A5048201970- Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones Research
- Climate variability and models
- Ocean Waves and Remote Sensing
- Oceanographic and Atmospheric Processes
- Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations
- Atmospheric and Environmental Gas Dynamics
- Marine and coastal ecosystems
- Coastal wetland ecosystem dynamics
- Geology and Paleoclimatology Research
- Coastal and Marine Management
- Geological and Geophysical Studies
- Coastal and Marine Dynamics
- Arctic and Antarctic ice dynamics
- Disaster Management and Resilience
- Ocean Acidification Effects and Responses
- Climate Change Policy and Economics
- Remote Sensing and Land Use
- Marine and environmental studies
- Hydrology and Watershed Management Studies
- Infrastructure Resilience and Vulnerability Analysis
- Earthquake Detection and Analysis
- Plant Water Relations and Carbon Dynamics
- Island Studies and Pacific Affairs
- Oil Spill Detection and Mitigation
- Flood Risk Assessment and Management
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
2015-2025
Battelle
2023
Texas A&M University
2012
Improving a tropical cyclone's forecast and mitigating its destructive potential requires knowledge of various environmental factors that influence the path intensity. Herein, using combination observations model simulations, we systematically demonstrate cyclone intensification is significantly affected by salinity-induced barrier layers, which are "quasi-permanent" features in upper oceans. When cyclones pass over regions with increased stratification stability within layer reduce...
Abstract This study provides an overview of the coupled high‐resolution Version 1 Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SMv1) and documents characteristics a 50‐year‐long control simulation with time‐invariant 1950 forcings following HighResMIP protocol. In terms global root‐mean‐squared error metrics, this is generally superior to results from low‐resolution configuration E3SMv1 (due resolution, tuning changes, possibly initialization procedure) compares favorably models in CMIP5 ensemble....
Abstract The changes in extreme rainfall associated with a warming climate have drawn significant attention recent years. Mounting evidence shows that sub-daily convective extremes are increasing faster than the rate of change atmospheric precipitable water capacity climate. However, response precipitation depends on type storm supported by meteorological environment. Here using long-term satellite, surface radar and rain-gauge network data reanalyses, we show observed increases springtime...
Abstract The postmonsoon (October–November) tropical cyclone (TC) season in the Bay of Bengal (BoB) has spawned many deadliest storms recorded history. Here it is shown that intensity major TCs (wind speed > 49 m s −1 ) BoB increased during 1981–2010. It found changes environmental parameters are responsible for observed increases TC intensity. Increases sea surface temperature and upper ocean heat content made more conducive to intensification, while enhanced convective instability...
Abstract This work documents version two of the Department Energy's Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM). E3SMv2 is a significant evolution from its predecessor E3SMv1, resulting in model that nearly twice as fast and with simulated climate improved many metrics. We describe physical lower horizontal resolution configuration consisting 110 km atmosphere, 165 land, 0.5° river routing model, an ocean sea ice mesh spacing varying between 60 mid‐latitudes 30 at equator poles. The...
Several pathways for how climate change may influence the U.S. coastal hurricane risk have been proposed, but physical mechanisms and possible connections between various remain unclear. Here, future projections of activity (1980-2100), downscaled from multiple models using a synthetic model, show an enhanced frequency Gulf lower East coast regions. The increase in is driven primarily by changes steering flow, which can be attributed to development upper-level cyclonic circulation over...
Abstract Rapid intensification (RI) of hurricanes is notoriously difficult to predict and can contribute severe destruction loss life. While past studies examined the frequency RI occurrence, changes in magnitude were not considered. Here we explore over 30‐year satellite period 1986–2015. In central eastern tropical Atlantic, which includes much main development region, 95th percentile 24‐hr intensity increased at 3.8 knots per decade. western encompassing Caribbean Sea Gulf Mexico, trends...
Super typhoons (STYs), intense tropical cyclones of the western North Pacific, rank among most destructive natural hazards globally. The violent winds these storms induce deep mixing upper ocean, resulting in strong sea surface cooling and making STYs highly sensitive to ocean density stratification. Although a few studies examined potential impacts changes thermal structure on future cyclones, they did not take into account near-surface salinity. Here, using combination observations coupled...
This work documents version two of the Department Energy's Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM). E3SM 2 (E3SMv2) is a significant evolution from its predecessor E3SMv1, resulting in model that nearly twice as fast and with simulated climate improved many metrics. We describe physical lower horizontal resolution configuration consisting 110 km atmosphere, 165 land, 0.5° river routing model, an ocean sea ice mesh spacing varying between 60 mid-latitudes 30 at equator poles. The...
Abstract To incorporate the effects of tropical cyclone (TC)‐induced upper ocean mixing and sea surface temperature (SST) cooling on TC intensification, a vertical average down to fixed depth was proposed as replacement for SST within framework air‐sea coupled Potential Intensity (PI). However, which TC‐induced penetrates may vary substantially with stratification storm state. account these effects, here we develop “Dynamic Intensity” (DPI) based considerations stratified fluid turbulence....
