Urbanization has traditionally been understood as a byproduct of economic development, but this explanatory framework fails to account for the phenomenon “urbanization without growth” observed in sub‐Saharan Africa throughout 1980s and 1990s. In light apparent anomaly, I argue that urbanization is better global historical process driven by population dynamics associated with technological institutional innovations have substantially improved disease control food security urban settlements...

An increasing number of cities around the world are engaging with UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). How and why? We provide a critical reflection on SDG 'localization' derived from an action research project in city Bristol, UK. Through partnership local government non-governmental stakeholders we supported integration SDGs into policy urban monitoring efforts. Embedding making was largely process 'translation', which achieved through form 'embedded advocacy' by university-city...

High-resolution global flood risk maps are increasingly used to inform disaster planning and response, particularly in lower income countries with limited data or capacity. However, current approaches do not adequately account for spatial variation social vulnerability, which is a key determinant of outcomes exposed populations. Here we integrate annual average exceedance probability estimates from high-resolution fluvial model gridded population poverty create vulnerability-adjusted index...

Why are some countries more prone to social violence than others? Despite the fact that annual deaths due homicides worldwide outnumber those organized armed conflict by a factor of roughly 3 1, this question has received very little attention from and development specialists in recent years. As modest first step addressing gap literature we draw together insights criminology literatures develop model accounts for both political-institutional socio-economic factors. While there is an...

We are living through a global urban transition, but the timing of this transition has varied significantly across countries and regions. This geographic variation in matters, both theoretically substantively. Yet contemporary debates on urbanism hinge primarily questions universalism versus particularism, at expense attention to how history geography collide shape processes. Specifically, they neglect critical fact that urbanisation many today is late within context transition. argue...

Abstract The stylized facts of Africa's urban transition highlight the limitations traditional economic models urbanization. Recent research has provided evidence that demographic rather than processes provide a more compelling explanation for observed trends in region. In particular, mortality decline appears to be both necessary and sufficient condition urbanization occur key driver growth broadly. accumulation survey data over past few decades development new geospatial datasets...

Nigeria contains some of Africa’s oldest and newest cities, hosts five the 30 largest urban settlements on continent, is estimated to have biggest population continent. Yet many basic ‘facts’ about spatial-demographic trends in been contested. Most recently, an article published World Development 2012 claimed that urbanisation had stalled Nigeria. In effort establish explain stylised facts Nigeria’s transition we analyse demographic spatial drawing diverse sources, including censuses,...

In the previous two reports in this series, we discussed history and current status of quantitative geography. final report, focus on future. We argue that geographers are most helpful when can simplify difficult problems using our distinct domain expertise. To do this, must clarify theory underpinning core conceptual Then, examine social forces shaping future conclude with criteria for how geography might succeed addressing these challenges.

The global urban population is expected to grow by 2.5 billion over the next three decades, and 90% of this growth will occur in African Asian countries. Urban expansion these regions often characterised ‘informal urbanization’ whereby households self-build without planning permission contexts ambiguous, insecure or disputed property rights. Despite scale informal urbanization, it has received little attention from scholars working domains analytics city science. Towards addressing gap, we...

Why do some of Africa's urban areas experience higher rates protest incidence than others? Numerous authors have highlighted the role urbanisation and democratisation in determining cross-national variation protest. Yet understanding has been hindered by failures to measure mechanisms at appropriate spatial scale, analyse a sufficiently representative sample centres, de-confound local country-level factors, consider what it is about specific centres that shapes incidence. This paper presents...

Abstract Urbanization is transforming the human and political geography of Africa. While a growing body research explores urban dimensions clientelism, contentious action, social mobilization, there has been less attention given to ways in which this demographic megatrend influencing change more broadly. We argue that implications African urbanization are contingent on local conditions experiences; no deterministic associations between change. To better understand mechanisms linking...

We examine Africa’s emerging urban geography from a demographic perspective and discuss implications for development policy. adopt an approach that defines urbanisation purely in spatial-demographic terms recognition of the decoupling urbanization (as process) economic Africa. Our analysis uses most up-to-date gridded population data (WorldPop) to analyse diverse patterns “urban” settlement on continent show crucial variable influencing estimates is density. confirms increased density...

Abstract. Flooding is an endemic global challenge with annual damages totalling billions of dollars. Impacts are felt most acutely in low- and middle-income countries, where rapid demographic change driving increased exposure. These areas also tend to lack high-precision hazard mapping data which better understand or manage risk. To address this information gap a number flood models have been developed recent years. However, there substantial uncertainty over the performance these products....

The process of urbanisation has historically been associated with both socioeconomic development and social strain. Although there is little evidence that per se increases the likelihood conflict or violence in a country, recent decades Africa experienced exceptional rates urban population growth context economic stagnation poor governance, producing conditions conducive to unrest violence. In order improve security years ahead, underlying risk factors must be addressed, including poverty,...