A5102785049- Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations
- Atmospheric aerosols and clouds
- Climate variability and models
- Atmospheric chemistry and aerosols
- Solar Radiation and Photovoltaics
- Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones Research
- Energy Load and Power Forecasting
- Atmospheric and Environmental Gas Dynamics
- Aeolian processes and effects
- Atmospheric Ozone and Climate
- Earthquake Detection and Analysis
- Forecasting Techniques and Applications
- Photovoltaic System Optimization Techniques
- Climate Change Policy and Economics
- Precipitation Measurement and Analysis
- Wind and Air Flow Studies
- Spacecraft Design and Technology
- Real-time simulation and control systems
- Vehicle emissions and performance
- VLSI and Analog Circuit Testing
- Traffic Prediction and Management Techniques
- GNSS positioning and interference
- Complex Systems and Decision Making
- Gaussian Processes and Bayesian Inference
- Coastal and Marine Dynamics
NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research
2015-2024
Research Applications (United States)
2015-2022
Research Applications Laboratory
2015-2021
NOAA Storm Prediction Center
2020
University of Oklahoma
2020
Cooperative Institute for Mesoscale Meteorological Studies
2020
Cornell University
1999
Karlsruhe University of Education
1999
University of Wrocław
1999
Institute of Computer Science
1999
Microphysical data were collected by the NCAR C‐130 research aircraft during First International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) Regional Experiment Arctic (FIRE ACE). Boundary layer clouds 100 to 400 m thick observed on 11 of 16 missions. The all‐water varied from being adiabatic and homogeneous with monomodal drop spectra subadiabatic inhomogeneous bimodal drizzle. be actively mixing near cloud top. provided a test performance liquid water content (LWC) probes but only in low...
An overview is given of the First ISCCP Regional Experiment Arctic Clouds that was conducted during April–July 1998. The principal goal field experiment to gather data needed examine impact arctic clouds on radiation exchange between surface, atmosphere, and space, study how surface influences evolution boundary layer clouds. observations will be used evaluate improve climate model parameterizations cloud processes, satellite remote sensing characteristics, understanding cloud–radiation...
The NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed (HWT) conducts annual spring forecasting experiments organized by the Storm Prediction Center and National Severe Storms Laboratory to test evaluate emerging scientific concepts technologies for improved analysis prediction of hazardous mesoscale weather. A primary goal is accelerate transfer promising new tools from research operations through use intensive real-time experimental evaluation activities conducted during early summer convective storm period....
Abstract Meaningful verification and evaluation of convection-allowing models requires approaches that do not rely on point-to-point matches forecast observed fields. In this study, one such approach—a beta version the Method for Object-Based Diagnostic Evaluation (MODE) incorporates time dimension [known as MODE time-domain (MODE-TD)]—was applied to 30-h precipitation forecasts from four 4-km grid-spacing members 2010 Storm-Scale Ensemble Forecast system with different microphysics...
Abstract As integration of solar power into the national electric grid rapidly increases, it becomes imperative to improve forecasting this highly variable renewable resource. Thus, a team researchers from public, private, and academic sectors partnered develop assess new system, Sun4Cast. The partnership focused on improving decision-making for utilities independent system operators, ultimately resulting in improved stability cost savings consumers. project followed value chain approach...
The National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) recently updated the comprehensive wind power forecasting system in collaboration with Xcel Energy addressing users’ needs and requirements by enhancing expanding integration between numerical weather prediction machine-learning methods. While original was designed primary focus on day-ahead support of trading, enhanced provides short-term unit commitment economic dispatch, uncertainty quantification speed probabilistic forecasting, extreme...
Abstract The impacts of assimilating radar data and other mesoscale observations in real-time, convection-allowing model forecasts were evaluated during the spring seasons 2008 2009 as part Hazardous Weather Test Bed Spring Experiment activities. In tests a prototype continental U.S.-scale forecast system, focusing primarily on regions with active deep convection at initial time, assimilation these had positive impact. Daily interrogation output by teams modelers, forecasters, verification...
Abstract Forecast verification and evaluation is a critical aspect of forecast development improvement, day-to-day forecasting, the interpretation application forecasts. In recent decades, field has rapidly matured, many new approaches have been developed. However, until recently, stable set modern tools to undertake this important component forecasting not available. The Model Evaluation Tools (MET) was conceived implemented fill gap. MET (...
A persistent contrail in the shape of a racetrack was generated by NASA DC‐8 research aircraft during SUCCESS project. The visible on GOES imagery for six hours. Microphysical measurements collected show that after 40 min core contained mostly small (1 to 20 µm) ice particles concentrations >1000 L −1 , with larger (>300 crystals <10 −6 . In contrast core, periphery about an order magnitude less 1 → µm range and three orders more >300 µm. were columns bullet rosettes, similar...