Abstract Given annual occurrences of hypoxia, harmful algal blooms, and evidence coastal acidification, the potential impacts climate change on water quality are increasing concern in U.S. Pacific Northwest estuaries such as Salish Sea. While large‐scale global projections well documented, our understanding nearshore estuarine‐scale response is not developed. In this study, future within Sea fjord‐like environment was examined using Model driven by downscaled outputs from National Center for...
Abstract Tropical cyclone (TC) rapid intensification (RI) is difficult to predict and poses a formidable threat coastal populations. A warm upper ocean well known favor RI, but the role of salinity less clear. This study shows strong inverse relationship between TC RI in eastern Caribbean western tropical Atlantic due near-surface freshening from Amazon–Orinoco River system. In this region, rapidly intensifying TCs induce much stronger surface enthalpy flux compared more weakly storms, part...
Abstract Reducing tropical cyclone (TC) intensity forecast errors is a challenging task that has interested the operational forecasting and research community for decades. To address this, we developed deep learning (DL)-based Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) TC prediction model. The model was trained using global Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS) predictors to change in maximum wind speed Atlantic Basin. In first experiment, 24-hour period considered. overcome sample size...
This work documents version two of the Department Energy’s Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM). E3SM 2 (E3SMv2) is a significant evolution from its predecessor E3SMv1, resulting in model that nearly twice as fast and with simulated climate improved many metrics. We describe physical lower horizontal resolution configuration consisting 110 km atmosphere, 165 land, 0.5° river routing model, an ocean sea ice mesh spacing varying between 60 mid-latitudes 30 at equator poles. The...
Abstract Hurricanes often cause severe damage and loss of life, storms that intensify close to the coast pose a particularly serious threat. While changes in hurricane intensification environment have been examined at basin scales previously, near‐coastal not adequately explored. In this study, we address using suite observations climate model simulations. Over 40‐year period 1979–2018, mean 24‐hr rate increased by ∼1.2 kt 6‐hr −1 near US Atlantic coast. However, significant increase did...
Abstract Tropical Cyclones (TCs) inflict substantial coastal damages, making it pertinent to understand changing storm characteristics in the important nearshore region. Past work examined several aspects of TCs relevant for impacts regions. However, few studies explored intensification and its response climate change at global scale. Here, we address this using a suite observations numerical model simulations. Over historical period 1979–2020, reveal mean TC rate increase about 3 kt per...
Hurricanes passing over the ocean can mix water column down to great depths and resuspend massive volumes of sediments on continental shelves. Consequently, organic carbon reduced inorganic compounds associated with these be resuspended from anaerobic portions seabed re-exposed dissolved oxygen (DO) in column. This process drive DO consumption as become oxidized. Previous studies have investigated effect hurricanes different coastal regions world, highlighting alleviation hypoxic conditions...
Abstract Decade‐long satellite sea surface slinity (SSS) observations show that rain dilution prevails in wakes of tropical depressions (∼−0.1 pss) and storms (∼−0.05 on the left (right) side Northern (Southern) Hemisphere storms. For stronger storms, rain‐induced is dominated by saltier water entrainment, leading to median salinification 0.3 pss for most intense peaking right‐hand at around twice maximum wind radius. The magnitude salty wake increases slowly moving vertical salinity...
Abstract Tropical Cyclones (TCs) cause significant socio-economic damages to the US and Caribbean coastal regions annually, making it important understand TC risk at local-to-regional scales. However, short length of observed record substantial computational expense associated with high-resolution climate models make difficult assess using either approach. To overcome these challenges, we developed a database synthetic TCs Risk Analysis Framework for (RAFT). The includes 40,000 tracks,...
Abstract Forecasting rapid intensification (RI) of tropical cyclones (TC) is a mission known for large errors. One under-researched factor that affects TC salinity, which important density stratification in certain ocean regions and can affect the surface enthalpy flux under strengthening hurricane. To investigate impact efficacy using salinity information state-of-the-art forecasting, we use statistical model consisting variety machine learning (ML) methods. For data, satellite measurements...
Abstract While power outages caused by tropical cyclones (TCs) already pose a great threat to coastal communities, how—and why—these risks will change in warming climate is poorly understood. To address this need, we develop robust machine learning model capture TC-induced outage risk. When applied 900 000 synthetic TCs downscaled from simulated historical and future conditions under strong scenario, find risk the United States Puerto Rico expected increase broadly end of century, with some...
Abstract. The U.S. Department of Energy's Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) version 2.1 builds on E3SMv2 with several changes, the most notable being addition Fox-Kemper et al. (2011) mixed-layer eddy parameterization. This parameterization captures effect finite-amplitude, eddies as an overturning streamfunction and has primary function restratification. Herein, we outline changes to mean climate state E3SM that were introduced by this Overall, presence submesoscale improves...
Extreme climate events or tails of natural hazard distributions tend to be the most damaging in terms societal impacts. While traditional physics-based approaches are suitable for gaining mechanistic understanding and process-based studies, they may not adequate characterizing probabilistic risk from extreme events. Here, we demonstrate a ML/AI-based approach estimating tropical cyclones (TCs) associated coastal flooding. First, simulate nearly one million TCs current future climates using...