Disease outbreaks in wild populations around the globe can lead to widespread mortality within populations, where recovery of individuals be rare. An example this population is sunflower sea star Pycnopodia helianthioides Northeastern Pacific coast. The species, as well many other have experienced massive events due an unidentified disease called Sea Star Wasting (SSWD). play a key role providing top-down control kelp grazers rocky reefs across This, combined with declines coverage observed...

Abstract For countries starting to receive steady supplies of vaccines against SARS-CoV-2, the course Covid-19 for following months will be determined by emergence new variants and successful roll-out vaccination campaigns. To anticipate this scenario, we used a multilayer network model developed forecast transmission dynamics in Costa Rica, estimate impact introduction Delta variant country, under two plausible scenarios, one sustaining Rica’s July 2021 pace 30,000 doses per day with high...

Dengue fever is a vector-borne disease affecting millions yearly, mostly in tropical and subtropical countries. Driven mainly by social environmental factors, dengue incidence geographical expansion have increased recent decades. Therefore, understanding how climate variables drive outbreaks challenging problem of interest for decision-makers that could aid improving surveillance resource allocation. Here, we explore the effect on relative risk 32 cantons public health authorities Costa...

We assess pre-outbreak and during-outbreak vaccination as control strategies for SARS epidemics using a mathematical model that includes susceptible, latent (traced untraced), infectious, isolated recovered individuals. Scenarios focusing on policies include contact tracing levels of self-isolation among untraced infected individuals are explored. Bounds the proportion successfully vaccinated provided basic reproductive number. Uncertainty sensitivity analyses number carried out. The final...

The role of vertical transmission in vectors has rarely been addressed the study dengue dynamics and control, part because it was not considered a critical population-level factor. In this paper, we apply pioneering modeling ideas Ross MacDonald, motivated by context 2000-2001 outbreak Peru, to assess multi-strain competition. An invading strain virus (DENV-2) from Asia rapidly circulated into Peru eventually displacing DENV-2 American. A host-dengue model that considers competing these two...

Dengue transmission poses significant challenges for public health authorities worldwide due to its susceptibility various factors, including environmental and climate variability, affecting incidence geographic spread. This study focuses on Costa Rica, a country characterized by diverse microclimates nearby, where dengue has been endemic since introduction in 1993. Using wavelet coherence clustering analysis, we performed time-series analysis uncover the intricate connections between...

The role of vertical transmission in vectors has rarely been addressed the study dengue dynamics and control, part because it was not considered a critical population-level factor. In this paper, we apply pioneering modeling ideas Ross MacDonald, motivated by context 2000-2001 outbreak Peru, to assess multi-strain competition. An invading strain virus (DENV-2) from Asia rapidly circulated into Peru eventually displacing DENV-2 American. A host-dengue model that considers competing these two...

This study evaluates the impact of a national level subsidized loan program, ACCES, on number higher education outcomes (i.e., increase in enrollment rates, decrease dropout and academic performance) low-income students Colombia. We use data along with regression discontinuity design to estimate program. The results confirm that program was effective terms increasing potential at margin who would have enrolled college, decreasing dropped out, their outcomes.

In Costa Rica, the first known cases of Zika were reported in 2016. We looked at 2016-2017 outbreak and explored transmission dynamics using weekly data. A nonlinear differential equation single-outbreak model with sexual transmission, as well host availability for vector-feeding was used to estimate key parameters, fit data compute <i>basic reproductive number</i>, $\mathcal{R}_0$, distribution. Furthermore, a sensitivity elasticity analysis computed based on $\mathcal{R}_0$ parameters

We constructed a Susceptible-Addicted-Reformed model and explored the dynamics of nonlinear relapse in Reformed population. The transition from susceptible considered at-risk is modeled using strictly decreasing general function, mimicking an influential factor that reduces flow into addicted class. basic reproductive number computed, which determines local asymptotically stability addicted-free equilibrium. Conditions for forward-backward bifurcation were established other threshold...

Dengue is a mosquito-transmitted disease that affects more than 5 million people worldwide. It endemic in 100 countries and it has presence continents. Understanding the dynamics of dengue epidemics crucial reducing massive public health impact this has. However, complex phenomenon. There are many variables contribute to spread virus interconnection those not clear. We set out explore correlation socioeconomic by using geospatial model. Our study centered Costa Rica, country with repeated...

This document summarizes the main results of Impact Evaluation Study Hogares Comunitarios de Bienestar in Colombia. During 2007, Universidad los Andes and PROFAMILIA collected information for about twenty eight thousand children including participants potential program evaluated effects intervention on nutritional status, health, cognitive non-cognitive development children. The indicate that there is a positive significant effect status measured by reduction probability chronic malnutrition...

Climate has been an important factor in shaping the distribution and incidence of dengue cases tropical subtropical countries. In Costa Rica, a country with distinctive micro-climates, endemic since its introduction 1993, inflicting substantial economic, social, public health repercussions. Using number reported climate data from 2007-2017, we fitted prediction model applying Generalized Additive Model (GAM) Random Forest (RF) approach, which allowed us to retrospectively predict relative...

Successful partnerships between researchers, experts, and public health authorities have been critical to navigate the challenges of Covid-19 pandemic worldwide. In this collaboration, mathematical models played a decisive role in informing policy, with findings effectively translated into measures that shaped Costa Rica. As result interdisciplinary cross-institutional we constructed multilayer network model incorporates diverse contact structure for each individual. July 2020, used test...

The rapid spread of the new SARS-CoV-2 virus triggered a global health crisis, disproportionately impacting people with pre-existing conditions and particular demographic socioeconomic characteristics. One main concerns governments has been to avoid systems becoming overwhelmed. For this reason, they have implemented series non-pharmaceutical measures control virus, mass tests being one most effective controls. To date, public officials continue promote some these measures, mainly due delays...