A5050677836- Flood Risk Assessment and Management
- Hydrology and Watershed Management Studies
- Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones Research
- Hydrology and Drought Analysis
- Climate variability and models
- Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations
- Geophysics and Gravity Measurements
- Coastal and Marine Dynamics
- Oceanographic and Atmospheric Processes
- Hydrological Forecasting Using AI
- Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder
- Hydrology and Sediment Transport Processes
- Ocean Waves and Remote Sensing
- Soil Moisture and Remote Sensing
- Climate Change, Adaptation, Migration
- Cardiac Arrhythmias and Treatments
- Soil erosion and sediment transport
- Arctic and Antarctic ice dynamics
- Impact of Light on Environment and Health
- Heart Rate Variability and Autonomic Control
- Disaster Management and Resilience
- Groundwater flow and contamination studies
- Cardiac electrophysiology and arrhythmias
- Mobile and Web Applications
- IoT and GPS-based Vehicle Safety Systems
At Bristol
2018-2024
Clifton Hospital
2023-2024
University of Ottawa
2024
University of Bristol
2013-2021
United States Army Corps of Engineers
2021
California University of Pennsylvania
2021
John Wiley & Sons (United States)
2014-2016
University of Southampton
2012
This study reports a new and significantly enhanced analysis of US flood hazard at 30 m spatial resolution. Specific improvements include updated hydrography data, methods to determine channel depth, more rigorous frequency analysis, output downscaling property tract level, inclusion the impact local interventions in flooding system. For first time, we consider pluvial, fluvial, coastal hazards within same framework provide projections for both current (rather than historic average)...
Abstract Current flood risk mapping, relying on historical observations, fails to account for increasing threat under climate change. Incorporating recent developments in inundation modelling, here we show a 26.4% (24.1–29.1%) increase US by 2050 due change alone RCP4.5. Our national depiction of comprehensive and high-resolution estimates the United States indicates current average annual losses US$32.1 billion (US$30.5–33.8 billion) 2020’s climate, which are borne disproportionately poorer...
Abstract Current estimates of global flood exposure are made using datasets that distribute population counts homogenously across large lowland floodplain areas. When intersected with simulated water depths, this results in a significant mis-estimation. Here, we use new highly resolved information to show that, reality, humans make more rational decisions about risk than current demographic data suggest. In the data, populations correctly represented as risk-averse, largely avoiding obvious...
Forecasts of tropical cyclones have seen rapid improvements in recent years as expanding computational capacity permits more runs finer resolution meteorological models with increasing representation physical processes. However, the utilization a hydrodynamic component these is often neglected, meaning flood forecasts typically output point water levels that give little indication projected inundation extent on ground. Here, we append this critical to forecast cascade by coupling Fathom-US,...
Abstract In this paper we seek to understand the nature of flood spatial dependence over conterminous United States. We extend an existing conditional multivariate statistical model enable its application large and heterogenous region apply it a 40‐year data set ~2,400 U.S. Geological Survey gauge series records simulate 1,000 years flooding comprising more than 63,000 individual events with realistic dependence. A continental‐scale hydrodynamic at 30 m resolution is then used calculate...
Abstract The execution of hydraulic models at large spatial scales has yielded a step change in our understanding flood risk. Yet their necessary simplification through the use coarsened terrain data results an artificially smooth digital elevation model with diminished representation defense structures. Current approaches dealing this, if anything is done all, involve either employing incomplete inventories information or making largely unsubstantiated assumptions about locations and...
Abstract. This paper presents DECIPHeR (Dynamic fluxEs and ConnectIvity for Predictions of HydRology), a new model framework that simulates predicts hydrologic flows from spatial scales small headwater catchments to entire continents. can be adapted specific settings different levels data availability. It is flexible which includes the capability (1) change its representation variability connectivity by implementing hydrological response units in any configuration (2) test hypotheses...
Abstract. We present a transparent and validated climate-conditioned catastrophe flood model for the UK, that simulates pluvial, fluvial coastal risks at 1 arcsec spatial resolution (∼ 20–25 m). Hazard layers 10 different return periods are produced over whole UK historic, 2020, 2030, 2050 2070 conditions using Climate Projections 2018 (UKCP18) climate simulations. From these, monetary losses computed five specific global warming levels above pre-industrial values (0.6, 1.1, 1.8, 2.5 3.3...
Abstract Global flood mapping has developed rapidly over the past decade, but previous approaches have limited scope, function, and accuracy. These limitations restrict applicability fundamental science questions that can be answered with existing model frameworks. Harnessing recently available data modeling methods, this paper presents a new global ∼30 m resolution Flood Map (GFM) complete coverage of fluvial, pluvial, coastal perils, for any return period or climate scenario, including...
