A5014066558- Climate variability and models
- Climate change impacts on agriculture
- Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations
- Hydrology and Drought Analysis
- demographic modeling and climate adaptation
- Hydrology and Watershed Management Studies
- Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones Research
- Plant Water Relations and Carbon Dynamics
- Agricultural risk and resilience
- Arctic and Antarctic ice dynamics
- Climate Change, Adaptation, Migration
- Oceanographic and Atmospheric Processes
- Crop Yield and Soil Fertility
- Flood Risk Assessment and Management
- Agroforestry and silvopastoral systems
- Species Distribution and Climate Change
- Climate Change Policy and Economics
- Science and Climate Studies
- Ocean Waves and Remote Sensing
- Atmospheric and Environmental Gas Dynamics
- Ecology and Vegetation Dynamics Studies
- Agricultural Economics and Policy
- Hydrological Forecasting Using AI
- Urban and Rural Development Challenges
- Atmospheric chemistry and aerosols
University of Cape Town
2013-2024
United Nations Development Programme
2014-2024
International Geographical Union
2011-2024
University of Cambridge
1995-1999
Two regional climate models (RCMs) are used to downscale 10 years of control and future (2070–2079) southern African climate, as simulated by the HadAM3 general circulation model forced with A2 SRES emissions scenario. Changes in early late summer season total rainfall, rain days average surface temperature presented for projected climate. The two RCMs indicate broadly consistent changes over region a whole. However, time‐ location‐dependent differences apparent, especially magnitude change,...
Abstract Subsistence farmers within southern Africa have identified the onset of maize growing season as an important seasonal characteristic, advance knowledge which would aid preparations for planting rain-fed maize. Onset over South and Zimbabwe is calculated using rainfall data from Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Merged Analysis Precipitation (CMAP) Computing Water Research (CCWR). The two datasets present similar estimates mean, standard deviation, trend common period (1979–97) Africa....
When will least developed countries be most vulnerable to climate change, given the influence of projected socio-economic development? The question is important, not because current levels international assistance support adaptation lag more than an order magnitude below what analysts estimate needed, and scaling up could take many years. In this paper, we examine using empirically derived model human losses climate-related extreme events, as indicator vulnerability need for assistance. We...
Abstract Aim Intercomparison of mechanistic and empirical models is an important step towards improving projections potential species distribution abundance. We aim to compare suitability productivity estimates for a well‐understood crop evaluate the strengths weaknesses versus modelling. Location S outh A frica. Methods compared four habitat dryland maize based on climate soil predictors. Two were created using maximum entropy ( MAXENT ), first national points second only locations with...
The recent 2015/16 summer rainfall season in the terrestrial Southern African Development Community (SADC) region appears to be most severe since droughts of early 1980s and 1990s; with well-publicized significant impacts on agriculture food security. Impacts have been particularly concerning 2015/6 followed a poor rainy 2014/15, certain areas compounding already compromised production (total maize was, for example, down 40% relative previous 5 year average). This paper reviews climate...
CR Climate Research Contact the journal Facebook Twitter RSS Mailing List Subscribe to our mailing list via Mailchimp HomeLatest VolumeAbout JournalEditorsSpecials 40:147-161 (2009) - DOI: https://doi.org/10.3354/cr00821 Growing-season rainfall and scenarios of future change in southeast Africa: implications for cultivating maize Mark Tadross1,*, Pablo Suarez2, Alex Lotsch3, Sepo Hachigonta1, Marshall Mdoka1, Leonard Unganai4, Filipe Lucio5, Donald Kamdonyo6, Maurice Muchinda7 1Climate...
The regional climate model RegCM3 was used to simulate the direct and semidirect radiative effects of biomass burning dust aerosol over southern Africa during austral winter season. Simulated aerosols were found induce changes in surface fluxes atmospheric dynamics. Clear‐sky forcing decreased by up −60 W/m 2 main region, resulting turbulent PBL height as well reduced temperatures. positive temperature bias western half subcontinent thus reduced. Radiative absorption resulted diabatic...
There is a growing research interest in understanding extreme weather the context of anthropogenic climate change, posing requirement for new tailored data products. Here we introduce Climate 20th Century Plus Detection and Attribution project (C20C + D&A), an international collaboration generating product specifically intended diagnosing causes changes uncertainties that diagnosis. The runs multiple dynamical models atmosphere-land system under observed historical conditions as well...
The Western Cape region of South Africa is a key producing area for African agriculture, with strong dependence on austral winter rainfall. past three years have, however, seen extensive drought impacting this region, significant impacts agriculture. In article, we unpack how the unfolded, as well possibilities in predicting We consider impacted looking depth at two commodities to rainfall agricultural sector – namely, wheat and apples; concluding brief discussion implications future.
Abstract We analyse long‐term (1900–2017) rainfall data in the southern part of winter region Africa to understand spatial patterns recent and trends contextualize 2015–2017 anomalies which led so‐called “Day Zero” drought Cape Town. Our analyses reveal cohesive seasonal differences across a range timescales. These suggest that is subject regional driving mechanisms, predominantly manifested at 20–50 year timescale, but influence these mechanisms modified by subregional seasonally specific...
Abstract Crop model‐specific biases are a key uncertainty affecting our understanding of climate change impacts to agriculture. There is increasing research focus on intermodel variation, but comparisons between mechanistic ( MM s) and empirical models EM rare despite both being used widely in this field. We combined s project future (2055) changes the potential distribution (suitability) productivity maize spring wheat S outh A frica under 18 downscaled scenarios (9 run 2 emissions...
Abstract Aim: Ecosystems face numerous well‐documented threats from climate change. The well‐being of people also is threatened by change, most prominently reduced food security. Human adaptation to scarcity, including shifting agricultural zones, will create new for natural ecosystems. We investigated how shifts in crop suitability because change may overlap currently protected areas (PAs) and priority sites PA expansion South Africa. Predicting the locations suitable conditions growth...
Author(s): Angelil, O; Stone, DA; Tadross, M; Tummon, F; Wehner, Knutti, R | Abstract: Recent studies have examined the anthropogenic contribution to specific extreme weather events, such as European (2003) and Russian (2010) heat waves. While these targeted examine attributable risk of an event occurring over a specified temporal spatial domain, it is unclear how effectively their attribution statements can serve proxy for similar events at different scales. Here we test sensitivity results...
Agriculture in southern Africa is predicted to be particularly severely affected by climate change, and hence considered a priority area for creating an enabling environment adaptation. The study presented here, based the arid Suid Bokkeveld region of South Africa, aims increase resilience small-scale tea farmers responding using as starting point existing local adaptive capacity, while recognising utility external knowledge such projections. Using participatory research methods well...