A5012258726- Mathematical and Theoretical Epidemiology and Ecology Models
- COVID-19 epidemiological studies
- Evolution and Genetic Dynamics
- Influenza Virus Research Studies
- HIV Research and Treatment
- Evolutionary Game Theory and Cooperation
- Viral Infections and Vectors
- Mosquito-borne diseases and control
- Parasite Biology and Host Interactions
- Respiratory viral infections research
- interferon and immune responses
- Animal Ecology and Behavior Studies
- Virology and Viral Diseases
- Monoclonal and Polyclonal Antibodies Research
- Immune Response and Inflammation
- Vector-borne infectious diseases
- HIV-related health complications and treatments
- Virus-based gene therapy research
- Immunodeficiency and Autoimmune Disorders
- Cell Adhesion Molecules Research
- Fractional Differential Equations Solutions
- Bacterial Infections and Vaccines
- HIV/AIDS drug development and treatment
- SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19 Research
- Ecology and Vegetation Dynamics Studies
University of Trento
2015-2025
Xilinx (United States)
2020
University of Lisbon
2017
Fondazione Edmund Mach
2011
University of Turin
1995-2008
University of Messina
2007
Ospedale Amedeo di Savoia
1992-2004
Fondazione Audiologica Varese
1994-1996
University of Pavia
1996
University of Palermo
1992
BackgroundEstimates of the spatiotemporal distribution different mosquito vector species and associated risk transmission arboviruses are key to design adequate policies for preventing local outbreaks reducing number human infections in endemic areas. In this study, we quantified abundance Aedes albopictus aegypti potential three arboviral at an unprecedented resolution areas where no entomological surveillance is available.MethodsWe developed a computational model quantify daily mosquitoes,...
Influenza pandemics in the last century were characterized by successive waves and differences impact timing between different regions, for reasons not clearly understood. The 2009 H1N1 pandemic showed rapid global spread, but with substantial heterogeneity within each hemisphere. Even Europe variation was observed, UK being unique experiencing a major first wave of transmission early summer all other countries having single epidemic autumn/winter, West to East pattern spread. Here we show...
The aim of this paper is to show that a large class epidemic models, with both demography and non-permanent immunity incorporated in rather general manner, can be mathematically formulated as scalar renewal equation for the force infection.
School closure is a non-pharmaceutical intervention that was considered in many national pandemic plans developed prior to the start of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 pandemic, and received considerable attention during event. Here, we retrospectively review compare local experiences with school closures several countries pandemic. Our intention not make systematic country experiences; rather, it present diversity provide examples from perspectives. Data were gathered following meeting, organized by...
Culex pipiens mosquito is a species widely spread across Europe and represents competent vector for many arboviruses such as West Nile virus (WNV), which has been recently circulating in European countries, causing hundreds of human cases. In order to identify the main determinants high heterogeneity Cx. abundance observed Piedmont region (Northwestern Italy) among different seasons, we developed density-dependent stochastic model that takes explicitly into account role played by...
We propose a compartmental model for disease with temporary immunity and secondary infections.From our assumptions on the parameters involved in model, system naturally evolves three time scales.We characterize equilibria of analyze their stability.We find conditions existence two endemic equilibria, some cases which R0 < 1.Then, we unravel interplay scales, providing to foresee whether all or only fast intermediate ones.We conclude numerical simulations bifurcation analysis, complement...
West Nile virus (WNV) transmission was much greater in 2018 than previous seasons Europe. Focusing on Emilia-Romagna region (northern Italy), we analyzed detailed entomological and epidemiological data collected 2013-2018 to quantitatively assess environmental drivers of explore hypotheses better understand why the season substantially different seasons. In particular, WNV detected at least two weeks before observed circulation 2013-2017 a larger number mosquito pools. Transmission resulted...
A model which describes the dynamics of an $S \to I S$ epidemic in age-structured population at steady state is considered. The consists a nonlinear and nonlocal system equations hyperbolic type has already been partly analyzed by other authors. Here, special form for force infection Explicitly computable threshold conditions are given, some regularity results solutions proven. An implicit finite difference method characteristics to approximate used. Optimal error estimates derived from...
Syndromic and virological data are routinely collected by many countries often the only information available in real time. The analysis of surveillance poses statistical challenges that have not yet been addressed. For instance, fraction cases seek healthcare thus detected is unknown. Here, we propose a general framework explicitly takes into account way generated. Our approach couples deterministic mathematical model with description reporting process applied to Italy during 2009–2010...
The rapid invasion and spread of Aedes albopictus (Skuse, 1894) within new continents climatic ranges has created favorable conditions for the emergence tropical arboviral diseases in invaded areas. We used mosquito abundance data from 2014 collected across ten sites northern Italy to calibrate a population model estimate potential imported human cases chikungunya or dengue generate condition their autochthonous transmission absence control interventions. captured intra-year seasonality...
The COVID-19 epidemic is the latest in a long list of pandemics that have affected humankind last century. In this paper, we propose novel mathematical epidemiological model named SUIHTER from names seven compartments it comprises: susceptible uninfected individuals ( S ), undetected (both asymptomatic and symptomatic) infected U isolated I hospitalized H threatened T extinct E ) recovered R ). A suitable parameter calibration based on combined use least-squares method Markov chain Monte...
We study a fast-slow version of an SIRS epidemiological model on homogeneous graphs, obtained through the application moment closure method. use GSPT to model, taking into account that infection period is much shorter than average duration immunity. show dynamics occurs sequence fast and slow flows, can be described 2-dimensional maps that, under some assumptions, approximated as 1-dimensional maps. Using this method, together with numerical bifurcation tools, we give rise periodic...