A5079879047- Atmospheric and Environmental Gas Dynamics
- Climate Change Policy and Economics
- Carbon Dioxide Capture Technologies
- Global Energy and Sustainability Research
- Climate variability and models
- Methane Hydrates and Related Phenomena
- Ocean Acidification Effects and Responses
- Climate Change and Geoengineering
- Environmental Impact and Sustainability
- CO2 Sequestration and Geologic Interactions
- Social Acceptance of Renewable Energy
- Atmospheric chemistry and aerosols
- Atmospheric Ozone and Climate
- Sustainability and Climate Change Governance
- Climate Change, Adaptation, Migration
- Peatlands and Wetlands Ecology
- Climate Change and Health Impacts
- Sustainability and Ecological Systems Analysis
- Soil Carbon and Nitrogen Dynamics
- Geological Studies and Exploration
- Arctic and Antarctic ice dynamics
- demographic modeling and climate adaptation
- Geophysics and Gravity Measurements
- Geochemistry and Geologic Mapping
- Plant Water Relations and Carbon Dynamics
GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel
2016-2025
Utrecht University
2024
GEOMAR Technologie GmbH - GTG
2020-2023
Simon Fraser University
2019-2020
Concordia University
2017-2019
Abstract. The Zero Emissions Commitment (ZEC) is the change in global mean temperature expected to occur following cessation of net CO2 emissions and as such a critical parameter for calculating remaining carbon budget. Model Intercomparison Project (ZECMIP) was established gain better understanding potential magnitude sign ZEC, addition processes that underlie this metric. A total 18 Earth system models both full intermediate complexity participated ZECMIP. All conducted an experiment where...
Abstract The remaining carbon budget quantifies the future CO 2 emissions to limit global warming below a desired level. Carbon budgets are subject uncertainty in Transient Climate Response Cumulative Emissions (TCRE), as well non-CO climate influences. Here we estimate TCRE using observational constraints, and integrate geophysical socioeconomic uncertainties affecting distribution of budget. We median 0.44 °C 5–95% range 0.32–0.62 per 1000 GtCO emitted. Considering only uncertainties, our...
The Paris Agreement to limit global warming well below 2°C requires drastic reductions in greenhouse gas emissions and the balancing of any remaining by carbon dioxide removal (CDR). Due uncertainties about potential durability many land-based approaches deliver sufficient CDR, marine CDR options are receiving more interest. We present current state knowledge regarding potentials, risks, side effects as challenges associated with technical feasibility, governance, monitoring, reporting...
Abstract. The amount of additional future temperature change following a complete cessation CO2 emissions is measure the unrealized warming to which we are committed due already emitted atmosphere. This “zero commitment” (ZEC) also an important quantity when estimating remaining carbon budget – limit on total consistent with limiting global mean at particular level. In recent IPCC Special Report Global Warming 1.5 ∘C, framework used calculate for ∘C included assumption that ZEC negligible...
Abstract. While international climate policies now focus on limiting global warming well below 2 °C, or pursuing 1.5 the modeling community has not provided an experimental design in which all Earth System Models (ESMs) converge and stabilize at same prescribed levels. This gap hampers accurate estimations based comprehensive ESMs of carbon emission pathways needed to meet such agreed levels, associated impacts under temperature stabilization. Here, we apply Adaptive Emission Reduction...
Abstract. Previous phases of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) have primarily focused on simulations driven by atmospheric concentrations greenhouse gases (GHGs), for both idealized model experiments and climate projections different emissions scenarios. We argue that although this approach was practical to allow parallel development Earth system detailed socioeconomic futures, carbon cycle uncertainty as represented diverse, process-resolving models (ESMs) is not manifested...
Abstract. The University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model (UVic ESCM) intermediate complexity has been a useful tool in recent assessments long-term climate changes, including both paleo-climate modelling and uncertainty future warming. Since the last official release UVic ESCM 2.9 two updates during decade, considerable model development taken place among multiple research groups. new version 2.10 presented here will be part sixth phase Coupled Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). More...
Abstract One key contribution to the wide range of 1.5 °C carbon budgets among recent studies is non-CO 2 climate forcing scenario uncertainty. Based on a partitioning historical forcing, we show that currently there net negative from fossil fuel combustion (FFC), and positive land-use change (LUC) agricultural activities. We perform set future simulations in which prescribed temperature stabilisation trajectory, diagnosed resulting budgets. Using partitioning, then adjusted scenarios...
As the technical and political challenges of land-based carbon dioxide removal (CDR) approaches become more apparent, oceans may be new “blue” frontier for drawdown strategies in climate governance. Drawing on lessons learnt from way terrestrial emerged, we explore increasing overall attention to marine environments mCDR projects, how this could manifest four entwined knowledge systems governance sectors. We consider developments within between these “frontiers” result different...
Non-technical summary We summarize some of the past year's most important findings within climate change-related research. New research has improved our understanding about remaining options to achieve Paris Agreement goals, through overcoming political barriers carbon pricing, taking into account non-CO 2 factors, a well-designed implementation demand-side and nature-based solutions, resilience building ecosystems recognition that change mitigation costs can be justified by benefits health...
