A5088110059- Agriculture Sustainability and Environmental Impact
- Climate Change Policy and Economics
- Environmental Impact and Sustainability
- Climate change impacts on agriculture
- Soil Carbon and Nitrogen Dynamics
- Water-Energy-Food Nexus Studies
- Energy, Environment, and Transportation Policies
- Rangeland Management and Livestock Ecology
- Sustainable Development and Environmental Policy
- Soil and Water Nutrient Dynamics
- Conservation, Biodiversity, and Resource Management
- Forest Management and Policy
- Food Waste Reduction and Sustainability
- Energy and Environment Impacts
- demographic modeling and climate adaptation
- Global Energy and Sustainability Research
- Pasture and Agricultural Systems
- Water resources management and optimization
- Economic and Environmental Valuation
- Land Use and Ecosystem Services
- Peatlands and Wetlands Ecology
- Agricultural risk and resilience
- Plant Water Relations and Carbon Dynamics
- Agriculture, Land Use, Rural Development
- 3D Modeling in Geospatial Applications
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
2015-2024
Lund University
2024
Leibniz Association
2018-2024
Forschungsinstitut für Biologischen Landbau
2023
World Vegetable Center
2023
Leibniz Institute for Agricultural Engineering and Bioeconomy
2016-2019
Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin
2014-2018
• Narratives for the Shared Socio-Economic Pathways (SSPs) focusing on land sector are presented. Integrated Assessment Models have been applied SSPs to assess potential future developments use, greenhouse gas emissions, food provision and prices. Model results reflect general storylines of indicate a broad range land-use futures. SSP-based use pathways aim at supporting climate research, impact analysis, biodiversity research sustainability science. In future, system will be facing new...
This paper presents a set of energy and resource intensive scenarios based on the concept Shared Socio-Economic Pathways (SSPs). The scenario family is characterized by rapid fossil-fueled development with high socio-economic challenges to mitigation low adaptation (SSP5). A special focus placed SSP5 marker developed REMIND-MAgPIE integrated assessment modeling framework. baseline exhibit very levels fossil fuel use, up doubling global food demand, tripling demand greenhouse gas emissions...
Long-term food demand scenarios are an important tool for studying global security and analysing the environmental impacts of agriculture. We provide a simple transparent method to create future plant-based animal-based calorie demand, using time-dependent regression models between income. The can be customized specific storyline by different input data gross domestic product (GDP) population projections assuming functional forms regressions. Our results confirm that total increases with...
Atmospheric soot loadings from nuclear weapon detonation would cause disruptions to the Earth's climate, limiting terrestrial and aquatic food production. Here, we use crop fishery models estimate impacts arising six scenarios of stratospheric injection, predicting total calories available in each nation post-war after stored is consumed. In quantifying away target areas, demonstrate that injections larger than 5 Tg lead mass shortages, livestock production be unable compensate for reduced...
The land-use sector can contribute to climate change mitigation not only by reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, but also increasing carbon uptake from the atmosphere and thereby creating negative CO2 emissions. In this paper, we investigate two land-based strategies for removal: (1) afforestation (2) bioenergy in combination with capture storage technology (bioenergy CCS). our approach, a global tax on GHG emissions aimed at ambitious incentivizes penalizing positive rewarding system....
Welfare losses from climate change in agriculture will mainly affect consumers, particularly the low-latitude regions.
One of the main challenges for 21st century is to balance increasing demand high-quality proteins while mitigating environmental impacts. In particular, cropland-based production protein-rich animal feed livestock rearing results in large-scale agricultural land-expansion, nitrogen pollution, and greenhouse gas emissions. Here we propose analyze long-term potential alternative supply routes based on industrial microbial (MP). Our analysis reveals that by 2050, MP can replace, depending...
The nutrition transition transforms food systems globally and shapes public health environmental change. Here we provide a global forward-looking assessment of continued its interlinked symptoms in respect to consumption. These range from underweight unbalanced diets obesity, waste pressure. We find that by 2050, 45% (39-52%) the world population will be overweight 16% (13-20%) obese, compared 29% 9% 2010 respectively. prevalence approximately halves but absolute numbers stagnate at 0.4-0.7...
