A5023383674- Climate variability and models
- Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations
- Oceanographic and Atmospheric Processes
- Atmospheric and Environmental Gas Dynamics
- Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones Research
- Arctic and Antarctic ice dynamics
- Calibration and Measurement Techniques
- Marine and coastal ecosystems
- Methane Hydrates and Related Phenomena
- Wind Energy Research and Development
- Geophysics and Gravity Measurements
- Climate change and permafrost
- Machine Learning in Materials Science
- Environmental and Social Impact Assessments
- Coastal and Marine Management
- Energy Load and Power Forecasting
- Geology and Paleoclimatology Research
- Solar Radiation and Photovoltaics
- Hydrological Forecasting Using AI
- Integrated Energy Systems Optimization
- Climate Change Communication and Perception
- Climate Change and Health Impacts
- Geological and Tectonic Studies in Latin America
- Engineering Applied Research
- Fault Detection and Control Systems
NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory
2019-2025
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
2021-2025
Science Applications International Corporation (United States)
2020-2025
Water Institute of the Gulf
2023
Leidos (United States)
2022-2023
Georgia State University
2008
Abstract We describe the baseline coupled model configuration and simulation characteristics of GFDL's Earth System Model Version 4.1 (ESM4.1), which builds on component developments at GFDL over 2013–2018 for carbon‐chemistry‐climate contributing to sixth phase Coupled Intercomparison Project. In contrast with CM4.0 development effort that focuses ocean resolution physical climate, ESM4.1 comprehensiveness system interactions. features doubled horizontal both atmosphere (2° 1°) (1° 0.5°)...
Abstract We document the configuration and emergent simulation features from Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) OM4.0 ocean/sea ice model. OM4 serves as component for GFDL climate Earth system models. It is also used science research contributing to Coupled Model Intercomparison Project version 6 Ocean Project. The ocean of uses Modular sea 2 Sea Ice Simulator, which have identical horizontal grid layouts (Arakawa C‐grid). follow Coordinated Ocean‐sea Reference Experiments protocol...
Abstract Compared to the Arctic, seasonal predictions of Antarctic sea ice have received relatively little attention. In this work, we utilize three coupled dynamical prediction systems developed at Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory assess skill and predictability ice. These systems, based on FLOR, SPEAR_LO, SPEAR_MED models, differ in their model components, initialization techniques, atmospheric resolution, biases. Using suites retrospective initialized spanning 1992–2018, investigate...
Abstract The next‐generation seasonal prediction system is built as part of the Seamless System for Prediction and EArth Research (SPEAR) at Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). SPEAR an effort to develop a seamless research across time scales. ensemble‐based ocean data assimilation (ODA) updated Modular Ocean Model Version 6 (MOM6), component SPEAR. initial conditions predictions, well state estimation, are produced by MOM6 ODA in...
Abstract A subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) prediction system was recently developed using the GFDL Seamless System for Prediction and Earth Research (SPEAR) global coupled model. Based on 20-yr hindcast results (2000–19), boreal wintertime (November–April) Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) skill is revealed to reach 30 days measured before anomaly correlation coefficient of real-time multivariate (RMM) index drops 0.5. However, when MJO partitioned into four distinct propagation patterns, range...
Abstract A key challenge with the wind energy utilization is that winds, and thus power, are highly variable on seasonal to interannual timescales because of atmospheric variability. There a growing need skillful prediction for system planning operation. Here we demonstrate model’s capability in producing over U.S. Great Plains during peak seasons (winter spring), using products from climate model. The dominant source mainly comes year-to-year variations El Niño-Southern Oscillation tropical...
Abstract This study shows that the frequency of North American summertime (June–August) heat extremes is skillfully predicted several months in advance newly developed Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) Seamless System for Prediction and Earth Research (SPEAR) seasonal forecast system. Using a statistical optimization method, average predictability time, we identify three large-scale components summer are predictable with significant correlation skill. One component, which related...
Increases in the intensity and frequency of heatwaves are already evident observational record, these increases expected to be further amplified future climate projections with greater radiative forcing. However, it is unclear how temperature extremes will respond regionally emissions reductions declines greenhouse gases later 21st century, such as through implementation global mitigation efforts. Here, we evaluate a set large ensemble experiments that simulate hypothetical century overshoot...
Abstract The seasonal prediction skill of tropical cyclone (TC) activity is evaluated using the Seamless System for Prediction and Earth Research (SPEAR), a modeling system developed at Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) experimental real-time forecasts. Compared with previous GFDL models, SPEAR demonstrates improved in predicting TC western North Pacific, while exhibiting comparable or slightly degraded eastern Pacific Atlantic. These changes do not always align large-scale...
