A5065890775- Climate variability and models
- Oceanographic and Atmospheric Processes
- Atmospheric Ozone and Climate
- Atmospheric and Environmental Gas Dynamics
- Marine and coastal ecosystems
- Arctic and Antarctic ice dynamics
- Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations
- Geophysics and Gravity Measurements
- Geology and Paleoclimatology Research
- Solar and Space Plasma Dynamics
- Aerospace Engineering and Energy Systems
- Coastal wetland ecosystem dynamics
- Scientific Research and Discoveries
- Climate Change and Geoengineering
- Climate change and permafrost
- Hydrology and Watershed Management Studies
- Ocean Waves and Remote Sensing
- Science and Climate Studies
- Cryospheric studies and observations
- Soil and Water Nutrient Dynamics
- Peatlands and Wetlands Ecology
- Spaceflight effects on biology
- demographic modeling and climate adaptation
- Ionosphere and magnetosphere dynamics
- Ocean Acidification Effects and Responses
Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute
2013-2024
Bolin Centre for Climate Research
2016
Stockholm University
2016
Freie Universität Berlin
2010-2012
The combined future impacts of climate change and industrial agricultural practices in the Baltic Sea catchment on ecosystem were assessed. For this purpose 16 transient simulations for 1961–2099 using a coupled physical-biogeochemical model performed. Four scenarios with four nutrient load ranging from pessimistic business-as-usual to more optimistic case following Action Plan (BSAP). Annual seasonal mean changes parameters ecological quality indicators describing environmental status like...
Multi-model ensemble simulations for the marine biogeochemistry and food web of Baltic Sea were performed period 1850–2098, projected changes in future climate compared with past environment. For 1850–2006, atmospheric, hydrological nutrient forcings reconstructed, based on historical measurements. 1961–2098, scenario driven by regionalized global general circulation model (GCM) data forced various greenhouse gas emission air- riverborne load scenarios (ranging from a pessimistic...
Abstract. We present Nemo-Nordic, a Baltic and North Sea model based on the NEMO ocean engine. Surrounded by highly industrialized countries, seas their assets associated with shipping, fishing tourism are vulnerable to anthropogenic pressure climate change. Ocean models providing reliable forecasts enabling climatic studies important tools for shipping infrastructure get better understanding of effects change marine ecosystems. Nemo-Nordic is intended be tool both short-term long-term...
Seasonal prediction skill of winter mid and high northern latitudes climate from sea ice variations in eight different Arctic regions is analyzed using detrended ERA-interim data satellite for the period 1980–2013. We find significant correlations between areas both September November level pressure, air temperature precipitation. The improved when conditions as predictor compared to September. This particularly true predicting NAO-like patterns blocking situations Euro-Atlantic area. that...
A new regional coupled model system for the North Sea and Baltic is developed, which composed of setup ocean NEMO, Rossby Centre climate RCA4, sea ice LIM3 river routing CaMa-Flood. The performance this assessed using a simulation forced with ERA-Interim reanalysis data at lateral boundaries during period 1979–2010. Compared to observations, can realistically simulate present climate. Since active coupling area covers only, impact on atmosphere over Europe small. However, we found some...
This article compares interactively coupled atmosphere–ocean hindcast simulations with stand-alone runs of the atmosphere and ocean models using recently developed regional ocean–atmosphere model NEMO-Nordic for North Sea Baltic Sea. In run, components were allowed to exchange mass, momentum heat every 3 h. Our results show that interactive coupling significantly improves simulated winter sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in The runs, respectively, resulted too low air over These two suffer...
An ensemble of regional climate change scenarios for the North Sea is validated and analyzed. Five Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) General Circulation Models (GCMs) using three different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) have been downscaled with coupled atmosphere–ice–ocean model RCA4-NEMO. Validation sea surface temperature (SST) against datasets suggests that results are well within spread observational datasets. The mean SST a bias less than 1 ∘ C...
Abstract. Variability and long-term climate change in the Baltic Sea region is investigated for pre-industrial period of last millennium. For first time dynamical downscaling covering complete millennium conducted with a regional model this area. As result changing external forcing conditions, simulation shows warm conditions centuries followed by gradual cooling until ca. 1700 before temperature increases centuries. This evolution, Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) Little Ice Age (LIA), broad...
Abstract. The Baltic Sea is a seasonally ice-covered marginal sea in northern Europe with intense wintertime ship traffic and sensitive ecosystem. Understanding modeling the evolution of sea-ice pack important for climate effect studies forecasting purposes. Here we present evaluate component new NEMO–LIM3.6-based ocean–sea-ice setup North region (NEMO-Nordic). includes depth-based fast-ice parametrization Sea. evaluation focuses on long-term statistics, from 45-year long hindcast, although...
