Abstract In the context of 100% renewable electricity systems, prolonged periods with persistently scarce supply from wind and solar resources have received increasing academic political attention. This article explores how such scarcity relate to energy storage requirements. To this end, we contrast results a time series analysis those system cost optimization model, based on German case study using 35 years hourly data. While our supports previous findings that last no longer than two...

Wind and solar energy are often expected to fall victim their own success: the higher share in electricity generation, more revenue markets (their "market value") declines. While market values may converge zero conventional power systems, this study argues that "green" hydrogen production can effectively permanently halt decline by adding flexible demand low-price hours. To support argument, article further develops merit order model uses price duration curves include electrolysis derive an...

The hydrogen economy is currently experiencing a surge in attention, partly due to the possibility of absorbing variable renewable energy (VRE) production peaks through electrolysis. A fundamental challenge with this approach low utilization rates various parts integrated electricity-hydrogen system. To assess importance capacity utilization, paper introduces novel stylized numerical system model incorporating major elements electricity and generation, transmission storage, including both...

The European electricity industry, the dominant sector of world's largest cap-and-trade scheme, is one most-studied examples carbon pricing. In particular, numerical models are often used to study uncertain future development prices and emissions. While parameter uncertainty addressed through sensitivity analyses, potential themselves remains unclear from existing single-model studies. This investigates such model-related by running a structured model comparison experiment, which exposes...

In many net-zero energy scenarios, electrolytic hydrogen is a key component to decarbonize hard-to-abate sectors and provide flexibility the power sector. current systems that are not yet fully decarbonized, however, ramp-up raises concern of increasing sector emissions. To avoid such additional emissions, recent EU regulation defines requirements for qualify as green along three dimensions: additionality, proximity, simultaneity renewable electricity generation. Focusing on temporal...

Frequency stability requires equalizing supply and demand for electricity at short time scales. Such balancing is often understood as a sequential process in which random shocks, such weather events, cause imbalances that system operators close by activating reserves. By contrast, we study market where the equilibrium price (imbalance price) quantity (system imbalance) are determined demand. System imbalance energy reserves; parties that, deliberately or not, deviate from schedules create...

Is there a place for today's fossil fuel exporters in low-carbon future? This study explores trade channels between energy and importers using novel electricity-hydrogen-steel systems model calibrated to Norway, major natural gas producer, Germany, consumer. Under tight emission constraints, Norway can supply Germany with electricity, (blue) hydrogen, or re-import of captured CO2. Alternatively, it use hydrogen produce steel through direct reduction the world market, an export route not...

Abstract Numerical optimization models are used to develop scenarios of the future energy system. Usually, they optimize mix subject engineering costs such as equipment and fuel. For onshore wind energy, some these use cost-potential curves that indicate how much electricity can be generated at what cost. These upward sloping mainly because windy sites occupied first further expanding means deploying less favorable resources. Meanwhile, real-world expansion is curbed by local resistance,...

The development of European power markets is highly influenced by integrated electricity and heat systems. Therefore, decarbonization policies for the sectors, as well numerical models that are used to guide such policies, should consider cross-sectoral interdependencies need evaluation. Many model-based policy assessments evaluate potential benefits combined power. However, extent benefits, emissions reductions, found in existing studies subject considerable variations. While scenarios...

The growing number of electric vehicles (EVs) will challenge the power system, but EVs may also have balancing effects via smart charging. Modeling EVs’ system-level impact while respecting computational constraints requires aggregation individual profiles. We show that studies typically rely on too few profiles to accurately model and a naïve leads an overestimation fleet’s flexibility potential. To overcome this, we introduce scalable accurate approach based idea deviations from...

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Electricity needs to be consumed at the very moment of production, leading wholesale prices fluctuate widely (sub-)hourly time scales. This article investigates response aggregate electricity demand such price variations. Using wind energy as an instrument, we estimate a significant and robust short-term elasticity about −0.05 in Germany attribute this industrial consumers. As share consumption that is exposed real-time (currently less than 25%) expands, expect aggregated grow.

Forecasts are usually evaluated in terms of accuracy. With regard to application, the question arises if most accurate forecast is also optimal related costs and risks. Combining insights from research practice, we show that this indeed not necessarily case. Our analysis grounded dynamic field short-term forecasting solar electricity feed-in. A clear sky model implemented combined with a linear model, an autoregressive artificial neural network. These models applied portfolio ten large-scale...

Numerical optimization models are used to develop scenarios of the future energy system. Usually, they optimize mix subject engineering costs such as equipment and fuel. For onshore wind energy, some these use cost-potential curves that indicate how much electricity can be generated at what cost. These upward sloping mainly because windy sites occupied first further expanding means deploying less favorable resources. Meanwhile, real-world expansion is curbed by local resistance, regulatory...

Decentralized electric heat pumps are an important component in many future energy scenarios. However, their dispatch and efficiency highly weather-dependent, which is often inadequately considered the This contribution aims to address this shortcoming by analyzing a large-scale empirical dataset of monitored from UK. More specifically, we propose model pump behavior as function temperature equivalents, do not only capture ambient but also wind-driven infiltration solar gains determinants...