Lagged explanatory variables are commonly used in political science response to endogeneity concerns observational data. There exist surprisingly few formal analyses or theoretical results, however, that establish whether lagged effective surmounting and, if so, under what conditions. We show lagging as a moves the channel through which biases parameter estimates, supplementing “selection on observables” assumption with an equally untestable “no dynamics among unobservables” assumption....

To study the U.S. public's health behaviors, attitudes, and policy opinions about COVID-19 in earliest weeks of national crisis (March 20-23, 2020).We designed fielded an original representative survey 3,000 American adults between March 2020 to collect data on a battery 38 health-related government preferences response worries pandemic. We test for partisan differences related attitudes measured three different ways: party affiliation, intended Presidential vote, self-placed ideological...

The institutional turn in comparative authoritarianism has generated wide interest. This article reviews three prominent books on authoritarian institutions and their central theoretical propositions about the origins, functions effects of dominant party rule. Two critical perspectives political institutions, one based rationalist theories design other a social conflict theory economy, suggest that are epiphenomenal more fundamental political, and/or economic relations. Such approaches have...

Aerial bombardment has been an important component of counterinsurgency practice since shortly after it became a viable military technology in the early twentieth century. Due to nature insurgency, bombing frequently occurs and around settled areas, consequently tends generate many civilian casualties. However, effectiveness areas as tactic remains disputed. Using data disaggregated level smallest population unit measured at multiple points time, this article examines effect aerial on...

This article reviews the literature on politics of bureaucracy in developing world, with a focus service delivery and bureaucratic performance. We survey classic topics themes such as developmental state, principal–agent relations, efficient grease hypothesis, we link them to new research findings political science, sociology, economics. identify concept embeddedness an important yet still underexplored framework that cuts across disciplines may be used understand performance delivery....

Individual choices made during the 2020 coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic shape course of virus's spread and risks facing human populations. Yet response to COVID-19 in United States has been deeply political, elite messaging from administration President Donald J. Trump may have produced a differential mass public health among his supporters. To estimate extent these differences, we conducted an original survey 3,000 American citizens between March 20-23 collect data on behavior, attitudes,...

Economic Crises and the Breakdown of Authoritarian Regimes: Indonesia Malaysia in Comparative Perspective. By Thomas B. Pepinsky. New York: Cambridge University Press, 2009. Pp. 326. Pepinsky' s book is focused on a simple question - why did have such different political outcomes aftermath 1997-98 financial crisis? In seeking to answer it, he aims shed light how authoritarian regimes respond changes their economic fortunes and, particular, crises. Pepinsky contends that despite some...

This letter compares the performance of multiple imputation and listwise deletion using a simulation approach. The focus is on data that are “missing not at random” (MNAR), in which case both known to be biased. In these simulations, yields results frequently more biased, less efficient, with worse coverage than when MNAR. even very strong correlations between fully observed variables missing values, such nearly random.” These recommend caution comparing from deletion, true generating...

To many observers across the political spectrum, American democracy appears under threat. What does Trump presidency portend for politics? How much confidence should we have in capacity of institutions to withstand this threat? We argue that understanding what is uniquely threatening requires looking beyond particulars and his presidency. Instead, it demands a historical comparative perspective on politics. Drawing insights from fields politics development, Trump’s election represents...

Indonesia's 1999 decentralization law gave local governments in Indonesia an unprecedented opportunity to adopt prodevelopment policies. In this article, we study whether has fact generated improved economic performance Indonesia. Using a synthetic case control methodology, argue that Indonesian had no discernable effect on the country's national-level performance. To explain why not, use subnational data probe two political economy mechanisms—interjurisdictional competition and democratic...

Across the Muslim world, Islamic political parties and social organizations have capitalized upon economic grievances to win votes popular support. But existing research has been unable disentangle role of party ideology from programmatic appeals services in explaining these parties' We argue that platforms function as informational shortcuts voters, only confer a advantage when voters are uncertain about policies. Using series experiments embedded an original nationwide survey Indonesia, we...