In August through September 2004 the United Arab Emirates Unified Aerosol Experiment (UAE 2 ) was conducted in southern Arabian Gulf region. We present atmospheric thermodynamic and aerosol data collected on 18 flights by South African Aerocommander aircraft. first few kilometers, we observed high concentrations of both regional dust (from 100 to 300 μ g m −3 background, over 1.5 mg events) ubiquitous sulfate based pollution from Gulf's prevalent petroleum industry (10–100 ). Smoke Europe...
Abstract An airborne study of cloud microphysics provided an opportunity to collect aerosol particles in ambient and updraft conditions natural convection systems for transmission electron microscopy (TEM). Particles were collected simultaneously on lacey carbon calcium‐coated (Ca‐C) TEM grids, providing information particle morphology chemistry a unique record the particle's physical state impact. In total, 22 categories identified, including single, coated, aggregate, droplet types. The...
Abstract The factors responsible for rare summertime rainfall over portions of the United Arab Emirates (UAE), which have not been previously explored in detail, are elucidated with Climate Forecast System Reanalysis and WRF mesoscale model simulations. simulations show associations between active phases southwest Asian monsoon intensification Arabian heat low, leading up to UAE events. Variability location strength low circulation, differs from static portrayal climatological minimum sea...
Abstract Operational agencies face significant challenges related to the verification and evaluation of weather forecasts. These were investigated in a series online workshops polls engaging operational personnel from six countries. Five key themes emerged: inadequate approaches for both existing emerging products; incomplete uncertain observations; difficulties accurately capturing users’ real-world experiences using simplified metrics; poor communication understanding forecasts complex...
Abstract The Habshan industrial site in the United Arab Emirates produces a regional‐scale pollution plume associated with oil and gas processing, discharging high loadings of sulfates chlorides into atmosphere, which interact ambient aerosol population. Aerosol particles trace chemistry at this were studied on two flights summer 2002. Measurements collected along vertical profiles to show changes atmospheric processing particle components. Close outlet stack, concentrations over 10,000 cm...
Abstract U.S. National Weather Service (NWS) forecasters assess and communicate hazardous weather risks, including the likelihood of a threat its impacts. Convection-allowing model (CAM) ensembles offer potential to aid forecasting by depicting atmospheric outcomes, associated uncertainties, at refined space time scales which often occurs. Little is known, however, about what CAM ensemble information needed inform decisions. To address this knowledge gap, participant observations...
Marine boundary layer aerosol size distributions observed during June 1992 are described. Measurements were made from onboard the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration ship Malcolm Baldrige in support of Atlantic Stratocumulus Transition Experiment/Marine Aerosol Gas Exchange field experiment area surrounding 32°N latitude 25°W longitude. obtained three instruments, differential mobility particle sizer, active scattering spectrometer probe, forward used to investigate contributions...
Abstract In this study, object-based verification using the method for diagnostic evaluation (MODE) is used to assess accuracy of cloud-cover forecasts from experimental High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRRx) model during warm and cool seasons. This accomplished by comparing cloud objects identified MODE in observed simulated Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite 10.7- μ m brightness temperatures August 2015 January 2016. The analysis revealed that more a pronounced diurnal cycle...
Abstract Infrared brightness temperatures (BTs) from the Geostationary Observing Environmental Satellite‐16 Advanced Baseline Imager are used to examine ability of several microphysics and planetary boundary layer (PBL) schemes, as well land surface models (LSM) layers, simulate upper‐level clouds. Six parameterization configurations were evaluated. Cloud objects identified using Method for Object‐Based Diagnostic Evaluation (MODE) analyzed object‐based threat score, mean‐error distance,...
Over the past 2 years, U.S. Department of Transportation RITA funded an IntelliDrive vehicle probe data collection test bed in northwest Detroit, Michigan, area. The purpose was to provide infrastructure for both public and private organizations collect, process, generate a robust observation set multiple purposes (e.g., crash avoidance, automated toll services, weather diagnostics). During April 2009, weather-specific field study performed over 11-day period. resulting processed by...
Abstract Tropical cyclone (TC) forecast verification techniques have traditionally focused on track and intensity, as these are some of the most important characteristics TCs often principal concerns operational centers. However, there is a growing need to verify other aspects process-based validation may be increasingly necessary for further intensity improvements well improving communication broad impacts including inland flooding from precipitation. Here we present set TC-focused methods...
Abstract Evaluation of numerical weather prediction (NWP) is critical for both forecasters and researchers. Through such evaluation, can understand the strengths weaknesses NWP guidance, researchers work to improve models. However, evaluating high-resolution convection-allowing models (CAMs) requires unique verification metrics tailored output, particularly when considering extreme events. Metrics used fields evaluated often differ between studies, hindering effort broadly compare CAMs. The...
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR: Edward I. Tollerud, NOAA/ESRL, 325 Broadway, Boulder, CO 80305-3328, E-mail: edward.tollerud@noaa.gov