A5040608006- Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations
- Climate variability and models
- Atmospheric and Environmental Gas Dynamics
- Atmospheric Ozone and Climate
- Precipitation Measurement and Analysis
- Numerical methods for differential equations
- Advanced Numerical Methods in Computational Mathematics
- Geophysics and Gravity Measurements
- Atmospheric chemistry and aerosols
- Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones Research
- Wind and Air Flow Studies
- Ionosphere and magnetosphere dynamics
- Earthquake Detection and Analysis
- Computational Fluid Dynamics and Aerodynamics
- Electromagnetic Simulation and Numerical Methods
- Oceanographic and Atmospheric Processes
- Power System Optimization and Stability
- Matrix Theory and Algorithms
- Arctic and Antarctic ice dynamics
- Arctic and Russian Policy Studies
- Model Reduction and Neural Networks
- E-commerce and Technology Innovations
- Scientific Computing and Data Management
- Distributed and Parallel Computing Systems
- Advanced Data Storage Technologies
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
2014-2025
Reading Museum
2024
Met Office
2001-2013
Imperial College London
1995-1998
Abstract Within the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), ECMWF is producing ERA5 reanalysis which, once completed, will embody a detailed record of global atmosphere, land surface and ocean waves from 1950 onwards. This new replaces ERA‐Interim (spanning 1979 onwards) which was started in 2006. based on Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) Cy41r2 operational 2016. thus benefits decade developments model physics, core dynamics data assimilation. In addition to significantly enhanced...
Following previous work on an inherently mass‐conserving semi‐implicit (SI) semi‐Lagrangian (SL) discretization of the two‐dimensional (2D) shallow‐water equations and 2D vertical slice equations, that approach is here extended to 3D deep‐atmosphere, non‐hydrostatic global equations. As with reduced‐dimension versions this model, advantage it preserves same basic structure as a standard, non‐mass‐conserving, SISL version model. Additionally, model simply switchable hydrostatic and/or...
Abstract. A representation of atmospheric chemistry has been included in the Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). The new modules complement aerosol IFS composition, which is named C-IFS. C-IFS supersedes a coupled system chemical transport model (CTM) Model OZone and Related Tracers 3 was two-way to (IFS-MOZART). This paper contains description on-line implementation, an evaluation with observations comparison performance MOZART...
Members in ensemble forecasts differ due to the representations of initial uncertainties and model uncertainties. The inclusion stochastic schemes represent has improved probabilistic skill ECMWF by increasing reliability reducing error mean. Recent progress, challenges future directions regarding at are described this article. coming years likely see a further increase use methods assimilation. This will put demands on used perturb forecast model. An area that is receiving greater attention...
Medium-range weather prediction has become more skillful over recent decades, but forecast centers still suffer from occasional very poor forecasts, which are often referred to as "dropouts" or "busts." This study focuses on European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) day-6 forecasts Europe. Although busts defined by gross scores, bust composites reveal a coherent "Rex type" blocking situation, with high northern Europe and low the Mediterranean. Initial conditions these also...
Abstract. We report on the first multi-year kilometre-scale global coupled simulations using ECMWF's Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) to both NEMO and FESOM ocean–sea ice models, as part of H2020 Next Generation Earth Modelling Systems (nextGEMS) project. focus mainly an unprecedented IFS-FESOM setup, with atmospheric resolution 4.4 km a spatially varying ocean that reaches locally below 5 grid spacing. A shorter simulation 2.8 has also been performed. number shortcomings in original...
Abstract. Climate change mitigation efforts require information on the current greenhouse gas atmospheric concentrations and their sources sinks. Carbon dioxide (CO2) is most abundant anthropogenic gas. Its variability in atmosphere modulated by synergy between weather CO2 surface fluxes, often referred to as weather. It interpreted with help of global or regional numerical transport models, horizontal resolutions ranging from a few hundreds kilometres kilometres. Changes model resolution...
Abstract. We report on the first multi-year km-scale global coupled simulations using ECMWF’s Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) to both NEMO and FESOM ocean-sea ice models, as part of Horizon 2020 Next Generation Earth Modelling Systems (nextGEMS) project. focus mainly two unprecedented IFS-FESOM setups, with an atmospheric resolution 2.8 km 4.4 km, respectively, same spatially varying ocean that reaches locally below 5 grid-spacing. This is enabled by a refactored model code allows for...
Abstract. Various mass fixer algorithms (MFAs) have been implemented in the Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) of European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) to ensure conservation atmospheric tracers within semi-Lagrangian (SL) advection scheme. Emphasis has placed implementing schemes that despite being primarily global nature adjust solution mostly regions where advected field large gradients and therefore interpolation (transport) error is assumed larger. The MFAs tested...
The continuous partial differential equations governing a given physical phenomenon, such as the Navier–Stokes describing fluid motion, must be numerically discretized in space and time order to obtain solution otherwise not readily available closed (i.e., analytic) form. While overall numerical discretization plays an essential role algorithmic efficiency physically-faithful representation of solution, time-integration strategy commonly is one main drivers terms cost-to-solution (e.g.,...