High-resolution gridded precipitation products are rare globally, particularly below a daily time-step, yet many hydrological applications require, or can be improved by, higher temporal resolution of rainfall data. Here, we present new 1 km hourly dataset for Great Britain (Gridded estimates areal (1990–2014) [CEH-GEAR1hr]) using data from over 1900 quality controlled gauges, which improves upon the current UK national datasets at time-step. We extend and automate control (QC) procedure to...
Abstract Global flood models integrate maps of constant probability in space, ignoring the correlation between sites and thus potentially misestimating risk posed by extreme events. Stochastic alleviate this issue through simulation events with a realistic spatial structure, yet their proliferation at large scales has historically been inhibited data quality computer availability. In paper, we show, for first time, efficacy modeled river discharge reanalyses characterization dependence...
Abstract The probability of extreme storm‐tide events has been extensively studied; however, the variability within duration such and implications to flood risk is less well understood. This research quantifies during (the combined elevation tide, surge, their interactions) at 44 national tide gauges around UK. Extreme were sampled from water level measurements taken every 15 min between 1993 2012. At each site, in time step, relative a given event peak, was quantified. magnitude this series...
Recent surface-water and flash floods have caused millions of pounds worth damage in the UK. These events form rapidly are difficult to predict due their short-lived localised nature. The interdisciplinary Flooding From Intense Rainfall (FFIR) programme investigated feasibility enhancing integration an end-to-end forecasting system for help increase lead time warnings these events. Here we propose developments operational based on findings FFIR programme. suggested include methods improve...
Abstract. The assessment of the impacts extreme floods is important for dealing with residual risk, particularly critical infrastructure management and insurance purposes. Thus, modelling probable maximum flood (PMF) from precipitation (PMP) by coupling hydrological hydraulic models has gained interest in recent years. Herein, we examine whether variability patterns exceeds or below selected uncertainty factors loss estimation if losses within a river basin are related to discharge at...
<p>This talk reports a new and significantly enhanced analysis of US flood hazard at 30m spatial resolution.  For the first time we consider pluvial, fluvial coastal hazards within same framework provide projections for both current (rather than historic average) conditions future periods centred on 2035 2050 under RCP4.5 emissions pathway.  Validation against high quality local models entire catalogue FEMA 1% annual probability maps yielded Critical...
Abstract Typical flood models do not take into consideration the spatial structure of events, which can lead to errors in estimation risk at regional continental scales. Large‐scale stochastic simulate synthetic events with a realistic structure, although this method is limited by availability gauge data. Simulated discharge from global hydrological has been successfully used drive modeling data‐rich areas. This research evaluates use hindcasts building river globally: different regions...
[1] In this paper, we assess the risk of future coastal flooding in Severn Estuary, examining contribution from low probability extreme sea level rise scenarios resulting possibility increased rates ice sheet mass loss coming century. A simple asymmetric distribution is constructed to include up 1.9 m by 2100, based on recent assessments UK. regular sampling procedure, every 1 mm, used increase boundary water levels associated with a current 1:200 year event force two-dimensional...
Abstract Flood event set generation, as employed in catastrophe risk models, relies on gauge information that is not available data‐scarce regions. To overcome this limitation, we develop a stochastic fluvial and pluvial flood model of Southeast Asia, using freely globally discharge data from the global hydrological GloFAS rainfall ERA5 reanalysis. We use conditional multivariate statistical to produce synthetic catalog 10,000 years events. calculate population exposure associated with each...
Abstract. Coastal regions face increasing threats from rising sea levels and extreme weather events, highlighting the urgent need for accurate assessments of coastal flood risk. This study presents a novel approach to estimating global level (ESL) exceedance probabilities using regional frequency analysis (RFA) approach. The research combines observed modelled hindcast data produce high-resolution (∼1 km) dataset ESL probabilities, including wave setup, along entire coastline (excluding...
Human populations are not static or uniformly distributed across space and time. This consideration has a notable impact on natural hazard analyses which seek to determine population exposure risk. paper focuses the coupling of environmental models address effect seasonally varying flood A spatiotemporal modelling tool, SurfaceBuilder247, been combined with LISFLOOD-FP inundation model outputs for study area centred coastal resort town St Austell, Cornwall, United Kingdom (UK). Results...
This paper reports a new and significantly enhanced analysis of US flood hazard at 30m spatial resolution. Specific improvements include updated hydrography data, methods to determine channel depth, more rigorous frequency analysis, output downscaling property tract level inclusion the impact local interventions in flooding system. For first time we consider pluvial, fluvial coastal hazards within same framework provide projections for both current (rather than historic average) conditions...
Abstract Rainfall products can contain significantly different spatiotemporal estimates, depending on their underlying data and final constructed resolution. Commonly used products, such as rain gauges, gauge networks, weather radar, differ in information content regarding intensities, spatial variability, natural climatic therefore producing estimates. Landscape evolution models (LEMs) simulate the geomorphic changes landscapes, current timeframes from event level to millions of years some...