Abstract This article introduces a quantitative approach to modeling language shift in communities with millions of speakers. Using Indonesia as case study, and employing large body data from the Indonesian population census, we document how factors such urbanization, ethnicity, economic development, gender, religion correlate local languages (Javanese, Sundanese, etc.) national language, Bahasa Indonesia. Our findings inform ongoing research on sociological foundations across both small...

This article reviews the changing status of single-country research in comparative politics, a field defined by concept comparison. An analysis published top general interest and politics journals reveals that has evolved from an emphasis on description theory generation to hypothesis testing design. change is result shifting preferences for internal versus external validity combined with quantitative causal inference revolutions social sciences. A consequence this shift substantive focus...

Abstract Analyses of embedded liberalism have focused overwhelmingly on trade in goods and capital, to the exclusion migration. We argue that much as capital controls were essential components liberal compromise, so too restrictions democratic social rights labor migrants. Generous welfare programs labor-receiving countries thrived alongside inclusionary immigration policies, but this balanced arrangement was only tenable if migrants politically excluded their destination countries. That is,...

Malaysia's twelfth general elections, held on March 8, 2008, dealt a stunning blow to the incumbent Barisan Nasional regime. For first time since 1969, coalition did not receive its customary two-thirds majority in lower house of parliament. Moreover, opposition was able form governments five out eleven peninsular Malaysian states. This article uses electoral, economic, and demographic data test number potential explanations for these outcomes. Evidence indicates that regime's decreased is...

Contemporary Southeast Asia (CSEA) is one of the ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute"s flagship publications. Now in its fourth decade publication, CSEA has succeeded building up an international reputation as Asia"s premier academic journals. The aim peer reviewed journal to provide subscribers with date and in-depth analysis critical trends developments wider Asia-Pacific region. primary focus on issues related domestic politics Asian countries, regional architecture community building,...

In 2015, Comparative Political Studies embarked on a landmark pilot study in research transparency the social sciences. The editors issued an open call for submissions of manuscripts that contained no mention their actual results, incentivizing reviewers to evaluate based theoretical contributions, designs, and analysis plans. three papers this special issue are result process began with 19 submissions. article, we describe rationale pilot, expressly articulating practices preregistration...

Across the social sciences, lagged explanatory variables are a common strategy to confront challenges causal identification using observational data. We show that "lag identification" — use of solve endogeneity problems is an illusion: lagging independent merely moves channel through which biases estimates, replacing "selection on observables" assumption with equally untestable "no dynamics among unobservables" assumption. build our argument intuitively directed acyclic graphs, then provide...

In the past fifteen years, Southeast Asian electoral democracies have seen illiberal politicians contest—and in some cases win—democratic elections. The presidency of Rodrigo Duterte Philippines, whose government has overseen extrajudicial killings while celebrating its promise to provide order and stability Philippine politics, is but one recent example. Voting against disorder a threat democracy throughout Asia, even countries such as Indonesia where been defeated competitive When...

Cross-nationally, urbanization is associated with the decline of minority languages and a shift towards national official languages. But mechanisms that link language remain poorly understood. We use administrative data from Indonesia — large, ethnically linguistically diverse, rapidly urbanizing country to examine how ethnic diversity shapes in context urbanization. find homogenous regions, has no relationship shift. By contrast, consistently greater probability speaking Indonesian both...

The COVID-19 pandemic has affected the lives of all Americans, but severity been experienced unevenly across space and time. Some states saw sharp rises in cases early March, whereas case counts rose much later rest country. In this article, we examine relationship between exposure to citizens' views on what type measures are required deal with crises how experience is associated greater partisan polarization. We find consistent evidence divergence pandemic-response policy preferences first...

A wealth of recent research in comparative politics examines how spatial variation historical conditions shapes modern political outcomes. In an article the American Political Science Review , Homola, Pereira, and Tavits argue that Germans who live nearer to former Nazi concentration camps are more likely display out-group intolerance. Clarifying conceptual foundations posttreatment bias reviewing record on postwar state creation Germany, we state-level differences confound relationship...