Abstract. A representation of atmospheric chemistry has been included in the Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). The new modules complement aerosol IFS composition, which is named C-IFS. C-IFS supersedes a coupled system, Chemical Transport Model (CTM) OZone and Related chemical Tracers 3 was two-way to (IFS-MOZART). This paper contains description on-line implementation, an evaluation with observations comparison performance MOZART...
The algorithms underlying numerical weather prediction (NWP) and climate models that have been developed in the past few decades face an increasing challenge caused by paradigm shift imposed hardware vendors towards more energy-efficient devices. In order to provide a sustainable path exascale High Performance Computing (HPC), applications become increasingly restricted energy consumption. As result, emerging diverse complex solutions large impact on programming traditionally used NWP...
Abstract. In the simulation of complex multi-scale flows arising in weather and climate modelling, one biggest challenges is to satisfy strict service requirements terms time solution budgetary constraints energy solution, without compromising accuracy stability application. These simulations require algorithms that minimise footprint along with required produce a maintain physically level accuracy, are numerically stable, resilient case hardware failure. The European Centre for Medium-Range...
Abstract. It is a widely established fact that standard semi-Lagrangian advection schemes are highly efficient numerical techniques for simulating the transport of atmospheric tracers. However, as they not formally mass conserving, it essential to use some method restoring conservation in long time range forecasts. A common approach global fixers. This case scheme Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) model used by Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) at European Centre Medium-Range...
Abstract Reducing the numerical precision of forecast model Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) from double to single results in significant computational savings without negatively affecting accuracy. The allow increase vertical resolution operational ensemble forecasts 91 137 levels earlier than anticipated and before next upgrade ECMWF's high‐performance computing facility. This harmonises medium‐range deterministic extended‐range...
Accurate estimation of the position departure points (d.p.) is crucial for accuracy a semi-Lagrangian NWP model. This calculation often performed applying an implicit discretization to kinematic equation solved by fixed-point iteration scheme. A small number iterations typically used, assuming that this sufficient convergence. assumption, derived from past theoretical analysis, revisited here. Analyzing convergence generic d.p. scheme and testing ECMWF Integrated Forecast System (IFS) model,...
Abstract We present a new two‐step temporal discretization of the diffusion equation, which is formally second‐order‐accurate and unconditionally stable. A novel aspect scheme that it monotonically damping: damping rate monotonically‐increasing function coefficient, independent size time step, when coefficient variable being diffused. Furthermore, increases without bound as similarly increases. discuss nonlinear behaviour diffused variable. The designed to maintain any steady‐state solution....
Abstract The extreme forecast index ( EFI ) concept has been applied to the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts ECMWF seasonal forecasts S4 of 2‐m temperature (T2M) and total precipitation (TP) using a novel semi‐analytical technique. Results derived from synthetic data highlight importance large ensemble sizes reduce calculation uncertainty due sampling. This new diagnostic complements current diagnostics as exemplified 2012 warm summer in south central eastern Europe....
Abstract The CO 2 Human Emissions project has generated realistic high-resolution 9 km global simulations for atmospheric carbon tracers referred to as nature runs foster carbon-cycle research applications with current and planned satellite missions, well the surge of in situ observations. Realistic , CH 4 fields can provide a reference assessing impact proposed designs new satellites networks study variability modulated by weather. spanning 2015 are based on Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring...
Abstract. We have implemented a new stratospheric ozone model in the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) system and tested its performance different timescales to assess impact of on meteorological fields. used provide prognostic medium-range long-range (seasonal) experiments, showing feasibility this scheme seamless numerical weather prediction (NWP) modelling approach. find that distribution provided by ECMWF forecast experiments is very good agreement with...
Abstract. We have implemented a new stratospheric ozone model in the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) system, and tested its performance different timescales, to assess impact of on meteorological fields. used provide prognostic medium-range long-range experiments, showing feasibility this scheme seamless NWP modelling approach. find that distribution provided by ECMWF forecast experiments is very good agreement with observations, even unusual conditions such as...
Abstract A predictor–corrector time‐stepping algorithm is used by the Met Office's semi‐implicit semi‐Lagrangian non‐hydrostatic Unified Model. This scheme here extended to include an iterative option, improving performance when large time steps are in highly nonlinear situations. The described, and results from global model tests, which show improvements forecast accuracy, presented. Copyright © 2007 Royal Meteorological Society
Abstract. In the simulation of complex multi-scale flow problems, such as those arising in weather and climate modelling, one biggest challenges is to satisfy operational requirements terms time-to-solution energy-to-solution yet without compromising accuracy stability calculation. These competing factors require development state-of-the-art algorithms that can optimally exploit targeted underlying hardware efficiently deliver extreme computational capabilities typically required forecast...