Abstract Atmospheric rivers (ARs) exert significant socioeconomic impacts in western North America, where 30 of the annual precipitation is determined by ARs that occur less than 15 wintertime. are thus beneficial to water supply but can produce extreme hazards when making landfall. While most prevailing research has focused on subseasonal ( 5 weeks) prediction ARs, only limited efforts have been made for AR forecasts multiseasonal timescales 3 months) crucial resource management and...
Abstract The Kuroshio Extension (KE), an eastward-flowing jet located in the Pacific western boundary current system, exhibits prominent seasonal-to-decadal variability, which is crucial for understanding climate variations northern midlatitudes. We explore representation and prediction skill KE GFDL SPEAR (Seamless System Prediction Earth Research) coupled model. Two different approaches are used to generate reanalyses forecasts: 1) restoring model’s SST atmospheric variables toward...
Abstract Research over the past decade has demonstrated that dynamical forecast systems can skillfully predict pan-Arctic sea ice extent (SIE) on seasonal time scale; however, there have been fewer assessments of prediction skill user-relevant spatial scales. In this work, we evaluate regional Arctic SIE predictions made with Forecast-Oriented Low Ocean Resolution (FLOR) and Seamless System for Prediction Earth (SPEAR_MED) developed at NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory. Compared to...
Abstract Humid heat extreme (HHE) is a type of compound weather event that poses severe risks to human health. Skillful forecasts HHE months in advance are crucial for developing strategies enhance community resilience events 1,2 . This study demonstrates the frequency summertime southeastern United States (SEUS) can be skillfully predicted 0–1 using SPEAR (Seamless system Prediction and EArth Research) seasonal forecast system. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) tropical North Atlantic (TNA)...
Abstract Quantifying the response of atmospheric rivers (ARs) to radiative forcing is challenging due uncertainties caused by internal climate variability, differences in shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs), and methods used AR detection algorithms. In addition, requirement medium‐to‐high model resolution ensemble sizes explicitly simulate ARs their statistics can be computationally expensive. this study, we leverage unique 50‐km large ensembles generated a Geophysical Fluid Dynamics...
Abstract Midlatitude baroclinic waves drive extratropical weather and climate variations, but their predictability beyond 2 weeks has been deemed low. Here we analyze a large ensemble of simulations forced by observed sea surface temperatures (SSTs) demonstrate that seasonal variations wave activity (BWA) are potentially predictable. This potential is denoted robust BWA responses to SST forcings. To probe regional sources the predictability, regression analysis applied SST-forced...
The rapid day-to-day temperature swings associated with extratropical storm tracks can cause cascading infrastructure failure and impact human outdoor activities, thus research on seasonal prediction predictability of extreme is huge societal importance. To measure the surface air (SAT) variations winter tracks, a Temperature Swing Index (TSI) formulated as standard deviation 24-h-difference-filtered data 6-hourly SAT. dominant term governing TSI variability shown to be proportional product...
Abstract The frequency and intensity of heat extremes over the United States have increased since mid‐20th century are projected to increase with additional anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing. We define as summertime (June–August) daily maximum 2m temperatures that exceed historical records. examine characteristics near‐future using observations past future projections 100 ensemble members from three coupled global climate models large simulations. find ensembles capture trend variability...
Abstract One of the most puzzling observed features recent climate has been a multidecadal surface cooling trend over subpolar Southern Ocean (SO). In this study we use large ensembles simulations with multiple models to role SO meridional overturning circulation (MOC) in these sea temperature (SST) trends. We find that competing processes play prominent roles, consistent mechanisms proposed literature for cooling. Early (twentieth century and early twenty-first century) internal variability...
Climate action planning continues to accelerate rapidly across the globe as communities seek prepare thrive in an uncertain future. is a particularly contentious and complex topic southern United States, however, because of significant economic reliance on industries that contribute substantially greenhouse gas emissions, due complicated relationship between industry persistent racial inequities distrust communities, businesses, state governments. Within last decade, research efforts have...
Solar energy plays a crucial role in the transition towards sustainable and resilient future. One challenge that remains is considerable year-to-year variation solar resources. As result, precise seasonal predictions become pivotal for effective system planning operation.  This study employs GFDL’s Seamless System Prediction Earth (SPEAR) to evaluate irradiance prediction across United States.  Notably, SPEAR demonstrates high skill predicting particularly western...