A5025647621- Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones Research
- Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations
- Climate variability and models
- Ocean Waves and Remote Sensing
- Wind and Air Flow Studies
- Advanced Data Processing Techniques
- Disaster Management and Resilience
Joint Typhoon Warning Center
2021-2023
University of Miami
2021
NOAA Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratories
2021
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
2021
Florida State University
2018-2020
In this paper, we summarize findings from the Tenth International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones (IWTC-10) subgroup operational track forecasting techniques and capability. The rate of improvement in accuracy official forecast tracks (OFTs) appears to be slowing down, at least for shorter lead times, where may approaching theoretical limits. Operational agencies continue use consensus methods produce OFT with most continuing rely an unweighted four nine NWP models. There continues limited...
The early stages of a tropical cyclone can be challenge to forecast, as storm consolidates and begins grow based on the local environmental conditions. A high-resolution ensemble Hurricane Analysis Forecast System (HAFS) is used study intensification Dorian, catastrophic 2019 in which period proved challenging for forecasters. There was clear connection between track intensity: stronger members moved more northeast initially, although this result did not have much impact long-term track....
Abstract The global-nested Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS-globalnest) is one piece of NOAA’s Unified (UFS) application for hurricanes. In this study, results are analyzed from 2020 real-time forecasts by HAFS-globalnest a similar model, the Tropical Atlantic version GFDL’s High‐resolution prediction on Earth‐to‐Local Domains (T-SHiELD). produced highest track forecast skill compared to several operational experimental models, while T-SHiELD showed promising skills as well....
Abstract The problem of transforming geospatial data into polar coordinates, a common task in the analysis centered on geophysical phenomena, is examined. azimuthal equidistant projection shown to be optimal transform for this purpose. A mathematical and observational errors incurred by using alternative conducted reveals that such can significant at radii as small few hundred kilometers. When evaluating observed 200‐hPa wind fields near Atlantic tropical cyclones (TCs), median maximum total...
Abstract An objective algorithm is developed for identifying jets in 200-hPa flow and applied to reanalysis data within 2000 km of Atlantic tropical cyclones (TCs) during 1979–2015. The resulting set 16 512 analyzed both qualitatively quantitatively describe the climatology TC–jet configurations jet behavior near TCs. Jets occur most commonly poleward TCs 500–1000-km annulus, where TC outflow amplifies background potential vorticity gradient. A rigorous clustering analysis performed,...