Abstract Germany 2050: For the first time reached a balance between its sources of anthropogenic CO 2 to atmosphere and newly created sinks. This backcasting study presents fictional future in which this goal was achieved by avoiding (∼645 Mt ), reducing (∼50 ) removing (∼60 carbon emissions. meant substantial transformation energy system, increasing efficiency, sector coupling, electrification, storage solutions including synthetic carriers, sector‐specific for industry, transport,...
Abstract To reach their net‐zero targets, countries will have to compensate hard‐to‐abate CO 2 emissions through carbon dioxide removal (CDR). Yet, current assessments rarely include socio‐cultural or institutional aspects fail contextualize CDR options for implementation. Here we present a context‐specific feasibility assessment of the example Germany. We assess 14 options, including three chemical capture six bioenergy combined with and storage (BECCS), five that aim increase ecosystem...
Abstract Non-technical summary Scenarios compatible with the Paris agreement's temperature goal of 1.5 °C involve carbon dioxide removal measures – that actively remove CO 2 from atmosphere on a massive scale. Such large-scale implementations raise significant ethical problems. Van Vuuren et al. (2018), as well current IPCC scenarios, show reduction in energy and or food demand could reduce need for such activities. There is some reluctance to discuss societal changes. However, we argue...
Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) encompasses a wide range of anthropogenic activities to remove CO2 from the atmosphere reduce its climate warming effect. The implementation CDR technologies is necessary achieve global climate-temperature goals. Commonly, negative emissions effects on and carbon cycle have been thought be nearly equal but opposite those positive emissions. This assumption was challenged recently, with results showing an asymmetric response Earth system over 1000-year timescale...
Cumulative CO2 emissions are a robust predictor of mean temperature increase. However, many societal impacts driven by exposure to extreme weather conditions. Here, we show that cumulative can be robustly linked regional changes heat indicator, as well the resulting socioeconomic associated with labour productivity loss in vulnerable economic sectors. We estimate historical and future increases using simulations from eight Earth System Models. Both global intensity spatial pattern evolve...
The 2015 Paris Agreement aims to strengthen the global response climate change, and maintain an average temperature well below 2°C, with aspirations toward 1.5°C, by means of balancing sources sinks greenhouse gas emissions. Following this, importance carbon dioxide removal in emission pathways has been further emphasized, Negative Emissions Technologies (NETs) that capture from atmosphere remove it system have put spotlight. NETs range innovative, engineered technologies, well-known...
Removal of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere will be required over next decades to achieve Paris Agreement goal limiting global warming well below 2°C aiming at not exceeding 1.5°C. Technological and ecosystem-based options are considered for generating negative emissions through removal (CDR) several nations have already included these in their Long-Term Low Greenhouse Gas Emission Development Strategies. However, strategies development, implementation, upscaling CDR often remain vague....
In its latest assessment report the IPCC stresses need for carbon dioxide removal (CDR) to counterbalance residual emissions achieve net zero or greenhouse gas emissions. There are currently a wide variety of CDR measures available. Their potential and feasibility, however, depends on context specific conditions, as among others biophysical site characteristics, availability infrastructure resources. our study, we selected 13 concepts which present in form exemplary units described dedicated...
Abstract. Previous phases of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) have primarily focused on simulations driven by atmospheric concentrations greenhouse gases (GHGs), both for idealized model experiments, and climate projections different emissions scenarios. We argue that although this approach was pragmatic to allow parallel development Earth System detailed socioeconomic futures, carbon cycle uncertainty as represented diverse, process-resolving Models (ESMs) is not manifested...
As the global temperature approaches an average of 1.5°C above preindustrial levels - most ambitious limit set in 2015 Paris climate agreement researchers and policymakers are increasingly considering overshoot pathways that aim to mitigate impacts transgressing these guardrails. Such narratives warrant cautious consideration:Firstly, achieving net-zero goals is challenging as it is. But large-scale net-negative CO2 emissions on a scale reverse or carbon budget transgression will be...
One of the defining challenges our century is to limit global warming. Reducing anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions net zero has been understood be a central measure in achieving this climate goal. Still, after CO2 emissions, system could show delayed temperature response. This response called Zero Emissions Commitment (ZEC) and estimated approximately 0±0.3 K ZECMIP multi-model mean (Jones et al., 2019; MacDougall 2020). Understanding constraining ZEC remains relevant,...
The objective of the Paris Agreement is to obtain commitments from signing parties reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions levels consistent with a global warming well below 2 °C above pre-industrial and pursue further efforts limit it 1.5 °C. To achieve such ambitious goals, countries should collectively aim reach peak in GHG as soon possible steadily decrease their after that, ideally accomplish climate neutral world by middle this century. However, became clear that being...
Assessing Earth system feedbacks arising from carbon dioxide removal (CDR) requires developing and simulating pairs of scenarios - a mitigation scenario with deployment CDR corresponding no-CDR baseline. Both respect specific long-term constraint on emission budget (i.e. reductions are pursued at the same level ambition), but latter describes world where no is deployed, such that net emissions larger given temperature threshold missed. While over past years rich literature deep has been...