A5062147820- COVID-19 epidemiological studies
- SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19 Research
- COVID-19 Clinical Research Studies
- Vaccine Coverage and Hesitancy
- COVID-19 Pandemic Impacts
- SARS-CoV-2 detection and testing
- COVID-19 and healthcare impacts
- Viral Infections and Outbreaks Research
- Herpesvirus Infections and Treatments
- Poxvirus research and outbreaks
- COVID-19 and Mental Health
- Bacillus and Francisella bacterial research
- Influenza Virus Research Studies
- Data-Driven Disease Surveillance
- Virology and Viral Diseases
- COVID-19 impact on air quality
- Viral Infections and Vectors
- Disaster Response and Management
- Animal Disease Management and Epidemiology
- COVID-19 Digital Contact Tracing
- Bartonella species infections research
- COVID-19 Impact on Reproduction
- Vector-Borne Animal Diseases
- Immune responses and vaccinations
- Infection Control and Ventilation
Fondazione Bruno Kessler
2017-2024
Kessler Foundation
2021-2024
Regione Lombardia
2022
Istituto Nazionale per le Malattie Infettive Lazzaro Spallanzani
2022
National Institute of Infectious Diseases
2022
Ministero della Salute
2022
Istituto Superiore di Sanità
2020
European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control
2020
Indiana University Bloomington
2020
Northeastern University
2020
In the night of February 20, 2020, first case novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) was confirmed in Lombardy Region, Italy. week that followed, experienced a very rapid increase number cases. We analyzed 5,830 laboratory-confirmed cases to provide epidemiological characterization COVID-19 outbreak Western Country. Epidemiological data were collected through standardized interviews and their close contacts. demographic backgrounds, dates symptom onset, clinical features, respiratory tract...
In the night of February 20, 2020, first epidemic novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outside Asia was uncovered by identification its patient in Lombardy region, Italy. following weeks, experienced a sudden increase number ascertained infections and strict measures were imposed to contain spread.We analyzed official records cases occurred characterize epidemiology SARS-CoV-2 during early phase outbreak. A line list laboratory-confirmed set up later retrospectively consolidated, using...
Background On 20 February 2020, a locally acquired coronavirus disease (COVID-19) case was detected in Lombardy, Italy. This the first signal of ongoing transmission severe acute respiratory syndrome 2 (SARS-CoV-2) country. The number cases Italy increased rapidly and country became Europe to experience SARS-CoV-2 outbreak. Aim Our aim describe epidemiology dynamics COVID-19 amid control measures. Methods We analysed all RT-PCR-confirmed reported national integrated surveillance system until...
Solid estimates of the risk developing symptoms and progressing to critical disease in individuals infected with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) are key interpreting 2019 (COVID-19) dynamics, identifying settings segments population where transmission is more likely remain undetected, defining effective control strategies.To estimate association age likelihood illness after SARS-CoV-2 infection.This cohort study analyzed quarantined case contacts, identified...
COVID-19 vaccination is being conducted in over 200 countries and regions to control SARS-CoV-2 transmission return a pre-pandemic lifestyle. However, understanding when non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) can be lifted as immunity builds up remains key question for policy makers. To address this, we built data-driven model of China. We estimated that, prevent the escalation local outbreaks widespread epidemics, stringent NPIs need remain place at least one year after start vaccination....
We analyzed the first 255 PCR-confirmed cases of monkeypox in Italy 2022. Preliminary estimates indicate mean incubation period 9.1 (95% CI 6.5-10.9) days, generation time 12.5 7.5-17.3) and reproduction number among men who have sex with 2.43 1.82-3.26).
BackgroundEstimates of the spatiotemporal distribution different mosquito vector species and associated risk transmission arboviruses are key to design adequate policies for preventing local outbreaks reducing number human infections in endemic areas. In this study, we quantified abundance Aedes albopictus aegypti potential three arboviral at an unprecedented resolution areas where no entomological surveillance is available.MethodsWe developed a computational model quantify daily mosquitoes,...
SUMMARY Background In February 2020, a locally-acquired COVID-19 case was detected in Lombardia, Italy. This the first signal of ongoing transmission SARS-CoV-2 country. The outbreak rapidly escalated to national level epidemic, amid WHO declaration pandemic. Methods We analysed data from case-based integrated surveillance system all RT-PCR confirmed infections as March 24 th collected Italian regions and autonomous provinces. Here we provide descriptive epidemiological summary on 62,843...
Significance We use a mathematical model to evaluate the Italian exit strategy after lockdown imposed against COVID-19 epidemics, comparing it number of alternative scenarios. highlight that successful reopening requires two critical conditions: low value reproduction and incidence infection. The first is needed allow some margin for expansion lifting restrictions; second because level will be maintained approximately constant has grown values close one. Furthermore, we suggest that, even...
On March 11, 2020, Italy imposed a national lockdown to curtail the spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2. We estimate that, 14 days after lockdown, net reproduction number had dropped below 1 and remained stable at »0.76 (95% CI 0.67-0.85) in all regions for >3 following weeks.