Large-scale 2nd generation bioenergy deployment is a key element of 1.5 °C and 2 transformation pathways. However, large-scale production might have negative sustainability implications thus may conflict with the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) agenda. Here, we carry out multi-criteria assessment crop throughout 21st century (300 EJ in 2100) using global land-use model. Our analysis indicates that without complementary measures results effects on following indicators: deforestation, CO2...
Abstract Bioenergy is expected to play an important role in the future energy mix as it can substitute fossil fuels and contribute climate change mitigation. However, large‐scale bioenergy cultivation may put substantial pressure on land water resources. While irrigated production reduce due higher yields, associated irrigation requirements lead degradation of freshwater ecosystems conflicts with other potential users. In this article, we investigate trade‐offs between production. To end,...
Livestock farming is the world's largest land use sector and utilizes around 60% of global biomass harvest. Over coming decades, climate change will affect natural resource base livestock production, especially productivity rangeland feed crops. Based on a comprehensive impact modeling chain, we assess implications different projections for agricultural production costs explore effectiveness system transitions as an adaptation strategy. Simulated impacts crop yields generate amounting to 3%...
Abstract. Reactive nitrogen (Nr) is not only an important nutrient for plant growth, thereby safeguarding human alimentation, but it also heavily disturbs natural systems. To mitigate air, land, aquatic, and atmospheric pollution caused by the excessive availability of Nr, crucial to understand long-term development global agricultural Nr cycle. For our analysis, we combine a material flow model with land-use optimization model. In first step estimate state cycle in 1995. second create four...
Abstract. The open-source modeling framework MAgPIE (Model of Agricultural Production and its Impact on the Environment) combines economic biophysical approaches to simulate spatially explicit global scenarios land use within 21st century respective interactions with environment. Besides various other projects, it was used marker Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) contributed substantially multiple IPCC assessments. However, growing scope detail, non-linear model has become increasingly...
Abstract Transformation pathways for the land sector in line with Paris Agreement depend on assumption of globally implemented greenhouse gas (GHG) emission pricing, and some cases also inclusive socio-economic development sustainable land-use practices. In such pathways, majority GHG reductions system is expected to come from low- middle-income countries, which currently account a large share emissions agriculture, forestry other use (AFOLU). However, countries economic, financial...
Abstract Land conservation and increased carbon uptake on land are fundamental to achieving the ambitious targets of climate biodiversity conventions. Yet, it remains largely unknown how such ambitions, along with an increasing demand for agricultural products, could drive landscape-scale changes affect other key regulating nature’s contributions people (NCP) that sustain productivity outside priority areas. By using integrated, globally consistent modelling approach, we show carbon-focused...
A transition to healthy diets such as the EAT-Lancet Planetary Health Diet could considerably reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. However, specific contributions of dietary shifts for feasibility 1.5°C pathways remain unclear. Here, we use open-source integrated assessment modeling (IAM) framework REMIND-MAgPIE compare with and without shifts. We find that a flexitarian diet increases Paris Agreement climate goals in different ways: The reduction GHG emissions related shifts, especially...
The land use sector of agriculture, forestry, and other (AFOLU) plays a central role in ambitious climate change mitigation efforts. Yet, policies agriculture may be conflict with food security related targets. Using global agro-economic model, we analyze the impacts on prices under targeting either incentives for producers (e.g., through taxes) or consumer preferences education programs). Despite having similar reduction potential 43-44% 2100, two types policy instruments result opposite...
Many global health risks are related to what and how much we eat. At the same time, production of food, especially from animal origin, contributes environmental change at a scale that threatens boundaries safe operating space for humanity. Here outline viable solutions reconcile healthy protein consumption sustainable which requires solid, interdisciplinary evidence base. We review role proteins human ecosystem health, including physiological effects dietary proteins, potentials agricultural...