A5063959948- Atmospheric and Environmental Gas Dynamics
- Marine and coastal ecosystems
- Ocean Acidification Effects and Responses
- Climate variability and models
- Oceanographic and Atmospheric Processes
- Methane Hydrates and Related Phenomena
- Atmospheric Ozone and Climate
- Geology and Paleoclimatology Research
- Climate Change and Geoengineering
- Marine Biology and Ecology Research
- Atmospheric chemistry and aerosols
- Arctic and Antarctic ice dynamics
- Climate Change Policy and Economics
- Hydrocarbon exploration and reservoir analysis
- Coral and Marine Ecosystems Studies
- Isotope Analysis in Ecology
- Carbon Dioxide Capture Technologies
- Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations
- Marine Bivalve and Aquaculture Studies
- Scientific Research and Discoveries
- Hydrology and Watershed Management Studies
- Global Energy and Sustainability Research
- CO2 Sequestration and Geologic Interactions
- Soil and Water Nutrient Dynamics
- Reservoir Engineering and Simulation Methods
Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research
2016-2025
NORCE Norwegian Research Centre
2018-2025
University of Bergen
2008-2024
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement
2023-2024
Earth Science Institute of the Slovak Academy of Sciences
2012-2024
Institute for Basic Science
2023
Uni Research (Norway)
2011-2019
Norwegian Meteorological Institute
2018
University of Oslo
2018
Norwegian University of Science and Technology
2018
Abstract. Ocean ecosystems are increasingly stressed by human-induced changes of their physical, chemical and biological environment. Among these changes, warming, acidification, deoxygenation in primary productivity marine phytoplankton can be considered as four the major stressors open ocean ecosystems. Due to rising atmospheric CO2 coming decades, will amplified. Here, we use most recent simulations performed framework Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 assess how may evolve over...
Abstract The magnitude and evolution of parameters that characterize feedbacks in the coupled carbon–climate system are compared across nine Earth models (ESMs). analysis is based on results from biogeochemically, radiatively, fully simulations which CO2 increases at a rate 1% yr−1. These part phase 5 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). fluxes between atmosphere underlying land ocean respond to changes atmospheric concentration temperature other climate variables....
Abstract. Anthropogenic climate change is projected to lead ocean warming, acidification, deoxygenation, reductions in near-surface nutrients, and changes primary production, all of which are expected affect marine ecosystems. Here we assess projections these drivers environmental over the twenty-first century from Earth system models (ESMs) participating Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) that were forced under CMIP6 Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). Projections...
The second version of the coupled Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM2) is presented and evaluated. NorESM2 based on Community (CESM2) shares with CESM2 computer code infrastructure many system model components. However, employs entirely different ocean biogeochemistry models. atmosphere component (CAM-Nor) includes a module for aerosol physics chemistry, including interactions cloud radiation; additionally, CAM-Nor improvements in formulation local dry moist energy conservation, global...
Abstract. Results from the fully and biogeochemically coupled simulations in which CO2 increases at a rate of 1 % yr−1 (1pctCO2) its preindustrial value are analyzed to quantify magnitude carbon–concentration carbon–climate feedback parameters measure response ocean terrestrial carbon pools changes atmospheric concentration resulting change global climate, respectively. The results based on 11 comprehensive Earth system models most recent (sixth) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6)...
Abstract. Soil is currently thought to be a sink for carbon; however, the response of this increasing levels atmospheric carbon dioxide and climate change uncertain. In study, we analyzed soil organic (SOC) changes from 11 Earth system models (ESMs) contributing simulations Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). We used reduced complexity model based on temperature moisture sensitivities analyze drivers SOC historical high radiative forcing (RCP 8.5) scenarios between 1850...
The carbon cycle is a crucial Earth system component affecting climate and atmospheric composition. response of natural uptake to CO2 change will determine anthropogenic emissions compatible with target pathway. For phase 5 the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), four future representative concentration pathways (RCPs) have been generated by integrated assessment models (IAMs) used as scenarios state-of-the-art models, enabling quantification for complex, process-based models....
Abstract Climate change is expected to modify ecological responses in the ocean, with potential for important effects on ecosystem services provided humankind. Here we address question of how rapidly multiple drivers marine develop future ocean. By analysing an ensemble models find that, within next 15 years, climate change-driven trends emerge from background natural variability 55% ocean and propagate encompass 86% by 2050 under a ‘business-as-usual’ scenario. However, also demonstrate...
Abstract. The recently developed Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM) is employed for simulations contributing to the CMIP5 (Coupled Intercomparison Project phase 5) experiments and fifth assessment report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC-AR5). In this manuscript, we focus evaluating ocean land carbon cycle components NorESM, based preindustrial control historical simulations. Many observed large scale biogeochemical features are reproduced satisfactorily by NorESM. When...
Abstract. A well-documented, publicly available, global data set of surface ocean carbon dioxide (CO2) parameters has been called for by international groups nearly two decades. The Surface Ocean CO2 Atlas (SOCAT) project was initiated the marine science community in 2007 with aim providing a comprehensive, regularly updated, CO2, which had subject to quality control (QC). Many additional data, not yet made public via Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC), were retrieved from...