We analyzed 5,484 close contacts of COVID-19 cases from Italy, all them tested for SARS-CoV-2 infection. found an infection fatality ratio 2.2% (95%CI 1.69-2.81%) and identified male sex, age >70 years, cardiovascular comorbidities, early in the epidemics as risk factors death.
Identifying health care settings and professionals at increased risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection is crucial to defining appropriate strategies, resource allocation, protocols protect workers (HCWs) patients. Moreover, such information decrease the that HCWs facilities become amplifiers for transmission in community.To assess association different professional categories operational units, including in-hospital wards, outpatient facilities, territorial departments, with seroprevalence odds...
Abstract To counter the second COVID-19 wave in autumn 2020, Italian government introduced a system of physical distancing measures organized progressively restrictive tiers (coded as yellow, orange, and red) imposed on regional basis according to real-time epidemiological risk assessments. We leverage data from integrated surveillance publicly available mobility evaluate impact three-tiered restriction human activities, SARS-CoV-2 transmissibility hospitalization burden Italy. The...
Starting from the final months of 2021, SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant expanded globally, swiftly replacing Delta, that was dominant at time. Many uncertainties remain about epidemiology Omicron; here, we aim to estimate its generation
Abstract There are contrasting results concerning the effect of reactive school closure on SARS-CoV-2 transmission. To shed light this controversy, we developed a data-driven computational model We found that by reactively closing classes based syndromic surveillance, infections reduced no more than 17.3% (95%CI: 8.0–26.8%), due to low probability timely identification in young population. thus investigated an alternative triggering mechanism repeated screening students using antigen tests....
Abstract In 2022, a global outbreak of mpox occurred, predominantly impacting men who have sex with (MSM). The rapid decline this epidemic is yet to be fully understood. We investigated the Italian by means an individual-based mathematical model calibrated surveillance data. accounts for transmission within MSM sexual contact network, in recreational and clubs attended MSM, households. indicate strong spontaneous reduction (61-87%) affected communities as possible driving factor cases....
Sustained coronavirus disease (COVID-19) transmission is ongoing in Italy, with 7,375 reported cases and 366 deaths by 8 March 2020. We provide a model-based evaluation of patient records from Lombardy, predicting the impact an uncontrolled epidemic on healthcare system. It has potential to cause more than 250,039 (95% credible interval (CrI): 147,717–459,890) within 3 weeks, including 37,194 CrI: 22,250–67,632) patients requiring intensive care. Aggressive containment strategies are required.
COVID-19 vaccination is allowing a progressive release of restrictions worldwide. Using mathematical model, we assess the impact in Italy since December 27, 2020 and evaluate prospects for societal reopening after emergence Delta variant. We estimate that by June 30, 2021, allowed resumption about half pre-pandemic social contacts. In absence vaccination, same number cases obtained resuming only one third contacts, with 12,100 (95% CI: 6,600-21,000) extra deaths (+27%; 95% 15-47%)....
Abstract During the spring of 2020, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) epidemic caused an unprecedented demand for intensive-care resources in Lombardy region Italy. Using data on 43,538 hospitalized patients admitted between February 21 and July 12, we evaluated variations intensive care unit (ICU) admissions mortality over course 3 periods: early phase pandemic (February 21–March 13), period highest pressure health-care system (March 14–April 25, when numbers COVID-19 exceeded prepandemic...
Background The SARS-CoV-2 variant of concern Omicron was first detected in Italy November 2021. Aim To comprehensively describe spread the 2 subsequent months and its impact on overall circulation at population level. Methods We analyse data from four genomic surveys conducted across country between December 2021 January 2022. Combining sequencing results with epidemiological records collated by National Integrated Surveillance System, reproductive number exponential growth rate are...
Varicella zoster virus (VZV) causes varicella upon first exposure and may reactivate later in life into herpes (HZ), with a risk that is thought to be reduced by re-exposures VZV. Given the decades-long time scales of reactivation its dependence on accumulation re-exposure episodes, adopting long-term perspective useful correctly interpret current epidemiological trends In this study, we investigate possible impact demographic changes HZ Spain, using an age-structured mathematical model...
BackgroundSeveral SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern (VOC) have emerged through 2020 and 2021. There is need for tools to estimate the relative transmissibility emerging with respect circulating strains.AimWe aimed assess prevalence co-circulating VOC in Italy their transmissibility.MethodsWe conducted two genomic surveillance surveys on 18 February March 2021 across whole Italian territory covering 3,243 clinical samples developed a mathematical model that describes dynamics strains.ResultsThe...
Abstract Quantitative information on epidemiological quantities such as the incubation period and generation time of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variants is scarce. We analysed a dataset collected during contact tracing activities in province Reggio Emilia, Italy, throughout 2021. determined distributions for Alpha Delta using negative polymerase chain reaction tests date last exposure from 282 symptomatic cases. estimated intrinsic Bayesian inference...
After a rapid upsurge of COVID-19 cases in Italy during the fall 2020, government introduced three-tiered restriction system aimed at increasing physical distancing. The Ministry Health, after periodic epidemiological risk assessments, assigned tier to each 21 Italian regions and autonomous provinces. It is still unclear what extent these different sets measures altered number daily interactions social mixing patterns.We conducted survey between July 2020 March 2021 monitor changes contact...