ABSTRACT The Mapping Application for Penguin Populations and Projected Dynamics (MAPPPD) is a web-based, open access, decision-support tool designed to assist scientists, non-governmental organisations policy-makers working meet the management objectives as set forth by Commission Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources (CCAMLR) other components Treaty System (ATS) (that is, Consultative Meetings ATS Committee on Environmental Protection). MAPPPD was specifically complement...

Abstract Conservation managers rely on accurate estimates of disease parameters, such as pathogen prevalence and infection intensity, to assess status a host population. However, these metrics may be biased if low‐level intensities are missed by sampling methods or laboratory diagnostic tests. These false negatives underestimate overestimate mean intensity infected individuals. Our objectives were two‐fold. First, we quantified negative error rates Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis ( Bd )...

Abstract Colonially-breeding seabirds have long served as indicator species for the health of oceans on which they depend. Abundance and breeding data are repeatedly collected at fixed study sites in hopes that changes abundance productivity may be useful adaptive management marine resources, but their suitability this purpose is often unknown. To address this, we fit a Bayesian population dynamics model includes process observation error to all known Adélie penguin (1982–2015) Antarctic,...

Abstract Population ecology and biogeography applications often necessitate the transfer of models across spatial and/or temporal dimensions to make predictions outside bounds data used for model fitting. However, ecological are spatiotemporally unbalanced such that or dimension tends contain more than other. This unbalance frequently leads transfers become substitutions, which a different predictive was built on. Despite prevalence substitutions in ecology, studies validating their...

•Females often outnumber males in Salix populations, although the mechanisms behind female bias are not well understood and could be caused by both genetic ecological factors. We investigated several factors that secondary sex ratios of sitchensis colonizing Mount St. Helens after 1980 eruption.•We determined whether S. varied across disturbance zones created eruption mesic hydric habitats within each zone. For one population, we tracked adult mortality, whole-plant reproductive allocation,...

Obtaining inferences on disease dynamics (e.g., host population size, pathogen prevalence, transmission rate, survival probability) typically requires marking and tracking individuals over time. While multistate mark-recapture models can produce high-quality inference, these techniques are difficult to employ at large spatial long temporal scales or in small remnant populations decimated by virulent pathogens, where low recapture rates may preclude the use of techniques. Recently developed...

Ecological predictions are necessary for testing whether processes hypothesized to regulate species population dynamics generalizable across time and space. In order demonstrate generalizability, model should be transferable in one or more dimensions, where transferability is the successful prediction of responses outside data bounds. While much known as what makes spatially-oriented models transferable, there no general consensus spatio-temporal ecological series models. Here, we examine...

The Antarctic Penguin Biogeography Project is an effort to collate all known information about the distribution and abundance of penguins through time make such data available scientific management community. core product involves a series structured tables with on breeding sites surveys conducted at those from earliest days exploration present. This database, which continuously updated as new becomes available, provides unified comprehensive repository penguin biogeography that contributes...

Lack of demographic data for most the world's threatened species is a widespread problem that precludes viability-based status assessments conservation. A commonly suggested solution to use from are closely related or biologically similar focal species. This approach assumes and populations same have rates, an assumption has yet be thoroughly tested. We constructed Bayesian hierarchical model with on 425 plant predict rates (intrinsic rate population growth, recruit survival, juvenile adult...

Abstract The plant stress and vigor hypotheses are widely used to explain the distribution abundance of insect herbivores across their host plants. These subject contentious debate within herbivore research community, with several studies finding simultaneous support for both same plant–herbivore interaction. We address question how such is possible using dynamic site‐occupancy models quantify attack dynamics Cryptorhynchus lapathi (poplar‐willow weevil) on Salix sitchensis (Sitka willow), a...

Emerging infectious diseases can cause host community disassembly, but the mechanisms driving order of species declines and extirpations following a disease outbreak are unclear. We documented disassembly Neotropical tadpole during chytridiomycosis outbreak, triggered by generalist fungal pathogen, Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd). Within first 11 months Bd arrival, density occupancy rapidly declined. Species rarity, in terms adult relative abundance, did not predict odds declines. But...

Abstract Many ecological systems dominated by stochastic dynamics can produce complex time series that inherently limit forecast accuracy. The ‘intrinsic predictability’ of these be approximated a complexity metric called weighted permutation entropy (WPE). While WPE is useful to gauge performance prior model building, it sensitive noise and may biased depending on the length series. Here, we introduce simple randomized test (rWPE) assess whether intrinsically more predictable than white...

The population dynamics of many colonially breeding seabirds are characterized by large interannual fluctuations that cannot be explained environmental conditions alone. This variation may particularly confounded the use skipped as a life-history strategy, which directly impacts number pairs and affect accuracy abundance metric health. Additionally, in time series suggest underlying heavy tailed, allowing for higher likelihood extreme events than expected under Gaussian dynamics. Here, we...

Abstract While species distribution models (SDM) are frequently used to predict occurrences help inform conservation management, there is limited evidence evaluating whether habitat suitability can reliably intrinsic growth rates or distinguish source populations from sinks. Filling this knowledge gap critical for science, as applications of SDMs management purposes ultimately depend on these typically unobserved population metapopulation dynamics. Using linear regression, we associated...

Satellite-based remote sensing and uncrewed aerial imagery play increasingly important roles in the mapping of wildlife populations habitat, but availability has been limited areas. At same time, ecotourism is a rapidly growing industry can yield vast catalog photographs that could be harnessed for monitoring purposes, inherently ad-hoc unstructured nature these images make them difficult to use. To help address this, subfield computer vision known as phototourism developed leverage diverse...

This paper examines the diffusion paths of selected integrated pest management (IPM) techniques for 24 fruit crops in nine states, forecasts when adoption IPM will reach 75% fruit-bearing acres, and determinants rate diffusion. The follows logistic functional form most be reached before year 2035, if current conditions prevail. Differences rates can accounted by type crop, region where crop is grown, revenues per acre, level research investment. Research Question In 1993 USDA, Food Drug...

The Antarctic Penguin Biogeography Project is an effort to collate all known information about the distribution and abundance of penguins through time make such data available scientific management community. core product involves a series structured tables with on breeding sites surveys conducted at those from earliest days exploration present. This database, which continuously updated as new becomes available, provides unified comprehensive repository penguin biogeography that contributes...