Mora and colleagues show that ongoing greenhouse gas emissions are likely to have a considerable effect on several biogeochemical properties of the world's oceans, with potentially serious consequences for biodiversity human welfare.
Abstract. The Zero Emissions Commitment (ZEC) is the change in global mean temperature expected to occur following cessation of net CO2 emissions and as such a critical parameter for calculating remaining carbon budget. Model Intercomparison Project (ZECMIP) was established gain better understanding potential magnitude sign ZEC, addition processes that underlie this metric. A total 18 Earth system models both full intermediate complexity participated ZECMIP. All conducted an experiment where...
Abstract. The ocean carbon cycle is a key player in the climate system through its role regulating atmospheric dioxide concentration and other processes that alter Earth's radiative balance. In second version of Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM2), oceanic component has gone numerous updates include, amongst others, improved process representations, increased interactions with atmosphere, additional new tracers. Oceanic dimethyl sulfide (DMS) now prognostically simulated fluxes are...
The Southern Ocean between 30°S and 55°S is a major sink of excess heat anthropogenic carbon, but model projections these sinks remain highly uncertain. Reducing such uncertainties required to effectively guide the development climate mitigation policies for meeting ambitious targets Paris Agreement. Here, we show that large spread in future uptake efficiency cumulative carbon this region are strongly linked models' contemporary stratification. This relationship robust across two generations...
Abstract Accurately predicting future ocean acidification (OA) conditions is crucial for advancing OA research at regional and global scales, guiding society's mitigation adaptation efforts. This study presents a new model‐data fusion product covering 10 surface indicators based on 14 Earth System Models (ESMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), along with three recent observational carbon data products. The include fugacity of dioxide, pH total scale, hydrogen...
Abstract. Decadal-to-century scale trends for a range of marine environmental variables in the upper mesopelagic layer (UML, 100–600 m) are investigated using results from seven Earth System Models forced by high greenhouse gas emission scenario. The models as class represent observation-based distribution oxygen (O2) and carbon dioxide (CO2), albeit major mismatches between simulated values remain individual models. By year 2100 all project an increase SST 2 °C 3 °C, decrease pH saturation...
Abstract. The Surface Ocean CO2 Atlas (SOCAT), an activity of the international marine carbon research community, provides access to synthesis and gridded fCO2 (fugacity dioxide) products for surface oceans. Version 2 SOCAT is update previous release (version 1) with more data (increased from 6.3 million 10.1 water values) extended coverage (from 1968–2007 1968–2011). quality control criteria, while identical in both versions, have been applied strictly version than 1. website...
The performance of 36 models (22 ocean color and 14 biogeochemical circulation (BOGCMs)) that estimate depth‐integrated marine net primary productivity (NPP) was assessed by comparing their output to in situ C data at the Bermuda Atlantic Time series Study (BATS) Hawaii Ocean (HOT) over nearly two decades. Specifically, skill based on models' ability observed mean, variability, trends NPP. At both sites, more than 90% underestimated mean NPP, with average bias BOGCMs being twice models....
The strength of feedbacks between a changing climate and future CO 2 concentrations is uncertain difficult to predict using Earth System Models (ESMs). We analyzed emission‐driven simulations—in which atmospheric levels were computed prognostically—for historical (1850–2005) periods (Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 for 2006–2100) produced by 15 ESMs the Fifth Phase Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Comparison ESM prognostic over period with observations indicated...
Abstract. We report global long-term trends in surface ocean pH using a new data set computed by combining fCO2 observations from the Surface Ocean CO2 Atlas (SOCAT) version 2 with alkalinity estimates based on temperature and salinity. Trends were determined over periods 1981–2011 1991–2011 for of 17 biomes weighted linear least squares method. observe significant decreases ~70% all mean rate decrease 0.0018 ± 0.0004 yr−1 1991–2011. are not able to calculate trend because too few have...
Abstract The increase in atmospheric CO2 over this century depends on the evolution of oceanic air–sea uptake, which will be driven by combined response to rising itself and climate change. Here, future uptake is simulated using an ensemble coupled climate–carbon cycle models. models are emissions from historical data Special Report Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2 high-emission scenario. A linear feedback analysis successfully separates regional (2010–2100) into a CO2-induced component, due...
Abstract. The mid-Pliocene period (3.3 to 3.0 Ma) is known as a warm climate with atmospheric greenhouse gas levels similar the present. As at this time was in equilibrium forcing, it valuable test case better understand long-term response high of gases. In study, we use low resolution version Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM-L) simulate pre-industrial and climate. Comparison simulation observations demonstrates that NorESM-L simulates realistic simulated global mean surface air...
Abstract. Results from the fully-, biogeochemically-, and radiatively-coupled simulations in which CO2 increases at a rate of 1 % per year (1pctCO2) its pre-industrial value are analyzed to quantify magnitude two feedback parameters characterize coupled carbon-climate system. These response ocean terrestrial carbon pools changes atmospheric concentration resulting change global climate. The results based on eight comprehensive Earth system models fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project...