A5062875334- Political Conflict and Governance
- Populism, Right-Wing Movements
- Social Policy and Reform Studies
- Global Peace and Security Dynamics
- International Development and Aid
- Economic Sanctions and International Relations
- Advanced Causal Inference Techniques
- Peacebuilding and International Security
- Qualitative Comparative Analysis Research
- Corruption and Economic Development
- Political Philosophy and Ethics
- Electoral Systems and Political Participation
- Public Administration and Political Analysis
- Social and Intergroup Psychology
- Religion and Society Interactions
- Data Analysis with R
- Meta-analysis and systematic reviews
- Policy Transfer and Learning
- Forecasting Techniques and Applications
- Cultural Differences and Values
- Scientific Computing and Data Management
- Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI)
- Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics
- demographic modeling and climate adaptation
- Bayesian Modeling and Causal Inference
Peace Research Institute Frankfurt
2019-2025
Goethe University Frankfurt
2023-2024
University of Bremen
2021
University of Leeds
2021
Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München
2021
University of Duisburg-Essen
2016-2019
University of Cologne
2019
Institute of Political Science
2016
Universität Greifswald
2012-2013
This study explores how researchers’ analytical choices affect the reliability of scientific findings. Most discussions problems in science focus on systematic biases. We broaden lens to emphasize idiosyncrasy conscious and unconscious decisions that researchers make during data analysis. coordinated 161 73 research teams observed their as they used same independently test prominent social hypothesis: greater immigration reduces support for policies among public. In this typical case...
Research suggests that nonviolent resistance (NVR) campaigns are more successful in deposing dictators than armed rebellions. However, ousting is only the first step process of democratization. After an autocratic regime, societies enter a transition phase where they must learn to consolidate gains democracy and bargain about new rules democratic regime. But even if free, fair, competitive elections held, indicating rule, uncertainty its stability remains salient. In period follows, either...
This study investigates researcher variability in computational reproduction, an activity for which it is least expected. Eighty-five independent teams attempted numerical replication of results from original policy preferences and immigration. Reproduction were randomly grouped into a ‘transparent group’ receiving code or ‘opaque only method description no code. The transparent group mostly verified (95.7% same sign p -value cutoff), while the opaque had less success (89.3%). Second-decimal...
Relations between the US and its European partners are at a post-World War II low. What impact will this ongoing rift have on settlement of Russo-Ukrainian War? We offer original experimental evidence from conjoint ‘scenario exercise’ run with 53 attendees highly exclusive Munich Security Conference (MSC) in 2025 (n = 147 unique choice task answers). Our experiment presented randomized scenarios that differed across six key issues. MSC participants – whom we use as proxies for ‘traditional...
This study examines how citizens update their foreign policy preferences, focusing on the role of effectiveness in shaping support for economic sanctions. Economic sanctions often require sustained public support, which depends perceptions effectiveness. Using a two-stage experimental design, we investigate individuals’ preferences evolve when presented with information about The covers three major sanctioning countries—the UK, Germany, and US—and four hypothetical scenarios. Our results...
Previous research has shown that successful non-violent resistance (NVR) campaigns promote democracy compared with violent revolutions and top-down liberalization. However, to date not examined the character quality of democratic regimes following NVR campaigns, or evaluated mechanisms produce this effect. In paper, we address gap by analyzing effect on democracy, using Polyarchy index from Varieties Democracies project its sub-components: (1) elected executive; (2) free fair elections; (3)...
Abstract In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, a majority of countries worldwide have introduced severe limitations on freedom assembly, if not an outright lockdown, in many cases complemented by restrictions further civil and political rights. Although were generally considered necessary save lives protect health care systems from overburdening, they also pose risk government overreach, that is, governments may use pandemic as convenient opportunity justification impose for purposes. this...
This study explores how researchers’ analytical choices affect the reliability of scientific findings. Most discussions problems in science focus on systematic biases. We broaden lens to include conscious and unconscious decisions that researchers make during data analysis may lead diverging results. coordinated 161 73 research teams observed their as they used same independently test prominent social hypothesis: greater immigration reduces support for policies among public. In this typical...
