ABSTRACT We provide evidence that many narrative shocks used by prominent literature display some persistence. show the two leading methods to estimate impulse responses an independently identified shock (local projections and distributed lag models) treat persistence differently, hence identifying different objects. propose corrections re‐establish equivalence between local models, providing applied researchers with guidance their desired object of interest. apply these well‐known empirical...

Direct democracy is spreading across the world, but little known about its effects on policy. I provide evidence from a unique scenario. In Spain, national law determines that municipalities follow either direct or representative democracy, depending their population. Regression discontinuity estimates indicate leads to smaller government, reducing public spending by around 8%. Public revenue decreases similar amount and, therefore, there no effect budget deficits. These findings can be...

I exploit the unique institutional framework of Spanish local elections, where municipalities follow different electoral systems depending on their population size, as mandated by a national law. Using regression discontinuity design, compare turnout under closed-list proportional representation and an open-list, plurality-at-large system voters can vote for individual candidates from same or party lists. find that open-list increases between one two percentage points. The results suggest...

How do voters react to large shocks that are (mostly) outside the control of politicians? We address this question by studying electoral effects wildfires in Spain during 1983-2011. Using a difference-in-difference strategy, we find accidental fire up nine months ahead local election increases incumbent party’s vote share almost 8 percentage points. rally-behind-the-leader effect best explains results. A simple formalization mechanism yields an implication – should be larger for stronger...

Abstract We study gender differences in the evaluation of submissions to economics conferences. Using data on more than 9,000 from Annual Congress European Economic Association (2015–17), Meeting Spanish (2012–17) and Spring Young Economists (2018), we find that all‐female‐authored papers are 3.3% points (p.p.), or 6.8%, less likely be accepted all‐male‐authored papers. The estimated gap ranges 5.4 p.p. (95% CI: 2.5 p.p., 8.3 p.p.) 2.9 (0 5.8 p.p.). This is present after controlling for...

Abstract Using data from social security records and an event study approach, we estimate the child penalty in Spain, looking at disparities for women men across different labor outcomes following birth of first child. Our findings show that, year after is born, mothers’ annual earnings drop by 11% while men’s remain unchanged. The gender gap even larger 10 years birth. long-run equals 28%, similar to those found Denmark, Finland, Sweden or USA. In addition, identify channels that may drive...

We study how electoral systems affect the presence of women in politics using a model which both voters and parties might have gender bias. apply to Spanish municipal elections, national law mandates that municipalities follow one two different systems: closed-list system pick party-list, or an open-list system, individual candidates. Using regression discontinuity design, we find increases share among candidates councilors by 2.5 percentage points, mayors 4.3 points. Our explains these...

We show that several shocks identified without restrictions from a model, and frequently used in the empirical literature, display some persistence. demonstrate two leading methods to recover impulse responses (moving average representations local projections) treat persistence differently, hence identifying different objects. In particular, standard projections identify include an effect due of shock, while moving implicitly account for it. propose re-establish equivalence between...

I exploit the unique institutional framework of Spanish local elections, where municipalities follow different electoral systems depending on their population size, as mandated by a national law. Using regression discontinuity design, compare turnout under closed list proportional representation and an open list, plurality-at-large system voters can vote for individual candidates from same or party-lists. find that increases between 1 2 percentage points. The results suggest systems, which...

How do voters react to shocks that are outside the control of politicians? We address this question by studying electoral impact wildfires in Spain period 1983-2014. This context allows us study (a) effects fires at different locations and times, as opposed a specific disaster; (b) heterogeneous time relative election day; (c) on elections for all levels government. Using difference-in-difference strategy, we find an accidental fire up 9 months ahead municipal increases incumbent party’s...

Abstract Theories of multilateral bargaining and coalition formation applied to legislatures predict that parties’ seat shares determine their power. We present findings are difficult reconcile with this prediction, but consistent a norm prescribing “the most voted party should form the government”. first case studies from several countries regression discontinuity design-based evidence twenty-eight national European parliaments. then focus on 2,898 Spanish municipal elections in which two...

This article exploits two newspaper archives to track economic policy uncertainty in Spain from 1905–1945. We find that the outbreak of Civil War 1936 was anticipated by a striking upward level shift both newspapers. study reasons for this through natural language processing method, which allows us leverage expert opinion specific issues our archives. strong empirical link between increasing and rise divisive political like socio-economic conflict. holds even when exploiting content...

Using two novel online surveys collected in May and November 2020, we study the consequences of COVID-19 pandemic on Spanish households. We document a large negative effect household income. By average individual lived that had lost 16% their pre-pandemic monthly Furthermore, this drop was highly unequal: while households richest quintile 6.8% income, those poorest 27%. also deepened gender-income gap: average, women experienced three-percentage point larger income loss than men. While is...

We investigate whether corruption amplifies the political effects of economic crises. Using Spanish municipal-level data and a difference-in-difference strategy, we find that local unemployment shocks experienced during Great Recession (2008–2015) increased fragmentation. This effect was four times larger in municipalities exposed to malfeasance than without history corruption. bolster this evidence by showing that, conditional on province population strata fixed effects, there is no...

Abstract I study the effects of direct democracy on economic policy in a novel setting. In Spain, national law determines that municipalities follow either or representative democracy, depending their population size. Using fixed-effect regression discontinuity design, find leads to smaller government, reducing public spending by around 8 percent. Revenues decrease similar amount and, therefore, there is no effect budget deficits. These findings can be explained model which allows voters...

Using two novel online surveys collected in May and November 2020, we study the consequences of first stages COVID-19 pandemic on Spanish households. We document a large negative effect household income. By 2020 average individual lived that had lost 16% their pre-pandemic monthly Furthermore, this drop was highly unequal: while households richest quintile 6.8% income, those poorest 27%. also deepened gender-income gap: average, women experienced three-percentage-point larger income loss...

We study gender differences in the evaluation of submissions to economics conferences. Using data from Annual Congress European Economic Association (2015-2017), Meeting Spanish (2012-2017), and Spring Young Economists (2017), we find that all-female-authored papers are 3.3 p.p. (6.8%) less likely be accepted than all-male-authored papers. This gap is present after controlling for number authors paper; referee fixed effects; field; cites authors’ previous publication record, affiliations,...

We investigate whether corruption amplifies the political effects of economic crises. Using Spanish municipal-level data and a difference-in-difference strategy, we find that local unemployment shocks experienced during Great Recession (2008-2015) increased fragmentation. This effect was four times larger in municipalities exposed to malfeasance than without history corruption. bolster this evidence by showing that, conditional on province population-strata fixed effects, there is no...

We estimate the employment effect of a large fiscal stimulus in Spain (PlanE), which national government transferred funds to municipalities carry out local investment projects. Using difference-in-difference approach by exploiting variation timing execution projects across municipalities, we find that 100,000 euros reduced unemployment 0.62 jobs per year. allow for possible spatial effects, i.e. propagation neighboring and these are sizable, representing 8.4% “local” effect. also present...

Abstract We estimate the unemployment effects of a large fiscal stimulus in Spain ( Plan Español para el Estímulo de la Economía y Empleo , Spanish for Stimulus Economy and Employment, commonly known as E), which national government transferred funds to municipalities carry out local investment projects. Using difference‐in‐difference approach by exploiting variation timing execution projects across municipalities, we find that 100,000 euros reduced 0.74 job‐years. allow possible spatial...