Abstract A regional reanalysis has been produced for a domain covering entire Europe from 1984 to 2021. The is as part of the Copernicus Climate Change Service. Service provides high‐resolution deterministic European Regional Reanalysis (CERRA), run at horizontal resolution 5.5 km, 10‐member ensemble 11‐km well an offline surface analysis, CERRA‐Land. CERRA‐EDA uses data assimilation (EDA) technique perturb initial condition different members. Apart CERRA and setups are same; example, same...
[1] The variability in the number of major sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) is analyzed a multi-century simulation under constant forcing using stratosphere resolving atmosphere-ocean general circulation model. A wavelet-analysis SSW time series identifies significantly enhanced power at period 52 years. coherency this signal with tropospheric and oceanic parameters investigated. strongest coherence found North Atlantic ocean-atmosphere heat-flux from November to January. Here, an ocean...
Abstract The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) is a natural mode of variability the North sea surface temperature. AMO can be used to describe complex interaction coupled atmosphere‐ocean system Atlantic. By analyzing preindustrial period 850 years with regional climate model, we show that influences Baltic Sea. AMO‐related changes atmospheric circulation affect precipitation over Sea region, which leads altered river runoff influencing salinity A wavelet coherence analysis reveals...
Abstract. While advanced computational capabilities have enabled the development of complex ocean general circulation models (OGCMs) for marginal seas, systematic comparisons regional and their setups are still rare. The Baltic Sea Model Intercomparison Project (BMIP), introduced herein, was therefore established as a platform scientific analysis comparison models. inclusion physically consistent reanalysis data set period 1961–2018 allows standardized meteorological forcing river runoff....
Abstract The surface climate response to 11-yr solar forcing during northern winter is first reestimated by applying a multiple linear regression (MLR) statistical model Hadley Centre sea level pressure (SLP) and temperature (SST) data over the 1880–2009 period. In addition significant positive SLP in North Pacific found previous studies, SST obtained across midlatitude Pacific. Negative but insignificant responses are Arctic. derived at zero lag therefore resembles phase of Arctic...
Abstract A transient multicentury simulation mimicking natural variability has been performed for the Baltic Sea. The is used investigations of long-term trends salinity in Sea with special focus on periods reduction. Periods decreasing over 10 yr are found to appear approximately once per century. Considering extended reduction, as observed from 1976 1992, such events be quite exceptional. Based climate simulation, a return period 200 estimated. River discharge, net precipitation...
Major Baltic inflows are an important process to sustain the sensitive steady state of Sea. We introduce algorithm identify atmospheric variability favourable for major inflows. The is based on sea-level pressure (SLP) fields as only parameter. Characteristic SLP pattern fluctuations include a precursory phase 30 days and 10 inflow period. identifies successfully majority observed between 1961 2010. In addition, finds some occurrences which cannot be related these cases with conditions, were...
Abstract. In order to facilitate offshore wind farm tenders, Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD, Germany's national meteorological service) provides reanalysis data and quality assessments Bundesamt für Seeschifffahrt und Hydrographie (BSH, Federal Maritime Hydrographic Agency). The regional COSMO-REA6 is used besides the global ERA5. New reanalyses derived products getting available are (i) CERRA (C3S), (ii) COSMO-R6G2, a successor of which currently produced by DWD (iii) HoKliSim-De,...
Transient climate simulations are performed covering the period from 1630 to 2000. A vertically extended version of a coupled atmosphere‐ocean general circulation model is used, including detailed representation stratosphere. One simulation driven by changes in total solar irradiance due activity as well volcanic eruptions and greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations. second additionally includes short‐wave heating prescribed photochemical ozone. The compared with reconstructions other employing...
Integrated sediment multiproxy studies and modeling were used to reconstruct past changes in the Baltic Sea ecosystem. Results of natural over 6000 years ecosystem suggest that forecasted climate warming might enhance environmental problems Sea. proxy reveal increased sea surface temperatures expanded seafloor anoxia (in deep basins) during earlier warm phases, such as Medieval Climate Anomaly. Under future IPCC scenarios global warming, there is likely no improvement bottom water conditions...
[1] The potential role of the stratosphere for 11-year solar cycle signal in Pacific region is investigated by idealized simulations using a coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model. model includes detailed representation and accounts changes stratospheric heating rates from prescribed time dependent variations ozone spectrally high resolved irradiance. Three transient are performed spanning 21 cycles each. use slightly different perturbations representing uncertainties induced...