Abstract In post-colonial Africa many rulers relied on so called ‘divide-and-rule’ politics to survive in office. The concept of divide-and-rule describes a strategy for sustain power by exploiting coordination problems among potential rivals. Rulers can break up rival concentrations making discriminatory offers/sanctions or simply destroying communication channels this paper I will study the consequences using original data cabinet changes. empirical analysis focus question whether shuffles...
During the first year of COVID-19 pandemic, governments across globe implemented severe restrictions civic freedoms to contain spread virus. The global health emergency posed risk seizing pandemic as a window opportunity curb (potential) challenges their power, thereby reinforcing ongoing, worldwide trend shrinking spaces. In this article, we investigate whether and how used justification impose freedom expression. Drawing on scholarship causes space restrictions, argue that responded by...
Abstract The United Nations Security Council (UNSC) is the Nations' most powerful institutional body, charged with “primary responsibility for maintenance of international peace and security.” main instrument through which asserts this power its resolutions, specifically by using resolution text to attribute responsibility. UNSC uses language assign tasks, identify accountability under law, or reflect Council's normative interpretation political principles. Yet we lack a comprehensive...
Abstract Previous research has shown that nonviolent resistance (NVR) campaigns are beneficial for democratization. However, to date not considered whether revolutions succeed long term in bringing about democratic consolidation. In this paper, I address gap by analyzing the effect of NVR on consolidation, using data Huntington’s consolidation criteria two peaceful turnovers power. The results suggest initiating a transition through is necessarily achieving first turnover given regime...
In empirical research, scholars can choose between an exploratory causes-of-effects analysis, a confirmatory effects-of-causes approach, or mechanism-of-effects analysis that be either confirmatory. Understanding the choice approaches is important for two reasons. First, added value of each approach depends on how much known about phenomenon interest at time analysis. Second, because specializations methods, there are benefits to division labor researchers who have expertise in application...
Does public opinion on international affairs affect elites’ policy preferences? Most research assumes that it does, but this key assumption is difficult to test empirically given limited access elite decisionmakers. We examine responsiveness sanctioning Russia during the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine. fielded a pre-registered experiment within TRIP survey US foreign practitioners, offering rare opportunity for fairly large (N = 253). used contemporary polling highly supportive increasing...
This paper reports findings from a crowdsourced replication. Eighty-five independent teams attempted computational replication of results reported in an original study policy preferences and immigration by fitting the same statistical models to data. The involved experimental condition. Random assignment put participating into either transparent group that received code, or opaque receiving only methods section, rough description no code. mostly verified numerical with sign p-value threshold...
In an era of mass migration, social scientists, populist parties and movements raise concerns over the future immigration-destination societies. What impacts does this have on policy solidarity? Comparative cross-national research, relying mostly secondary data, has findings in different directions. There is a threat selective model reporting lack replicability. The heterogeneity countries obscures attempts to clearly define data-generating models. P-hacking HARKing lurk among standard...
Abstract Does public opinion on international affairs affect elites’ policy preferences? Most research assumes that it does, but this key assumption is difficult to test empirically given limited access elite decision-makers. We examine responsiveness sanctioning Russia during the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine. fielded a preregistered experiment within TRIP survey US foreign practitioners, offering rare opportunity for fairly large ($N = 253$). used contemporary polling highly supportive...
How do dramatic international crisis events change ordinary citizens’ foreign policy preferences, and how long might these changes last? Scholarship on public opinion has found that the public’s views are generally remarkably consistent coherent. However, due to relative rarity of extreme events, evidence they affect preferences is scare. We present experimental from February 24, 2022 Russian invasion Ukraine, a watershed moment for post-World War II order will likely shape global economic...
Cultural bias means individuals judge and interpret a phenomenon according to values that are inherent in their own culture. The same event may be perceived differently by with different cultural backgrounds. This study systematically tests for the presence of differences perception foreign policy events. Using web survey split-sample Chinese US experts, four domains explored: sanctions; border violations; aid; trade agreements. findings indicate general agreement between experts...