentrate exclusively on northern winter. Several theoretical issues, including external Rossby dispersion relation and vertical structure, critical latitude absorption, nonlinear response to orography, interaction forced trains with preexisting asymmetries, are chosen while simultaneously presenting a decomposition wintertime field using steady-state model.
Abstract Identifying the prime drivers of twentieth-century multidecadal variability in Atlantic Ocean is crucial for predicting how will evolve coming decades and resulting broad impacts on weather precipitation patterns around globe. Recently, Booth et al. showed that Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model, version 2, Earth system configuration (HadGEM2-ES) closely reproduces observed variations area-averaged North sea surface temperature twentieth century. The simulated HadGEM2-ES are...
Abstract The U.S. Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR) working group on drought recently initiated a series of global climate model simulations forced with idealized SST anomaly patterns, designed to address number uncertainties regarding the impact forcing role land–atmosphere feedbacks regional drought. runs were carried out five different atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs) one coupled atmosphere–ocean in which was continuously nudged imposed forcing. This paper...
A key determinant of winter weather and climate in Europe North America is the Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), dominant mode atmospheric variability domain. Skilful seasonal forecasting surface both reflected largely how accurately models can predict NAO. Most dynamical models, however, have limited skill forecasts new empirical model proposed for forecast NAO that exhibits higher than current models. The provides robust skilful prediction December-January-February (DJF) mean index using a...
Abstract The increasing frequency of heatwaves over East Asia (EA) is impacting agriculture, water management, and people’s livelihood. However, the effect humidity on high-temperature events has not yet been fully explored. Using observations future climate change projections conducted with latest generation Earth System models, we examine mechanisms dry moist EA. In heatwave region, anticyclonic circulation amplified after onset under influence convergence anomalous wave activity flux...
Several pathways for how climate change may influence the U.S. coastal hurricane risk have been proposed, but physical mechanisms and possible connections between various remain unclear. Here, future projections of activity (1980-2100), downscaled from multiple models using a synthetic model, show an enhanced frequency Gulf lower East coast regions. The increase in is driven primarily by changes steering flow, which can be attributed to development upper-level cyclonic circulation over...
Abstract Computations of precipitation recycling using analytical models are generally performed under the assumption negligible change in moisture storage atmospheric column. Because term is nonnegligible at smaller time scales, most studies done monthly or longer scales. A dynamic model, which incorporates storage, developed. It derived formally from conservation mass equation and presented a simple computationally efficient form. This model allows for analysis range temporal daily to...
The year-to-year fluctuations in summertime precipitation over the U.S. Great Plains are examined this study using data from 1950 to 1990. There large interannual variabilities amounts during period considered. A long-term trend relatively wet conditions 1950s dry 1980s is also identified. spatial scale of anomalous covers a portion United States on seasonal mean timescales. It shown that significantly correlated with tropical, as well North Pacific, sea surface temperature (SST) variations....
Winter 2009/10 had anomalously large snowfall in the central parts of United States and northwestern Europe. Connections between seasonal snow anomalies scale atmospheric circulation are explored. An El Niño state is associated with positive southern along eastern seaboard negative to north. A NAO causes across North America northern It argued that increased U.S. contributed by a southward displaced storm track but further north, Europe, arise from cold temperature NAO. These relations used...
[1] Atlantic Multi-decadal Variability (AMV), also known as the Atlantic Oscillation (AMO), is characterized by a sharp rise and fall of North basin-wide sea surface temperatures (SST) on multi-decadal time scales. Widespread consequences these rapid temperature swings were noted in many previous studies. Among are drying Sahel 1960–70s change frequency intensity hurricanes Given short instrumental data records (about century long) central question whether climate fluctuations robustly...
Abstract The dynamical mechanisms associated with the impact of year-to-year variability in tropical North Atlantic (TNA) sea surface temperatures (SSTs) on American precipitation, during cold and warm halves hydrological year (October–September) are examined. Observations indicate that both seasons warmer-than-normal TNA SSTs a reduction precipitation over America, mainly west ∼90°W, effect can be up to 30% seasonal RMS variability. This finding confirms earlier studies observations models....
The patterns of precipitation anomalies forced by the El Niño–Southern Oscillation during northern hemisphere winter and spring are remarkably hemispherically symmetric and, in midlatitudes, have a prominent zonally component. Observations global variability moisture budget within atmospheric reanalyses examined to argue that component is caused interactions between transient eddies tropically-forced changes subtropical jets. During Niño events jets strengthen each shift equatorward. Changes...
The fifth-generation PSU–NCAR Mesoscale Model (MM5)-based regional climate model (CMM5) capability in simulating the U.S. precipitation annual cycle is evaluated with a 1982–2002 continuous baseline integration driven by NCEP–DOE second Atmospheric Intercomparison Project (AMIP II) reanalysis. causes for major biases (differences from observations) are studied through supplementary seasonal sensitivity experiments various driving lateral boundary conditions (LBCs) and physics...
SE EXAMINA LA VARIABILIDAD DEL HIDROCLIMA MEXICANO CON UN ENFOQUE PARTICULAR EN LAS SEQUIAS PERSISTENTES MEDIANTE OBSERVACIONES, MODELOS DE SIMULACION FORZADOS POR TEMPERATURAS HISTORICAS SUPERFICIE MARINA (SST SUS SIGLAS INGLES), RECONSTRUCCIONES PALEOCLIMATICAS BASADAS ANILLOS ARBOLES, MO-DELOS Y PROYECCIONES CAMBIOS CLIMA TANTO ORIGEN NATURAL COMO ANTROPICO. DURANTE MITAD INVERNAL ANO, EL A LO LARGO ANCHO MEXICO VE INFLUENCIADO CONDICION OCEANO PACIFICO TROPICAL, MIENTRAS QUE INFLUENCIA...
Abstract The hydrological cycle in the Mediterranean region, as well its change over coming decades, is investigated using Interim European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim) and phase 5 of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) historical simulations projections decades. land regions have positive precipitation minus evaporation, P − E, winter negative E summer. According to ERA-Interim, sustained by transient eddy moisture convergence opposed mean...
Abstract The mechanisms of model-projected atmospheric moisture budget change across North America are examined in simulations conducted with 22 models from phase 5 the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Modern-day model budgets validated against European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Interim Re-Analysis. In winter half year transient eddies converge continent while mean flow wets west central California northward and dries southwest. summer there is widespread divergence...
Abstract Changes of the Asian summer monsoon in response to anthropogenic forcing are examined using observations and phase 5 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) multimodel, multirealization ensemble. In twentieth century, CMIP5 models indicate a predominantly drying monsoon, while twenty-first century under representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario, rainfall enhances across entire domain. The thermodynamic dynamic mechanisms causing changes evaluated specific...