A5087994939- Flood Risk Assessment and Management
- Hydrology and Watershed Management Studies
- Hydrology and Drought Analysis
- Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones Research
- Climate variability and models
- Cryospheric studies and observations
- Disaster Management and Resilience
- Landslides and related hazards
- Climate change impacts on agriculture
- Geology and Paleoclimatology Research
- Probabilistic and Robust Engineering Design
- Transboundary Water Resource Management
- Hemodynamic Monitoring and Therapy
- Hydraulic flow and structures
- Water resources management and optimization
- Sepsis Diagnosis and Treatment
- Animal Vocal Communication and Behavior
- Climate Change, Adaptation, Migration
- Wildlife Ecology and Conservation
- Energy Load and Power Forecasting
- Hydraulic and Pneumatic Systems
- Time Series Analysis and Forecasting
- Avian ecology and behavior
- Fish Ecology and Management Studies
- Aortic Thrombus and Embolism
At Bristol
2020-2024
Clifton Hospital
2023-2024
University of Bristol
2015-2020
British Geological Survey
2014
Abstract Elevation data are fundamental to many applications, especially in geosciences. The latest global elevation contains forest and building artifacts that limit its usefulness for applications require precise terrain heights, particular flood simulation. Here, we use machine learning remove buildings forests from the Copernicus Digital Model produce, first time, a map of with removed at 1 arc second (∼30 m) grid spacing. We train our correction algorithm on unique set reference 12...
This study reports a new and significantly enhanced analysis of US flood hazard at 30 m spatial resolution. Specific improvements include updated hydrography data, methods to determine channel depth, more rigorous frequency analysis, output downscaling property tract level, inclusion the impact local interventions in flooding system. For first time, we consider pluvial, fluvial, coastal hazards within same framework provide projections for both current (rather than historic average)...
Flooding is one of the most common natural hazards, causing disastrous impacts worldwide. Stress-testing global human-Earth system to understand sensitivity floodplains and population exposure a range plausible conditions strategy identify where future changes flooding or might be critical. This study presents analysis inundated areas varying flood event magnitudes globally for 1.2 million river reaches. Here we show that topography drainage correlate with sensitivities as well societal...
Abstract Where high‐resolution topographic data are available, modelers faced with the decision of whether it is better to spend computational resource on resolving topography at finer resolutions or running more simulations account for various uncertain input factors (e.g., model parameters). In this paper we apply global sensitivity analysis explore how influential choice spatial resolution when compared uncertainties in Manning's friction coefficient parameters, inflow hydrograph, and...
Abstract Advances in remote sensing have enabled hydraulic models to run at fine scale resolutions, producing precise flood inundation predictions. However, running finer resolutions increase their computational expense, reducing the feasibility of multiple model realizations required undertake uncertainty analysis. Furthermore, it is possible that precision gained by smoothed out when treating probabilistically. The aim this paper determine level spatial complexity making probabilistic...
Abstract Flood inundation modeling across large data sparse areas has been increasing in recent years, driven by a desire to provide hazard information for wider range of locations. The sophistication these models steadily advanced over the past decade due improvements remote sensing and capability. There are now several global flood (GFMs) that seek simulate water surface dynamics all rivers floodplains regardless scarcity. However, lack river bathymetry because this cannot be observed...
Abstract. We present a transparent and validated climate-conditioned catastrophe flood model for the UK, that simulates pluvial, fluvial coastal risks at 1 arcsec spatial resolution (∼ 20–25 m). Hazard layers 10 different return periods are produced over whole UK historic, 2020, 2030, 2050 2070 conditions using Climate Projections 2018 (UKCP18) climate simulations. From these, monetary losses computed five specific global warming levels above pre-industrial values (0.6, 1.1, 1.8, 2.5 3.3...
Abstract Rainfall intensity in the United Kingdom is projected to increase under climate change with significant implications for rainfall‐driven (combined pluvial and fluvial) flooding. In UK, current recommended best practice estimating changes flood hazard involves applying a simple percentage uplift spatially uniform catchment rainfall, despite known importance of spatial temporal characteristics rainfall generation floods. The UKCP Local Convective Permitting Model (CPM) has first time...
Abstract Global flood mapping has developed rapidly over the past decade, but previous approaches have limited scope, function, and accuracy. These limitations restrict applicability fundamental science questions that can be answered with existing model frameworks. Harnessing recently available data modeling methods, this paper presents a new global ∼30 m resolution Flood Map (GFM) complete coverage of fluvial, pluvial, coastal perils, for any return period or climate scenario, including...
Abstract. The understanding of the nature and behavior ice sheets in past warm periods is important for constraining potential impacts future climate change. Pliocene period (between 3.264 3.025 Ma) saw global temperatures similar to those projected climates; nevertheless, locations extents are still poorly constrained. We present results from efforts simulate mid-Pliocene Greenland Ice Sheets by means international Sheet Modeling Intercomparison Project (PLISMIP). compare performance...
Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) describe the earth surface’s topography and are an important source of information for applications physical modelling, engineering many others. Flood inundation where water flows determined by terrain slope, is also highly dependent on DEM quality. The most accurate DEMs currently available sourced from airborne LiDAR, however these only cover a small fraction globe, leaving majority globe satellite imagery. Satellite based have limitations...
Understanding flood hazard at scale requires consistently generated maps. To build maps scale, automated frameworks must be used that can take input data, transform this into hydrodynamic simulations and process it output maps.This transformation from inputs influenced by the design of framework choices made modellers as to how transformations are made. These quality availability computational resources desired outputs. There may not clear objectively better options, so subjective have...
Global flood models (GFMs) and earth observation (EO) play a crucial role in characterising flooding, especially data-sparse, under-resourced regions of the world. However, validation studies are often limited to handful historic events do not directly assess ability these products simulate hazard—the probability that flooding will occur given location. As result, it is difficult for stakeholders decipher either or observations identify hazard make decisions mitigate flooding. Here, we...
Abstract Southern Asia experiences some of the most damaging climate events in world, with loss life from cyclones hundreds thousands. Despite this, research on extremes region is substantially lacking compared to other parts world. To understand narrative how an extreme event may change future, we consider Super Cyclone Amphan, which made landfall May 2020, bringing storm surges 2–4 m coastlines India and Bangladesh. Using latest CMIP6 model projections, coupled surge, hydrological,...
Abstract Dams and reservoirs aid economic development but also create significant negative impacts. fragment rivers reduce longitudinal connectivity on a network scale. However, dams may alter discharge regimes flood peaks, consequently reducing floodplain inundation lateral channel connectivity, which impacts associated ecosystems. Strategic planning has emerged as promising approach to find balance between dam benefits. Yet, strategic predominantly focused due the difficulty of including...
<p>This talk reports a new and significantly enhanced analysis of US flood hazard at 30m spatial resolution.  For the first time we consider pluvial, fluvial coastal hazards within same framework provide projections for both current (rather than historic average) conditions future periods centred on 2035 2050 under RCP4.5 emissions pathway.  Validation against high quality local models entire catalogue FEMA 1% annual probability maps yielded Critical...
Abstract. Flooding is an endemic global challenge with annual damages totalling billions of dollars. Impacts are felt most acutely in low- and middle-income countries, where rapid demographic change driving increased exposure. These areas also tend to lack high-precision hazard mapping data which better understand or manage risk. To address this information gap a number flood models have been developed recent years. However, there substantial uncertainty over the performance these products....
This paper reports a new and significantly enhanced analysis of US flood hazard at 30m spatial resolution. Specific improvements include updated hydrography data, methods to determine channel depth, more rigorous frequency analysis, output downscaling property tract level inclusion the impact local interventions in flooding system. For first time we consider pluvial, fluvial coastal hazards within same framework provide projections for both current (rather than historic average) conditions...
Abstract. Flooding is an endemic global challenge with annual damages totalling billions of dollars. Impacts are felt most acutely in low and middle-income countries, where rapid demographic change driving increased exposure. These areas also tend to lack high precision hazard mapping data which better understand or manage risk. To address this information gap a number Global Flood Models have been developed recent years. However, there substantial uncertainty over the performance these...
Abstract International humanitarian organisations increasingly turn to forecast teams support the coordination of efforts respond disasters caused by hazards such as tropical cyclones and large‐scale fluvial floods. Such often occur where there is limited local capacity or information available decision making so global forecasting utilised provide impact‐based flood bulletins. A multidisciplinary team joined together bulletins expertise for events through UK Foreign Commonwealth Development...
Recent international flood events have demonstrated the large damage and potential loss of life that flooding can cause. In order to accurately quantify risk how it may change in future, we need improve our understanding uncertainties associated with making such predictions. Improvements remote sensing facilitated use high resolution models; however, without consideration uncertainties, these models produce spuriously precise This paper has explored this by assessing changing scale...
Abstract. The understanding of the nature and behavior ice sheets in past warm periods is important to constrain potential impacts future climate change. mid-Pliocene Warm Period (2.97 3.29 Ma) has global temperatures similar those projected for climates, nevertheless Pliocene locations extents are still poorly constrained. We present results from efforts simulate Greenland by means international Ice Sheet Modeling Intercomparison Project (PLISMIP). compare performance existing numerical...
Global flood mapping has developed rapidly over the past decade, but previous approaches have limited scope, function, and accuracy. These limitations restrict applicability fundamental science questions that can be answered with existing model frameworks. Harnessing recently available data modelling methods, this paper presents a new global ~30 m resolution Flood Map (GFM) complete coverage of fluvial, pluvial, coastal perils, for any return period or climate scenario, including accounting...